[h=1]Mel Kiper's 2016 NFL Mock Draft 3.0[/h]
ESPN INSIDER
Free agency doesn't change draft evaluations, only the occasional need. And I don't think it shifts needs dramatically, because it's the rare team that will tell you it was able to truly fix problems on the free-agency market. In the draft, you want core players you expect to be with the organization for years to come. You don't see these guys as fixes to immediate problems. Teams use rookies, but they don't want to have to depend on them. Free agents, on the other hand, simply aren't expected to be around for a long time.
With free agency the hot topic during the next week, here's an updated mock, and a note on how free agency could change the pick.
A player with an asterisk next to his name has a year of eligibility remaining. Two asterisks implies two years.
[h=2]1. Tennessee Titans[/h]*Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
The top left tackle in the draft goes to a team where offensive line help is a must. I'm certain the Titans will continue to shop this pick, but it could be difficult to get a good offer.
Free-agency effect: As usual, free agency isn't exactly flush with offensive tackle help. The Titans can shop elsewhere knowing they have a tackle option here. While it's not a free-agency move, the addition of DeMarco Murray is another reminder the O-line should be a priority.
[h=2]2. Cleveland Browns[/h]Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
I wouldn't rule out Cleveland taking a non-quarterback here and then getting one with the No. 32 pick, but Wentz would make sense here as a super physical talent whom new coach Hue Jackson can develop.
Free-agency effect: Is there a QB in free agency clearly better than a healthyJosh McCown, one they want to pay big dollars for? Right now, I doubt the Browns make a splash there.
[h=2]3. San Diego Chargers[/h]*Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
The offensive line has been a major problem area going on a few years, and Stanley can be plugged in immediately. The Chargers need D-line help as well, but the draft is much deeper at that position.
Free-agency effect: If the Chargers find O-line help in free agency, it could shift the thinking here if they have players graded similarly.
[h=2]4. Dallas Cowboys[/h]<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon
A good combination of clear need and a really good player available. Buckner brings versatility and the ability to disrupt the pocket.
Free-agency effect: There are some decent pass-rushers in free agency, but the Cowboys don't have the cap space to win bidding wars.
[h=2]5. Jacksonville Jaguars[/h]*Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida State
If there's a debate among evaluators on Ramsey, it's whether he'll end up at cornerback or safety. I think a little patience with him at cornerback will go a long way. He has star potential. Jacksonville should be thrilled if he's available here.
Free-agency effect: The Jags have the money to get multiple players in free agency, and should target the secondary. But when it comes to the draft, I think they should be taking the best player available, period.
[h=2]6. Baltimore Ravens[/h]*Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State
The Ravens need help in the secondary and on the O-line, but it's hard to pass on a talent as complete as Bosa at this spot. A great pass-rusher does as much for a secondary as a good corner.
Free-agency effect: With Kelechi Osemele headed elsewhere via free agency, the offensive line could be in play here, but the value is a question if Stanley is off the board.
[h=2]7. San Francisco 49ers[/h]*Jared Goff, QB, California
Even if Colin Kaepernick remains at quarterback, I don't know if Goff would be out of the equation here. I think he could develop into something special for coach Chip Kelly and would provide insurance for Kap.
Free-agency effect: While a rebuilding team needs to be thinking "best player available" here, the 49ers have a lot of money to spend -- and needs all over -- so I do think priorities could shift.
[h=2]8. Miami Dolphins[/h]*Myles Jack, LB, UCLA
A top-five player on my board, I think Jack could benefit any team in the league, thanks to his skill set at linebacker and special ability to cover from that position.
Free-agency effect: The Dolphins could be in the market for a pass-rusher ifOlivier Vernon is too expensive, and that could push a guy like Shaq Lawson up the board.
[h=2]9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/h]*Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida
No change here from the previous mock. Hargreaves is highly regarded throughout the league and certainly could be drafted before this point.
Free-agency effect: The Bucs could get secondary help in free agency, but Hargreaves at this point would be hard to pass up, too.
