The Brewers are no sure thing for the playoffs either. I see them and the Cards being 50/50 for the wildcard.
The Phillies are close, they just need another quality starter, another quality RP, and a decent bat for the end of the lineup. This team was one or two trades away from being a serious contender. They get Nady and Marte and that's a huge addition, even if they gave up some good kids. They get one out of Sabathia and Harden to go along that trade and they are one of the favorites. It really wasn't that far out of reach.