Michigan/Oregon thoughts and opinions

Thunder · Sep 14, 2003

Another game of unbeatens as the Wolverines pay a visit to Oregon. Michigan started out the year with a couple of cupcakes and then hammered the Irish Saturday in Michigan, while the Ducks have played three softer teams. The line I saw was Michigan by 7.5 and was wondering if this line might be inflated a bit.

Michigan giving up more than a touchdown on the road might be just a bit too much. Thoughts please...

EveryGamblersDream · Sep 14, 2003

I like the Ducks here & see the outright victory for them. I got on them +8.5 buying the extra .5 point.

I'm one of the few who aren't ranting & raving about Michigan. They beat up on 2 cupcakes & a mediocre team that was overrated last year & will get exposed this year.

It is natural that people will love Michigan here & see the Ducks or any Pac 10 team having no shot. I think they meet a fierce challenge next Saturday.

Kodiak7 · Sep 14, 2003

wow.. egd.. The duck to win hey??? WOW!!

Thunder the oddsmakers don't know what to do with Michigan this team is BUCKING the trend they have set for years.. I just watched the Michigan Weekly and I will have plenty of thoughts on this game this week! AS OF NOW JUMP ON THE WAGON!!!

MICHIGAN RUNS OVER AND AROUND THE DUCKS!

WCBias · Sep 14, 2003

Big Bear...

You are absolutely right, Don't be fooled by the Ducks record against very poor talent. There defense is horrible and will get torched by Michigan.

Dante · Sep 14, 2003

I think michigan wins going away

Thunder · Sep 14, 2003

Kodiak..Do you get that Michigan Newspaper? I think its called something like The Wolverine. Saw it online...

waymac · Sep 14, 2003

I am not sold on either team as of yet,Michigan has looked dominate but it is against the lower half of college football. Oregon can put up points and with this line you have back door open. Some trends Michigan is 1-4SU and 0-5ATS on their first road game of the year. Usually trends don't mean much but this shows that Carr has troubles getting team settled on the road Oregon is 8-3ATS vs Big ten

ppeter · Sep 15, 2003

I love Oregon here as I think Michigan will still be celebrating their convincing victory over the hated Irish. This is a wierd "sandwich" game for Michigan as they start conf. play next week on the road (albiet against Indiana). From what I see of Michigan, Chris Perry is basically the heart of the offense. I think Oregon will stack the line to stop him and force Navarre to beat them through the air. If that happens, Oregon can trade points with the wolves. Anybody ever been to a home game at Atzen Stadium? I have. Because of its unusual acoustics (it is a converted quarry pit), it is one of the loudest, if not the loudest venue on the NCAA even though it only seats about 45k. I think Oregon has the offense to hang here and may pull the outright upset. Also, based on the early results, the Pac 10 appears to be the stronger conference and the Big 10 is really overrated.

Caveat: I am getting my ASS completely handed to me this college season. I am hitting under 40%. That means I am completely off sync for this game or I will catch fire to regress to the mean (I am usually a high 50% picker). Take it for what it is worth.

silver7 · Sep 15, 2003

Just a word of empathy. Sat. nite my thoughts were the same, that for some reason this yr I`m out of sync! Usually do very well on CFB, up till now I`m just keping my head above 53%, barely. Hope I hit my stride starting this wk. Lots of good looking "dogs" on the slate. LOL

Kodiak7 · Sep 15, 2003

Thunder. no I don't, and yes its called the Wolverine. I'm not sure why I don't???

I get alot of info from a couple of coaches at UofM.. In other sports.. And 2 baeball players I handled coming up that are now at UofM.. And NO I don't make it gambling related when speaking with any of them....

Michigan WINS going away.. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE THING ABOUT MICHIGAN SO-FAR... THE SPEED OF THERE D-LINE! WATCH-OUT....

MICHIGAN 34 - DUCKS 20

jwunderdog · Sep 15, 2003

Have not looked at game but if I take it I will play THE DUCKS, WIll not bet against Oregon as a dog at home.