[h=2]10. New York Giants[/h]*Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson
Even if Jason Pierre-Paul were to return, the Giants would be wise to add pass-rushing talent, and Lawson is a good fit here. Like JPP, he's also underrated as a complete defensive end in that he's good against the run.
Free-agency effect: The Giants do have some shopping to do, and if they add pass-rush help, perhaps this pick becomes a cornerback such as Hargreaves, if available.
[h=2]11. Chicago Bears[/h]*Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia
The Bears did work on the interior of the defensive line in the 2015 draft, but they need pass-rushers, and Floyd is a big-time upside play.
Free-agency effect: The Bears could have a tough time winning the services of a top pass-rusher in free agency, given other areas where they need to spend money, which includes retaining talent. They want to build through the draft.
[h=2]12. New Orleans Saints[/h]Sheldon Rankins, DL, Louisville
A big man with the quickness to create havoc in the backfield working from the interior, Rankins is a guy you draft to get better on defense, period, and that's what the Saints need to do.
Free-agency effect: Given their cap squeeze, the Saints can't be too aggressive in free agency, and they need to add defenders in the draft.
[h=2]13. Philadelphia Eagles[/h]*Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State
If you just go on tape and forget pure potential, you would put Conklin much closer to the No. 1 and No. 3 picks in this mock draft. The Eagles can't go wrong in drafting even a couple of good offensive linemen.
Free-agency effect: Philadelphia won't solve O-line depth issues in free agency alone. The makeover is ongoing, but the Eagles need to add young O-line talent.
[h=2]14. Oakland Raiders[/h]**Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State
A high-upside cornerback with size, Apple might deal with some growing pains, but he's an impressive combination of size, athleticism and natural gifts for the position.
Free-agency effect: The Raiders can throw their money around this offseason, but they need major work in the secondary, so they'll need to draft help here regardless.
[h=2]15. Los Angeles Rams[/h]*Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
The Rams might actually find an upgrade at QB in free agency, but even if they don't add one, they also need somebody to catch the ball. It's not often you can get the top pass-catching prospect in the draft at No. 15.
Free-agency effect: The list of free-agent wide receivers isn't exactly stacked, with the top guy certain to stay put, so the Rams are going to get one at some point.
[h=2]16. Detroit Lions[/h]*A'Shawn Robinson, DL, Alabama
The Lions improved defensively during the second half of the season, but "best interior defensive lineman" would be a solid strategy here; Robinson matches up as a value just on overall ability at this point, even if you forget the need.
Free-agency effect: I don't think the Lions can fix the D-line needs in free agency alone, especially if they spend money on an offensive tackle.
[h=2]17. Atlanta Falcons[/h]**Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State
Nobody was better at the NFL combine, and Lee has plenty of good tape as well. An explosive, versatile player is a good value here, and Atlanta has a need for a playmaker at linebacker.
Free-agency effect: If the Falcons add a guy such as Danny Trevathan in free agency, Lee might not be the best pick for immediate help. If they don't add any pass-rush help, you could see them go that direction.
[h=2]18. Indianapolis Colts[/h]Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
I think "best offensive lineman available" would be a smart strategy here, and Decker would join former teammate Jack Mewhort. The Colts would obviously move him off left tackle, but he's a good athlete and could transition.
Free-agency effect: Indianapolis could go a few ways in free agency, but I'm not sure any of them would change the reality that young talent on the O-line is a priority.
[h=2]19. Buffalo Bills[/h]*Robert Nkemdiche, DL, Ole Miss
A special talent and incredible athlete at his size, Nkemdiche could play a big part in getting Rex (and Rob) Ryan's defense back to where it should be after an awful 2015. He's a character risk, but a top-five talent.
Free-agency effect: The Bills are freeing up some cap money, but they will have a tough time outbidding people for top talent. I wouldn't expect free agency to alter draft plans.
