NCAAB
Thursday, March 5
March Madness is NOW! Betting this week's NCAAB conference tournaments
For those that think March Madness doesn’t begin until the selection committee has their say on that tense Sunday in mid-March, we say “WRONG”.
The official and oft-forgotten kickoff to the NCAA postseason begins this week when 13 mid-major conferences open their respective conference tournaments. Starting Tuesday, these leagues will fill out the first outright selections of the national tournament and, along the way, likely burst the bubble of a few major conference programs on the NCAA fringe.
Chances are you haven’t paid attention to these little leagues during the course of the season, since many of their games go without odds. Hell, you may not know some of them even existed. So we’re giving you a head start when it comes to capping these conference tournaments, pointing out the favorites, value underdog bets and live long shots to win.
America East (March 4, 8, 14)
Favorite: Albany Great Danes (21-8, 15-1) – With the America East a campus-sites tournament – no host school – Albany has home court to the finals. The Great Danes give up just 59 points per game at home – ninth lowest in the country.
Underdog: Stony Brook Seawolves (21-10, 12-4) – The lone conference blemish on Albany’s resume comes courtesy of the Seawolves, who ride a six-game winning streak into the postseason. Momentum is worth its weight in gold come March.
Long Shot: New Hampshire Wildcats (18-11, 11-5) – The Wildcats lost twice to Albany by a combined three points and have a win over Stony Brook. New Hampshire can knock down the 3-pointer and defend against it – two very key stats for playoff basketball.
Atlantic Sun (March 3-8)
Favorite: North Florida Ospreys -130 (20-11, 12-2) – North Florida gets home-court throughout this tournament, and can pile on the points in a hurry – averaging 83 points per home game (fifth in the country). It won both meetings with Florida Gulf Coast, who many pick to win this tournament.
Underdog: Florida Gulf Coast Eagles +270 (21-9, 11-3) – The Eagles stumbled at the end of the year with two straight losses. Florida Gulf Coast is known more for its defense (39.1 FG% def) then the high-flying offense it wowed the nation with two years ago.
Long shot: South Carolina Upstate Spartans +370 (21-10, 8-6) – North Florida’s two conference losses came to the Spartans, who also played FGCU tough. South Carolina Upstate has a plus-5.4 scoring margin and the conference’s top scorer Ty Greene, who dropped 39 on North Florida and 31 on FGCU.
Big South (March 3-8)
Favorite: Charleston Southern Buccaneers (19-10, 13-5) – The Buccaneers locked up the No. 1 seed with a thrilling triple-overtime win against High Point Saturday. Charleston Southern can fill it up at home (averaging 80 points) and lives by the 3-pointer, and dies by the 3-pointer (27.4 3-pt attempts – second most).
Underdog: Radford Highlanders (21-10, 12-6) – Radford grabbed the No. 4 seed with a win in its season finale. The Highlanders have two wins over High Point and a road win at Charleston and boast a deep rotation with seven players averaging 5.9 points or more.
Long shot: Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (18-13, 10-8) – The Bulldogs managed to win 18 games despite being ranked among the worst defensive programs in the country (74.2 points against). Gardner-Webb has been able to overwhelm the top teams in the conference with its explosive offense (75.1 points per game).
Colonial Athletic Association (March 6-9)
Favorite: James Madison Dukes +1,000 (19-12, 12-6) – Even though the Dukes are ranked No. 4 in the conference tournament, they take six wins in their last seven games (5-2 ATS) into the postseason. That momentum separates them from a deadlocked pack at the top of the conference. William & Mary are +200 faves to win the Colonial at the Superbook in Las Vegas but dropped three of its last five games of the season. The CAA is much more wide open than the odds would indicate.
Underdog: NC Wilmington Seahawks +600 (17-12, 12-6) – The Seahawks crapped the bed in the season finale, losing to Elon but has knocked off Northeastern and James Madison in recent weeks and sits No. 2 in the tournament seeding, and will play a banged-up Drexel team (missing CAA leading scorer Damion Lee) or a 8-23 College of Charleston squad.
Long shot: Elon Phoenix +1,200 (14-17, 6-12) – Elon came on late in the season with three straight wins to finish up, beating Northeastern and UNCW in that span. The Phoenix also beat No. 1-seed William & Mary earlier this year, who they will likely face in Round 2 of the CAA tournament.
