Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
Not the Kansas City Chiefs…
…not the Cincinnati Bengals…
Just Miami. The Dolphins are the lone team in the AFC still undefeated in 2023. It’s not shocking, but at this point, few would have thought they’d be alone in that category.
Can the Bills be the first to knock them off?
Not only do the Bills need to win to keep pace in the AFC… there’s the division, too.
While Buffalo has won two games, their lone loss came against the New York Jets.
If the Bills hope to make it four-straight AFC East titles, they likely have to win this one.
The Dolphins offense relies heavily on speed. Receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have plenty of it.
Can Buffalo’s secondary keep up? Like the Dolphins riding a high of scoring 70 points, the Bills defense will be heading into Week 4 with some confidence after notching four interceptions last week against the Washington Commanders. Two of those came from defensive backs: Micah Hyde and Tre’Davious White.
Miami’s quarterback Tua Tagovailoa gets the ball out faster than any other in the NFL. He has a 2.36 average time to throw.
The Bills are fresh off nine sacks against Washington. It’s going to be very difficult to even get one or two against Tagovailoa… but those could be crucial.
All that said about the Dolphins… Bills quarterback Josh Allen must hate the color turquoise.
Even in his early years navigating the NFL, he still seems to always bring his best against Miami.
Overall, he’s 8-2 against the Dolphins (including a last-second drop from Charles Clay way back in 2018 leading to a loss).
Of all games played in Orchard Park, Allen’s 5-0 and the Bills average 37.4 total points in those outings.
Bills pass rush vs. Tua Tagovailoa
The Bills defensive line is coming off a huge performance against the Commanders where they registered 15 quarterback hits and had seven different defenders generate at least four pressures according to Next Gen Stats. It's a confidence-boosting performance that can be a big positive heading into a game against a QB who leads the NFL in several statistical categories.
Miami's Tua Tagovailoa gets the ball out faster than any other in the NFL with a 2.36 average time to throw. Due to his speed in getting the ball out, it's been tough for opponents pass rush to get to Tagovailoa with enough time to be disrupt him. The QB has only been sacked once and hit a league-low five times through three games.
That doesn't mean the Buffalo pass rush group can't put pressure on him. They'll just have to be effective in different ways. Right now, the Bills are tied for the second-most sacks in the NFL with 12 and have the fourth-most quarterback hits with 23.
So far this season, when Tagovailoa does feel the pressure his passer rating drops to 57.7 compared to a clean pocket when it's 137.7. Through three games, the Bills have the highest pressure rate in the NFL at 13.3% according to TruMedia.
So far this season, when Tagovailoa does feel the pressure his passer rating drops to 57.7 compared to a clean pocket when it's 137.7.
Through three games, the Bills have the highest pressure rate in the NFL at 13.3% according to TruMedia.
Can the Bills defense run it back vs. the fastest offense in the NFL?
It wasn't just the Bills defensive line that had a standout performance in Week 3 because the whole defense deserves credit for the impact they had against the Commanders. They became the first team since 1985 to record nine sacks and four interceptions in a single game.
The group is second-best in the NFL allowing an average of 11.7 points per game and they're getting ready to play the team who leads the NFL with an average of 43.3 points per game thanks to players like wide receiver Tyreek Hill, wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert. Is it possible the Bills could take a few things from Week 3's game and use that against the NFL's fastest team?
Sean McDermott says the defense has continued to show signs of improvement to start the season because of the way they have prepared.
"It's the preparation players put themselves through and the coaches have done a phenomenal job of getting them prepared during the week," McDermott shared.
Of course, Sam Howell and Tua Tagovailoa are two different quarterbacks in two different offenses, but the fact that they posted the NFL's second-highest pressure rate in a game since 2016 means they have several things going right to start the season.
Miami doesn't just rank first in points per game, the team also leads the NFL in total yards per game (550.3), yards per play (8.4), rushing yards per game (188.3), passing yards per game (362), red zone efficiency (78.6), plays of at least 20 yards (20), score percentage per drive (58.3%), and the list goes on.
While the Miami offense is getting plenty of attention heading into the week, the Bills offense has been heating up of late as well. The Bills sit right behind Miami in overall NFL rankings averaging 30.33 points per game (2nd in the NFL). While Miami's offense ranks first in several statistical categories, its defense ranks more middle of the pack to start the season.