[h=2]20. New York Jets[/h]*Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
While I think Elliott could certainly qualify as "best player available" here, I'm not sure the Jets would take a running back this high. But that will be the question for every team, and Elliott sure would see the field for them.
Free-agency effect: Chris Ivory is likely to be gone, so even if it's not at this spot, I would expect the Jets to grab a running back at some point. I'll say this: If Ryan Fitzpatrick leaves, this is a dark-horse spot for a QB.
[h=2]21. Washington Redskins[/h]Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
Last year's draft was all about getting tougher and more physical on both sides of the ball. Ragland continues that trend, fills a need and is ready to play. Solid value here.
Free-agency effect: I think the defensive line will be a bigger priority than linebacker in free agency.
[h=2]22. Houston Texans[/h]*Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame
DeAndre Hopkins had 97 more targets than any other player on the Texans last season, and they need to find someone who can take some pressure off. Fuller is the No. 1 guy in this draft if you want to take the top off a defense.
Free-agency effect: Houston could add a wideout in free agency, but nobody available has quite the upside of Fuller. The real question is whether the Texans get a QB, and if that influences this pick.
[h=2]23. Minnesota Vikings[/h]Josh Doctson, WR, TCU
Stefon Diggs was a great value, and as they move indoors the Vikings need to add another weapon in the passing game. Doctson is great after the catch and would be a great fit in the offense.
Free-agency effect: The Vikings should spend money on the offensive line in free agency, but that could be a target here as well if they don't do enough.
[h=2]24. Cincinnati Bengals[/h]*Noah Spence, DE/OLB, Eastern Kentucky
Secondary is an emerging need for the Bengals, and I also think they'd grabKendall Fuller or Doctson here if they have high grades on either, but Spence is a potential stud in the pass rush and would be a good value here.
Free-agency effect: The depth of departures at wide receiver and in the secondary could shift the strategy for a "win now" team.
[h=2]25. Pittsburgh Steelers[/h]William Jackson III, CB, Houston
The Steelers are an improved secondary away from contending for a Super Bowl, and the addition of another young talent to go with (hopefully) a solid debut for Senquez Golson could help.
Free-agency effect: The Steelers won't have the flexibility to do much in free agency and will need to bolster the team through the draft.
[h=2]26. Seattle Seahawks[/h]*Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
Defensive line is going to be a need area, but Fuller becomes a value at this point, and the defensive-line class in this draft is going to produce starters well into Day 3. Get the best player.
Free-agency effect: If Jeremy Lane departs, this is a legit need area, so free agency will be something to watch.
[h=2]27. Green Bay Packers[/h]*Kamalei Correa, OLB, Boise State
The Packers need weapons in the passing game, but with the top three wide receivers gone and a middling tight end class, getting a pass-rusher is never a bad option. Correa is an absolute blur off the edge.
Free-agency effect: If you know anything about the Packers, you know free agency isn't an area where they do much business. I doubt it changes anything with their draft strategy, in all seriousness.
[h=2]28. Kansas City Chiefs[/h]Jarran Reed, DL, Alabama
The Chiefs need to add impact talent on the interior of the defensive line, and I'm not sure there's a player who is consistently better stopping the run than Reed. He would be a good get here.
Free-agency effect: The Chiefs could see some turnover on defense, and I think they could draft heavily on that side regardless of what happens in free agency.
[h=2]29. Arizona Cardinals[/h]*Emmanuel Ogbah, DE/OLB, Oklahoma State
The Cardinals need to add a pass-rusher -- look at how much they relied onDwight Freeney late in the season -- and to get the supremely athletic Ogbah at this point would be rare in most years, but they could benefit from the glut of D-line talent in this class.
Free-agency effect: Nothing Arizona will be able to do in free agency will change the fact that it needs good young talent on the defensive line.
[h=2]30. Carolina Panthers[/h]*Vonn Bell, S, Ohio State
The Panthers could look at either cornerback or safety here, but the way the board breaks in this instance, getting the top safety would be a sensible value at No. 30.