Horizon League (March 3-10)
Favorite: Valparaiso Crusaders EVEN (26-5, 13-3) – Since Valpo won the league, it gets to host the tournament - a sweet deal for a team that went 13-1 at home. The Crusaders don’t budge much on defense and don’t give away second looks at the basket either, allowing just 7.5 offensive rebounds per game.
Underdog: Green Bay Phoenix +150 (23-7, 12-4) – Seeded No. 2, Green Bay avoided a potential meeting with Cleveland State in the semifinals (lost both games to the Vikings). The Phoenix won the regular season title last year but were upset in the opener. They’ll be cautious of a letdown this time around.
Long shot: Detroit Titans +350 (14-17, 7-9) – Detroit is sitting No. 5 in the tournament and no one ahead of them wants them to advance. The Titans have victories over Valparaiso, Cleveland State, and Oakland and was competitive in February with a 5-2 ATS record. Detroit is a dangerous 3-point threat at 39.1 percent in league games.
Metro Atlantic Athletic (March 5-9)
Favorite: Iona Gaels +120 (24-7, 17-3) – The Gaels can light up the scoreboard with an offense that posts 79.6 points per game – seventh in the country. Iona did, however, lay an egg in the season finale to St. Peter’s, marking the fourth straight game the Gaels have failed to cover.
Underdog: Rider Broncs +500 (21-10, 15-5) – Rider was one of the best bets during the regular season, going 17-9 ATS in its 26 lined games. The Broncs had a strong true road record at 11-4 and played some heavyweights in Kansas and Michigan State early in the year.
Long shot: Niagara Purple Eagles +300 (8-21, 7-13) – The Purple Eagles picked up half their wins in the final four games of the season, including a win over Rider, holding opponents to about 40 percent shooting. Niagara also played Iona to a one-point game, losing 80-79 at home. Momentum breeds upsets.
Missouri Valley Conference (March 5-8)
Favorite: Wichita State Shockers -300 (27-3, 17-1) – Wichita State is going dancing regardless of their tournament turnout. Wichita State proved it was top dog in the MVC with a convincing win over Northern Iowa and has covered in five straight heading into the postseason.
Underdog: Northern Iowa Panthers +250 (27-3, 16-2) – While UNI’s record is very close to WSU, Saturday’s 14-point defeat to the Shockers showed how much space is really between these programs. The Panthers give up just 54.6 points per game – fourth lowest in the country – and seemingly have an easier side of the bracket.
Long shot: Illinois State Redbirds +800 (15-15, 11-7) – With ranked rivals above them in the standings, Illinois State is giving great value in the MVC tournament. The Redbirds bring a four-game winning streak into the postseason and covered in both losses to Wichita State.
Northeast Conference (March 5,8,11)
Favorite: St. Francis (NY) Terriers (21-10, 15-3) – The Terriers limp into the postseason off a loss and a slim overtime victory in their final two games of the schedule. St. Francis has home court throughout the tournament, losing just one conference game in front of its fans.
Underdog: Robert Morris Colonials (16-14, 12-6) – Robert Morris takes a three-game roll into the tournament and was the lone Northeast team to come out of Peter Aquilone Court in Brooklyn with a victory. Rodney Pryor is playing the best basketball in the conference averaging 25.5 points in the last four games.
Long shot: Sacred Heart Pioneers (15-16, 9-9) – Sacred Heart closed the campaign with back-to-back wins and went 6-2 in its last eight games of the schedule. The Pioneers love to push the tempo, averaging 73.4 points on 72.3 possessions per game – running the 20th fastest tempo in college hoops.
Ohio Valley Conference (March 4-7)
Favorite: Murray State Racers -125 (26-4, 16-0) – The Racers were perfect in conference play but all that could be for nothing if Murray State can’t get the job done in the postseason. The Racers can put up the points - 78.8 per game – but do have flaws on defense and at the charity stripe.
Underdog: Belmont Bruins +260 (19-10, 11-5) – The Bruins earned the No. 3 seed in the tournament thanks to a late-season push that won four straight, including a victory over Eastern Kentucky. Belmont can also fill the stats sheet but hasn’t been its best away from home.
