MG Man's Divisional Plays 5-1 last 6!

[MGMan]

I came on strong in the first round and won five of six for a final stat of 6-4 +5.32 units. I hope to continue the streak in the division series. I passed last night but will take some action today. Here we go.

4* Phil over 9, first both teams are trending over and Pedro has a 5.66 era on the road and has gone over 3 of 4 rd starts. His era in the post season is also higher. The game itself is tough as the Philly's are 8-1 when Pedro starts and LA is 7-2 with Padilla. Philly is also 51-33 on the rd and LA is 52-32 at hm. I'm leaning Philly but won't make a play.

4* NYY under 4.5 -120 first 5innings - Sabathia has given up more then 2 runs in 9 innings just three times in his last twelve games and started this post season with a 1.35 era. The Yankees couldn't hit the mighty Twins pitching and LA's is better. Lackey has been tough in recent post season play and is also pitching well. This one may stay under the 8.5 as well.

I want to take the Angels but I'm struggling with the Yankees home record being so good and I think I'm just pissed because these bastards beat my Twins when the Twinkees led in every game they played this year. I'm going to lay off for now.

GL
MG Man

 

[MGMan]

I'm adding a 3* on NYY over 8.5 runs and hope I don't get middled with my under the first 4.5 innings. We need a lot of runs and luck in this Lad
game.

 

[MGMan]

1-2 so far and wasn't able to post yesterday. Two more today looking for a sweep.

4* under 4.5 runs first 5
4* Philly -173 with Lee

GL

MG Man

 

[MGMan]

Split yesterday now 2-3, -3.70 units for the Divisional round. I'm going to post the early game first and then the late game afterwards if I see something I like.

4* under 4.5 -115
4* NYY +115

Time to start rolliing again.

GL

MG Man

 

[bystander]

gl, on the opposite thought!

 

[mp5070]

Under for the GAME
Yankees +117

Lets Make This Happen

 

[MGMan]

Bystander, you're a new yorker and you aren't backing the bronx bommers with the veteran versus a Weaver? Come on man!

MP - shit a homer by Guerrero ties it at 3, so we need some good bullpen work for your game under to come through.

I need the Yanks to pull out another close one to get the sweep, it's nice to get the first win under the belt.

GL

 

[MGMan]

A big play in the night game as I've been capping for a while now. My gut tells me Philly and the over, but the stats don't support my gut. Both pitchers are better in the this environment, meaning Wolfe is better on the rd and Blanton is a better pitcher at home.

Wolfe has given up 3 runs twice in his last 11 starts going 5 + innings in 10 of those games. His rd era is 2.87. The Dodgers are 20-9 with him on the mound at night and his era is lower by .75 on the road and they have won 10 of his last 12 starts.

Take away Blanton's last start where he gave up 5 runs over six innings and he has given up 3 runs or more in 3 of his last 11 starts at home. His era is 3.82 at hm versus 4.35 on the rd and is more then a run better at night then day. Philly has gone under in 10 of 15 at home with Blanton on the mound.

Result...............5* under 4.5 runs.

I have to lean toward LAD and the under but I'm not going to play them.

GL

MG Man

What a game between the Yanks and Angels!

 

[MGMan]

Fucked by the two out homer, now I need the Dodgers for my lean.

 

[MGMan]

Tough day with the two out homer making us a loser in the Philly's game under and the Yankees bullpen, which has been so good, loses a lead and the manager pulls a guy who is picking the corners like a prostitute blowing her clients without gagging. I'm not sure what the analigy is?

Anyhow, I've looked at this thing and have a lot of stats but stats mean nothing, the game is played on the field. For instance, I think CC is past his post season jitters and pitching great. He hasn't faired well on 3 days rest.

Kazmir has also been a bust in the post season and looks to continue that trend this year posting a 7.50 era. However, he has pitched well against the Yankees with an inferior team while in TB and is 5-2 with the Angels. Kaz has gone under 8 of 10 and 6 of 7 since joining the Angels.

Meanwhile, CC has a 2.85 era at night and has won 13 of his last 14 starts and 15 of 17 while posting a 1.23 era in this years playoffs with 15 strike outs and 1, yes 1 walk. He has given up 2 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings but thrown 226 pitches in his two starts.

Wow, that is a lot to digest. I have my biggest play of the post season with a 7* under 4.5 runs 1h. I'm also taking the under 8.5 for 3* and LAA +113 for 3*'s.

NYY is just 9 games over .500 on the rd, LAA is 20 games over at hm. NYY is 1-7 last 8 rd playoff games and LAA is 7-1 at home last 8.

Whatever happens, I say Good Luck!

MGMan

 

[MGMan]

0-3 yesterday so my 2nd rn plays have sucked but yesterday my stat research pulled a Madcapper and I changed from the Yanks to LA. I did like the under in 4.5 innings but A Rod haunts me again. Tonight no capping just gut.4* Phil - 125

 

[NorthernStar]

and that is a big gut he is putting on the line tonight

 

[MGMan]

Easy winner last night and I look for more of the same tonight. 4* NYY even4* under 4.5 runsNorthern Star I'll have a beer on that comment.