Through three games the Dolphins are allowing an average of 23.7 points per game (21st) and 361.3 total yards per game (23rd). To start the season the Bills offense is averaging 383.3 total yards per game (7th), a 51.2% 3rd down conversion rate (1st), a 53.3% score percentage per drive (4th) and 35:45 average time of possession (3rd).
When it comes to scoring opportunities against Miami, offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey thinks they'll need to operate at a high level knowing the challenges that a Vic Fangio defense can create.
"I think they've obviously got a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball up front and secondary wise, really that whole unit," Dorsey said of Miami's defense. "So I think right now they're playing extremely sound football. They're forcing the offenses to have to execute at a high level based off of what they're doing. They're creating problems for the quarterback with some of their disguises and the different things they do there.
"So it's a tough group that just really forces you to have to be on top of things to execute in both the run and pass game because they're physical, they play fast and they play sound in terms of what they're doing."
Allen's impressive home track record vs. Miami
QB Josh Allen has a great record against the Dolphins with eight wins in his 10 regular season games played against Miami so far in his career.
When you look at that record on home turf, it gets even better. Allen is 5-0 against the Dolphins when the game is in Buffalo.
In those five games, Allen has totaled 17 touchdowns and posted a 112.7 passer rating.
His offense has averaged 37.4 points per game, and he has averaged 240 passing yards per game in those contests.
Bills Mafia deserves a lot of credit for how they showed up and showed out at the Commanders game.
So much so that Sean McDermott went out of his way to talk about it on Monday when meeting with the media.
"You guys need to celebrate the fans more," McDermott said with a big smile. "I mean that was incredible.
I think it was louder when we were on defense than it was when they were on defense."
The team knows they'll need the help of their fans to show up and be loud for Sunday's big game.
While the Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in their six most recent games and 5-0 ATS in their five most recent road games,
they are just 1-9 SU in their last 10 games against the Bills and 0-7 SU in their last seven games in Buffalo.
On the other side, the Bills are 13-2 SU in their last 15 home games and 10-2 SU in their last 12 games overall.
The total has gone over in 12 of the last 17 head-to-head matchups between these teams.
Not the Kansas City Chiefs…
…not the Cincinnati Bengals…
Just Miami. The Dolphins are the lone team in the AFC still undefeated in 2023. It’s not shocking, but at this point, few would have thought they’d be alone in that category.
Can the Bills be the first to knock them off?
Not only do the Bills need to win to keep pace in the AFC… there’s the division, too.
While Buffalo has won two games, their lone loss came against the New York Jets.
If the Bills hope to make it four-straight AFC East titles, they likely have to win this one.
The Dolphins offense relies heavily on speed. Receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have plenty of it.
Can Buffalo’s secondary keep up? Like the Dolphins riding a high of scoring 70 points, the Bills defense will be heading into Week 4 with some confidence after notching four interceptions last week against the Washington Commanders. Two of those came from defensive backs: Micah Hyde and Tre’Davious White.
Miami’s quarterback Tua Tagovailoa gets the ball out faster than any other in the NFL. He has a 2.36 average time to throw.
The Bills are fresh off nine sacks against Washington. It’s going to be very difficult to even get one or two against Tagovailoa… but those could be crucial.
All that said about the Dolphins… Bills quarterback Josh Allen must hate the color turquoise.
Even in his early years navigating the NFL, he still seems to always bring his best against Miami.
Overall, he’s 8-2 against the Dolphins (including a last-second drop from Charles Clay way back in 2018 leading to a loss).
Of all games played in Orchard Park, Allen’s 5-0 and the Bills average 37.4 total points in those outings.
Bills pass rush vs. Tua Tagovailoa
The Bills defensive line is coming off a huge performance against the Commanders where they registered 15 quarterback hits and had seven different defenders generate at least four pressures according to Next Gen Stats. It's a confidence-boosting performance that can be a big positive heading into a game against a QB who leads the NFL in several statistical categories.
Miami's Tua Tagovailoa gets the ball out faster than any other in the NFL with a 2.36 average time to throw. Due to his speed in getting the ball out, it's been tough for opponents pass rush to get to Tagovailoa with enough time to be disrupt him. The QB has only been sacked once and hit a league-low five times through three games.