As I said haven't bet it yet, but still not sure how good either of these teams are. Oregon has played no one and I am not so sure ND is a good team. Plus Oregon runs a completely different offense then ND so should be interesting. I think Oregon is better then ND.

We will see.

GreenDrake · Sep 15, 2003

Last week Vegas opens up with Michigan at -10 1/2 after setting the line -6 before the season opens up. Now they know as well as everyone the close games in this series and this line is begging for ND $$. They open themselve up to 2 key numbers 7 & 10 for middles. I did not think they made a mistake.

Pre-season they made UM a 4 point favorite in this game and now once again they post a line of 8 and again open themselves to a key number for a middle. The history of how tough a place this is to play is no secret and UM history as poor road favorite also known. Yet this line is begging for big home dog $$$ on Oregon.

I like UM - 8.

FairWarning · Sep 15, 2003

I cannot see Oregon stopping the running backs, but Michigan has played poorly out west in the past.

WCBias · Sep 15, 2003

FYI...Oregon has historically been a strong play at home. However, after a 6-0 start last year, Oregon lost 6 of their last 7 games, five by double digit margins, and two of those were at Autzen (Washington and USC).

Oregon did nothing to improve their defense, and have lost star DT Ngata for the year.
They haven't really looked that impressive defensively this year dispite playing three pretty bad teams (Miss. State, Nevada, and Arizona).

This game goes as Michigan dictates. If they bring their A game...they win going away. But if they let Oregon linger, they could be in for a battle. Either way, Michigan should score plenty of points here, as they are vastly better than any of the Ducks previous opponents.

One more item of note, just because Michigan has relied on a solid running game..that is just game planning. Don't count out their passing game because Navarre is a good QB. Oregon's DB's just waiting to get torched like last year.

GatorESH · Sep 15, 2003

Peter,

I'm not trying to be a homer, but The Swamp seats 90,000+ in a stadium that resembles a hockey arena in it's architecture. The fans are right on the field. There is no way 45,000 in Oregon can compare to the noise in Hogtown. Michigan plays in front of 100,000 rabid fans, they will cover the 7.5 or 8.

BOL, ESH

ppeter · Sep 15, 2003

http://www.clarionledger.com/news/sports/football2002/msu/week1/msu0828a.html

DanTanna · Sep 15, 2003

Right now Michigan is the best team in football. I don't see how anyone can bet against them. They've got the fastest defense, bar none, in their conference. They've got a fifth year QB who has grown up since last year. They've got a RB that will probably win the Heisman if he keeps this pace up.
Michigan will absolutely pound Oregon.

GatorESH · Sep 15, 2003

Pete,

Thanks for the link, good read. But I still hold fast to my opinion because I'm an intransigent asshole Gator fan.

Beat Tennessee!!!

GoBlue · Sep 15, 2003

I normally avoid these threads because I just can't judge my alma mater objectively. Any analysis I try to do on UM usually ends up with me saying "f-ck that, Michigan's gonna win easy"

Anyway, having said that, I have to agree with Kodiak. Something is different this year about the Wolverines - three straight covers?! Unheard of for Lloyd Carr. There's a sense of urgency with this team, two straight losses to OSU and then having to watch them win it all is not sitting well at Schembechler Hall. I wouldn't go so far as to say his job is on the line, but the whispering has started by some people who you probably don't want discussing your future if you're a head coach at UM.

Enough blabbering - logic says take the Ducks for all the reasons mentioned above (haven't won on the west coast since 1/1/98, have been horrid on the road non-conference the last few years, Navarre plays like crap on the road typically, etc.) - but I'm going UM. Oregon's secondary was a$$ last year, and it might be worse this year - and losing Ngata doesn't help. UM will score 30+, and their secondary will hold Oregon under 20. But I'm just a Wolverine - what do I know?!

yimmy9 · Sep 15, 2003

With Michagan 3-0 ATS I believe I will go with the Oregon. I really can't recall a team going 4-0 ATS to start a season. Anyway Oregon is very hard place to play.