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</article>Free-agency effect: Carolina is out of cap jail, but it won't exactly be winning bidding wars. If the Panthers get secondary help, maybe that pushes them toward a pass-rusher here. But it all depends on who is available.
[h=2]31. Denver Broncos[/h]Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana
Spriggs is a great athlete who will need a little developmental work but is the kind of guy who could thrive under coach Gary Kubiak in this system.
Free-agency effect: Denver is going to be in a retention battle, and you could see that factoring in here, particularly if the Broncos lose Malik Jackson.
* There will be only 31 picks in the first round in 2016, with New England's first-round pick forfeited.
ESPN INSIDER
Free agency doesn't change draft evaluations, only the occasional need. And I don't think it shifts needs dramatically, because it's the rare team that will tell you it was able to truly fix problems on the free-agency market. In the draft, you want core players you expect to be with the organization for years to come. You don't see these guys as fixes to immediate problems. Teams use rookies, but they don't want to have to depend on them. Free agents, on the other hand, simply aren't expected to be around for a long time.
With free agency the hot topic during the next week, here's an updated mock, and a note on how free agency could change the pick.
A player with an asterisk next to his name has a year of eligibility remaining. Two asterisks implies two years.
The top left tackle in the draft goes to a team where offensive line help is a must. I'm certain the Titans will continue to shop this pick, but it could be difficult to get a good offer.
Free-agency effect: As usual, free agency isn't exactly flush with offensive tackle help. The Titans can shop elsewhere knowing they have a tackle option here. While it's not a free-agency move, the addition of DeMarco Murray is another reminder the O-line should be a priority.
I wouldn't rule out Cleveland taking a non-quarterback here and then getting one with the No. 32 pick, but Wentz would make sense here as a super physical talent whom new coach Hue Jackson can develop.
Free-agency effect: Is there a QB in free agency clearly better than a healthyJosh McCown, one they want to pay big dollars for? Right now, I doubt the Browns make a splash there.
The offensive line has been a major problem area going on a few years, and Stanley can be plugged in immediately. The Chargers need D-line help as well, but the draft is much deeper at that position.
Free-agency effect: If the Chargers find O-line help in free agency, it could shift the thinking here if they have players graded similarly.
DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon
A good combination of clear need and a really good player available. Buckner brings versatility and the ability to disrupt the pocket.
Free-agency effect: There are some decent pass-rushers in free agency, but the Cowboys don't have the cap space to win bidding wars.
If there's a debate among evaluators on Ramsey, it's whether he'll end up at cornerback or safety. I think a little patience with him at cornerback will go a long way. He has star potential. Jacksonville should be thrilled if he's available here.
Free-agency effect: The Jags have the money to get multiple players in free agency, and should target the secondary. But when it comes to the draft, I think they should be taking the best player available, period.
The Ravens need help in the secondary and on the O-line, but it's hard to pass on a talent as complete as Bosa at this spot. A great pass-rusher does as much for a secondary as a good corner.
Free-agency effect: With Kelechi Osemele headed elsewhere via free agency, the offensive line could be in play here, but the value is a question if Stanley is off the board.
Even if Colin Kaepernick remains at quarterback, I don't know if Goff would be out of the equation here. I think he could develop into something special for coach Chip Kelly and would provide insurance for Kap.
Free-agency effect: While a rebuilding team needs to be thinking "best player available" here, the 49ers have a lot of money to spend -- and needs all over -- so I do think priorities could shift.
A top-five player on my board, I think Jack could benefit any team in the league, thanks to his skill set at linebacker and special ability to cover from that position.
Free-agency effect: The Dolphins could be in the market for a pass-rusher ifOlivier Vernon is too expensive, and that could push a guy like Shaq Lawson up the board.
No change here from the previous mock. Hargreaves is highly regarded throughout the league and certainly could be drafted before this point.
Free-agency effect: The Bucs could get secondary help in free agency, but Hargreaves at this point would be hard to pass up, too.