That doesn't mean the Buffalo pass rush group can't put pressure on him. They'll just have to be effective in different ways. Right now, the Bills are tied for the second-most sacks in the NFL with 12 and have the fourth-most quarterback hits with 23.
So far this season, when Tagovailoa does feel the pressure his passer rating drops to 57.7 compared to a clean pocket when it's 137.7. Through three games, the Bills have the highest pressure rate in the NFL at 13.3% according to TruMedia.
So far this season, when Tagovailoa does feel the pressure his passer rating drops to 57.7 compared to a clean pocket when it's 137.7.
Through three games, the Bills have the highest pressure rate in the NFL at 13.3% according to TruMedia.
Can the Bills defense run it back vs. the fastest offense in the NFL?
It wasn't just the Bills defensive line that had a standout performance in Week 3 because the whole defense deserves credit for the impact they had against the Commanders. They became the first team since 1985 to record nine sacks and four interceptions in a single game.
The group is second-best in the NFL allowing an average of 11.7 points per game and they're getting ready to play the team who leads the NFL with an average of 43.3 points per game thanks to players like wide receiver Tyreek Hill, wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert. Is it possible the Bills could take a few things from Week 3's game and use that against the NFL's fastest team?
Sean McDermott says the defense has continued to show signs of improvement to start the season because of the way they have prepared.
"It's the preparation players put themselves through and the coaches have done a phenomenal job of getting them prepared during the week," McDermott shared.
Of course, Sam Howell and Tua Tagovailoa are two different quarterbacks in two different offenses, but the fact that they posted the NFL's second-highest pressure rate in a game since 2016 means they have several things going right to start the season.
Miami doesn't just rank first in points per game, the team also leads the NFL in total yards per game (550.3), yards per play (8.4), rushing yards per game (188.3), passing yards per game (362), red zone efficiency (78.6), plays of at least 20 yards (20), score percentage per drive (58.3%), and the list goes on.
While the Miami offense is getting plenty of attention heading into the week, the Bills offense has been heating up of late as well. The Bills sit right behind Miami in overall NFL rankings averaging 30.33 points per game (2nd in the NFL). While Miami's offense ranks first in several statistical categories, its defense ranks more middle of the pack to start the season.
Through three games the Dolphins are allowing an average of 23.7 points per game (21st) and 361.3 total yards per game (23rd). To start the season the Bills offense is averaging 383.3 total yards per game (7th), a 51.2% 3rd down conversion rate (1st), a 53.3% score percentage per drive (4th) and 35:45 average time of possession (3rd).
When it comes to scoring opportunities against Miami, offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey thinks they'll need to operate at a high level knowing the challenges that a Vic Fangio defense can create.
"I think they've obviously got a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball up front and secondary wise, really that whole unit," Dorsey said of Miami's defense. "So I think right now they're playing extremely sound football. They're forcing the offenses to have to execute at a high level based off of what they're doing. They're creating problems for the quarterback with some of their disguises and the different things they do there.
"So it's a tough group that just really forces you to have to be on top of things to execute in both the run and pass game because they're physical, they play fast and they play sound in terms of what they're doing."
Allen's impressive home track record vs. Miami
QB Josh Allen has a great record against the Dolphins with eight wins in his 10 regular season games played against Miami so far in his career.
When you look at that record on home turf, it gets even better. Allen is 5-0 against the Dolphins when the game is in Buffalo.
In those five games, Allen has totaled 17 touchdowns and posted a 112.7 passer rating.
His offense has averaged 37.4 points per game, and he has averaged 240 passing yards per game in those contests.
Bills Mafia deserves a lot of credit for how they showed up and showed out at the Commanders game.
So much so that Sean McDermott went out of his way to talk about it on Monday when meeting with the media.
"You guys need to celebrate the fans more," McDermott said with a big smile. "I mean that was incredible.
I think it was louder when we were on defense than it was when they were on defense."
The team knows they'll need the help of their fans to show up and be loud for Sunday's big game.
While the Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in their six most recent games and 5-0 ATS in their five most recent road games,
they are just 1-9 SU in their last 10 games against the Bills and 0-7 SU in their last seven games in Buffalo.
On the other side, the Bills are 13-2 SU in their last 15 home games and 10-2 SU in their last 12 games overall.
The total has gone over in 12 of the last 17 head-to-head matchups between these teams.
