Mich ST. line

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What's up with this line? is this a sucker bet? The spread dropped even after over 70% is on MiSt.
 
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I'm at a total loss on this one. I grabbed Mich St at -5.5 and am sticking with it.
 

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I hope it's a "sucker" bet just like Alabama was last week because I took the Spartans at -4.5. Jetplane knows his stuff and thinks Wiscy is the correct side but I like Dantonio at home going against a team that despite the win last week still isn't playing Wisconsin football.

They aren't stopping the run and at the same time don't have a RB and O-line that can get'em over 100 yards. MSU's D scares me a little but I think they win the turnover battle and win by a TD.

The typical Illini choke job last week made Wisconsin look a lot better than they are.
 

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This is a sucker bet. Wisconsin is the play here. Look for a big letdown from the Spartans here. They are coming off their two biggest games of the year back to back (against Ohio State and Michigan) and they will still be celebrating their win over Michigan last week. They ain't getting fired up to play 1-4 Wisky.

On the flip side, Wisky took it to a solid Illinois squad last week and is desperate for wins to make the postseason. Wisky has actually outgained conference opponents on the season and they have already played all the conference heavyweights. Wisky was overrated earlier in the season, and now they are most certainly underrated. Basically, you have two evenly matched teams here, but one team has a lot more motivation than the other.

Take the Badgers and don't think twice. The unnatural line movement is the tip off here of the side you should be on.
 

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7-2 squad that has the ability to make a run here. If they prevail here.. they will win over Purdue and facing PSU last. Im seeing 4.5 again which is nice. MSU or nothing.
 

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I really hate seeing this kind of scenario. The reverse line movement with 70% on MSU is not something to ignor. As much as we analyze games and numbers we are not at least most of us are not "insiders". I have not done anything drastic yet but I'm seriously reconsidering this play.
 

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I really hate seeing this kind of scenario. The reverse line movement with 70% on MSU is not something to ignor. As much as we analyze games and numbers we are not at least most of us are not "insiders". I have not done anything drastic yet but I'm seriously reconsidering this play.

At the end of the day, MSU is an average big ten team. They have barely outgained conference foes despite their nice conf. record. Many things have been going their way this year. On the flip side, Wisky has just been beating themselves. They are not a bad team and they showed what they are capable of last week.

This is world's different than Tennessee/Bama. Bama was a very solid, powerful football team (unlike MSU), outgaining SEC foes by a wide margin, and Tennessee was not an underrated team. They just plain suck. They can't move the ball. What is underrated about that? Nothing!!

Wisconsin can move the ball, they just need to start finishing better and their results will improve.
 

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At the end of the day, MSU is an average big ten team. They have barely outgained conference foes despite their nice conf. record. Many things have been going their way this year. On the flip side, Wisky has just been beating themselves. They are not a bad team and they showed what they are capable of last week.

This is world's different than Tennessee/Bama. Bama was a very solid, powerful football team (unlike MSU), outgaining SEC foes by a wide margin, and Tennessee was not an underrated team. They just plain suck. They can't move the ball. What is underrated about that? Nothing!!

Wisconsin can move the ball, they just need to start finishing better and their results will improve.


Wisky did not play that good against Illinois last week, the Illini just played THAT bad. The Illini have intecepted ONE ball this entire year and are horrible at creating turnovers (tied for last place in all of CFB!!!). This played right into the favor of Wisconsin last week with their bad QB play. The Illini were up 17-10 in the 2nd half, were in the red zone to go up by 2 scores and Juice Williams threw a tipped pass that was intercepted and brought back 70 yards. The Illini then gave up a 3rd and 17 for a Badger TD. Not to mention that was the 2nd redzone TO for Illinois. None of the TO's were forced by Wisconsin, they were all bonehead plays by the Illini.

The Illini have bad coaching, a young team and a really bad defense. MSU on the other hand are a lot better ball club and are one of the better teams in the league at creating TO's. The only thing I don't like here is the line movement but everything else is a go.

With no QB, no go to receiver, half of a running game, below average defense this team is in trouble on the road. The refs will be the only thing that keep this game close and I wouldn't rule that out either the way the Big 10 refs have called games so far. Wisconsin's 1st TD came off a dropped ball that was challenged and never over turned even though it was rolling around on the ground (the announcers were beside themselves)!
 
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I'm not saying Wisky is that good, but you must admit that they are not as bad as their 1-4 record in conference play and this is a big letdown spot for the Spartans.
 

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I have Wisconsin rated 2 1/2 points better than Michigan State on a neutral field (basically a pick'em at Michigan St.) The value is with the Badgers and that's why the sharps are betting them.
 

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I have Wisconsin rated 2 1/2 points better than Michigan State on a neutral field (basically a pick'em at Michigan St.) The value is with the Badgers and that's why the sharps are betting them.

I would agree...
 

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This is a sucker bet. Wisconsin is the play here. Look for a big letdown from the Spartans here. They are coming off their two biggest games of the year back to back (against Ohio State and Michigan) and they will still be celebrating their win over Michigan last week. They ain't getting fired up to play 1-4 Wisky.

On the flip side, Wisky took it to a solid Illinois squad last week and is desperate for wins to make the postseason. Wisky has actually outgained conference opponents on the season and they have already played all the conference heavyweights. Wisky was overrated earlier in the season, and now they are most certainly underrated. Basically, you have two evenly matched teams here, but one team has a lot more motivation than the other.

Take the Badgers and don't think twice. The unnatural line movement is the tip off here of the side you should be on.

Beating Michigan is as good as winning the Rose Bowl to the Spartans. Like Wisc and under here.
 

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Badgers

The sharp bet here is Wisc +4 1/2
Vegas is begging you to take Mi St
It is one of a couple of trap plays this
weekend.....
 

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I'm not saying Wisky is that good, but you must admit that they are not as bad as their 1-4 record in conference play and this is a big letdown spot for the Spartans.
Home team 3-0SU last 3 which Mich st won 2 ATS vs Wisc.
Mich st might have a let down early in this game, they will have their momentum back if Wisc. making mistake,specially Mich St plays at home, and trend are home field took all 3 last 3 meeting. Mich St is playing loose now, Wisc. needs this game and pressure is on them. This is a blow out game: 37-17
 

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Big10Dominator what do think about this one?

People thought Minny was a trap last week and those who thought it was easy money rolled. A lot of sharps also took Michigan last week even though they haven't covered really all year. I hate seeing reverse line movement and games that look like traps but I can't make it the number one reason to make my call.

ND200 made some great points regarding Wiscy's Offensive numbers compared to MSU but they are so bad in the red-zone and so turn over prone I still don't like the them.
 

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Mich St

Will find a way to win. Wisky kicking game is unusually poor as compared to past seasons. The game figures to be close however, so would not be surprised at all with a 2 or 3 point result.
 

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