Well because with this wager you are much more safe if something crazy happens and the Heat somehow get knocked out, you then still have OKC (and San Antonio) who will more than likely get through and I believe the Thunder beats any Eastern Team other than Miami.
I would prefer the wager to not have San Antonio in it at all for a smaller price but I haven't seen it.
It may show up though...
Yeah I don't look for safety in my bets, it is not a blue chip stock vs a high beta/PE tech. I look for value, this is pretty much it.
I see your point though.
I think the "injury/unknown variables" is very flawed reasoning (actually I know this is very flawed reasoning, I'm just being nice)