Long shot: Morehead State Eagles +260 (15-16, 10-6) – Morehead State also brings momentum into the postseason with three wins in a row. Those victories did come against the bottom half of the OVC East, but the Eagles have a swarming defense that turns mistakes into easy offense – forcing a league-high 14.9 turnovers per game.
Patriot League (March 3,5,8,11)
Favorite: Colgate Raiders +270 (15-16, 12-6) – Colgate finished as the No. 2 seed but has five wins in its last seven games, and those two losses have come by a combined three points. The Raiders also won both meetings with No. 1 Bucknell (+165) this season. This team can bring the rain from downtown, averaging 7.8 3-pointers per game on 40.2 percent shooting – ninth best in the country.
Underdog: Lehigh Mountain Hawks +425 (16-13, 10-8) – Lehigh takes on American U in Round 2, a team it beat in its last meeting, then would likely face Colgate in the semifinal. The Mountain Hawks have given the Raiders a tough go in their two clashes, and have a convincing win over No. 1 Bucknell. It could happen for the No. 3 seed.
Long shot: Lafayette Leopards +500 (17-12, 9-9) – The Leopards are dead eyes from downtown, shooting 40.3 percent from distance and knocking down almost eight 3-pointers per game. Lafayette ranks 26th in scoring at 75 points per game and took down Bucknell, Colgate and Lehigh this season.
Southern Conference (March 6-9)
Favorite: Wofford Terriers -125 (25-6, 16-2) – Wofford runs a very methodical offense, sucking almost every second off the shot clock. That’s helped the Terriers limit opponents to just 59.9 points per game. They bring a five-game winning streak into the postseason, going 4-1 ATS in that span.
Underdog: Chattanooga Mocs +300 (22-9, 15-3) – The Mocs run at a much quicker tempo than their Southern rivals, scoring 72.8 points per game. They won their last meeting at home versus Wofford and boast four players averaging double figures.
Long shot: Samford Bulldogs +1,500 (13-18, 6-12) – Samford has a tough slate of schedule to finish the season, playing five of its final seven games on the road. The Bulldogs went 3-4 in that span with a 5-2 ATS mark. Samford has a freshman star in Christen Cunningham, who is playing his best ball of the season.
Summit League (March 7-10)
Favorite: South Dakota State -110 /North Dakota State +500 (21-9, 12-4/20-9, 12-4) – Nearly identical records from these rivals. Since they’re seeding No. 1 and No. 2, there’s a very good chance we see them in the final. Both closed the regular season with a loss. They split the season series but No. 1 SDSU has the softer side of the bracket this March.
Underdog: Oral Roberts Golden Eagles +500 (17-13, 10-6) – Oral Roberts took a win over NDSU last week and closed with a victory over Denver. The Golden Eagles are without standout guard Korey Billbury, who was suspended at the end of the year. And while they’ve done OK without him in those two games, they will miss him in the backcourt when the postseason pressure builds.
Long shot: IUPU - Ft. Wayne Mastodons +500 (16-13, 9-7) – The Mastodons have resume wins over North and South Dakota State and come into the postseason on an 8-2 run, going 9-1 ATs in that stretch. IPFW can win with offense or lock teams down on defense.
West Coast Conference (March 5-10)
Favorite: Gonzaga Bulldogs -300 (29-2, 17-1) – The Bulldogs are coming off a loss to BYU in the season finale, which probably cost them a shot at a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Gonzaga gets it done on both ends of the floor and that loss to the Cougars is likely a wake-up call for Mark Few’s squad.
Underdog: BYU Cougars +300 (23-8, 13-5) – The Cougars may have just punched their ticket to the Big Dance with that win over Gonzaga, and run the risk of a letdown in their opener. Brigham Young is the top scoring team in the country but doesn’t play much in the way of defense.
Long shot: Pepperdine Waves +1,000 (17-12, 10-8) – Behind the Zags, St, Mary’s and BYU, Pepperdine is playing in the shadows of those WCC heavyweights. The Waves won both games with the Cougars, knocked off the Gaels and gave the Bulldogs fits. They’ve held their last four opponents to an average of just 54 points.