Mia/Ind OVER 180

BigGamesOnly · Mar 28, 2004

Perhaps this line is this low because Indiana's 20 ppg scorer Jermaine O'Neal is out. However, Indy has been scoring over 100 points in the last 2 games without him and scored 101 points in a game where O'Neal only scored 4 points.

Miami, on the other hand, has been scoring well also averaging over 100 ppg in their last 6. Perhaps the linesmaker feels both teams have a good defense.

Neither team is on a long road swing.

Brazil4Worldcup2002 · Mar 28, 2004

seems about right, however my play of the day has to be the under in the Lakers game.

Good luck

OccamsRazor · Mar 28, 2004

Neither of these two have played any teams with defenses in the last 4 or 5 games. Both have played Orlando and Dallas the worse defenses in the league. Both of these defenses. Miami-Indy, are above average thus a total of 180 that is below the average of the league's 186.4 seems appropriate. O'Neals absence has been factored in.

BigGamesOnly · Mar 28, 2004

You make a valid point Occams regarding the teams not playing anyone with any defense lately.

Also, you mention that the books have factored-in O'Neal's absence. That reminds me of a topic in the Handicapping Forum that we've been discussing. That being, does the book factor in injuries? One should not automatically bet on a team with a recent injury because the book factored that in the line.

In your Friday picks, you mention regarding the Saturday Spurs game: "SanAntonio just clinched their playoff spot. Due for a letdown." Was this not factored in to the line?

Not meaning to be a smartass here. Just wondering your thoughts. I felt the Spurs would still do well at home that game and they walked away with the win. In other words, the books don't always factor in injuries or such and that's when we take advantage of them.

Good luck.

BigGamesOnly · Mar 28, 2004

a2345exxx:

That game concerns me because the Lakers are doing well lately. I'm staying away from that one.

Good luck.

OccamsRazor · Mar 28, 2004

BGO: Everything is factored into the line, There are millions of dollars at risk and you best believe the man has accounted for everything. Our job is to figure out if he has overcompensated or undercompensated on any particular variable and to see if we can capitalize on his over/undercompensation. For that we need to have our own power rating numbers make our own lines and bet into what we believe is value. The subjective variable of human nature is what will separate the winners from the losers on sides and finding the right numbers to average will separate winners from losers in Totals.

BigGamesOnly · Mar 28, 2004

OccamsRazor wrote:
"Neither of these two have played any teams with defenses in the last 4 or 5 games."

This reminds me of our conversation in your Friday thread where you mentioned that the Lakers' totals have fattened due to the poor defenses of recent opponents and my mention of Phoenix getting a fat line due to their recent poor opponents. I neglected to take into consideration who Miami and Indiana played recently. I'll have to be more careful to factor that in.

Of course the books take injuries, travel, etc. into consideration, but like you say, it is up to us to find those factors that the books may have not considered enough.

Good conversation with you OR.