Even if Jason Pierre-Paul were to return, the Giants would be wise to add pass-rushing talent, and Lawson is a good fit here. Like JPP, he's also underrated as a complete defensive end in that he's good against the run.
Free-agency effect: The Giants do have some shopping to do, and if they add pass-rush help, perhaps this pick becomes a cornerback such as Hargreaves, if available.
The Bears did work on the interior of the defensive line in the 2015 draft, but they need pass-rushers, and Floyd is a big-time upside play.
Free-agency effect: The Bears could have a tough time winning the services of a top pass-rusher in free agency, given other areas where they need to spend money, which includes retaining talent. They want to build through the draft.
A big man with the quickness to create havoc in the backfield working from the interior, Rankins is a guy you draft to get better on defense, period, and that's what the Saints need to do.
Free-agency effect: Given their cap squeeze, the Saints can't be too aggressive in free agency, and they need to add defenders in the draft.
If you just go on tape and forget pure potential, you would put Conklin much closer to the No. 1 and No. 3 picks in this mock draft. The Eagles can't go wrong in drafting even a couple of good offensive linemen.
Free-agency effect: Philadelphia won't solve O-line depth issues in free agency alone. The makeover is ongoing, but the Eagles need to add young O-line talent.
A high-upside cornerback with size, Apple might deal with some growing pains, but he's an impressive combination of size, athleticism and natural gifts for the position.
Free-agency effect: The Raiders can throw their money around this offseason, but they need major work in the secondary, so they'll need to draft help here regardless.
The Rams might actually find an upgrade at QB in free agency, but even if they don't add one, they also need somebody to catch the ball. It's not often you can get the top pass-catching prospect in the draft at No. 15.
Free-agency effect: The list of free-agent wide receivers isn't exactly stacked, with the top guy certain to stay put, so the Rams are going to get one at some point.
The Lions improved defensively during the second half of the season, but "best interior defensive lineman" would be a solid strategy here; Robinson matches up as a value just on overall ability at this point, even if you forget the need.
Free-agency effect: I don't think the Lions can fix the D-line needs in free agency alone, especially if they spend money on an offensive tackle.
Nobody was better at the NFL combine, and Lee has plenty of good tape as well. An explosive, versatile player is a good value here, and Atlanta has a need for a playmaker at linebacker.
Free-agency effect: If the Falcons add a guy such as Danny Trevathan in free agency, Lee might not be the best pick for immediate help. If they don't add any pass-rush help, you could see them go that direction.
I think "best offensive lineman available" would be a smart strategy here, and Decker would join former teammate Jack Mewhort. The Colts would obviously move him off left tackle, but he's a good athlete and could transition.
Free-agency effect: Indianapolis could go a few ways in free agency, but I'm not sure any of them would change the reality that young talent on the O-line is a priority.
A special talent and incredible athlete at his size, Nkemdiche could play a big part in getting Rex (and Rob) Ryan's defense back to where it should be after an awful 2015. He's a character risk, but a top-five talent.
Free-agency effect: The Bills are freeing up some cap money, but they will have a tough time outbidding people for top talent. I wouldn't expect free agency to alter draft plans.
While I think Elliott could certainly qualify as "best player available" here, I'm not sure the Jets would take a running back this high. But that will be the question for every team, and Elliott sure would see the field for them.
Free-agency effect: Chris Ivory is likely to be gone, so even if it's not at this spot, I would expect the Jets to grab a running back at some point. I'll say this: If Ryan Fitzpatrick leaves, this is a dark-horse spot for a QB.
Last year's draft was all about getting tougher and more physical on both sides of the ball. Ragland continues that trend, fills a need and is ready to play. Solid value here.
Free-agency effect: I think the defensive line will be a bigger priority than linebacker in free agency.
DeAndre Hopkins had 97 more targets than any other player on the Texans last season, and they need to find someone who can take some pressure off. Fuller is the No. 1 guy in this draft if you want to take the top off a defense.
Free-agency effect: Houston could add a wideout in free agency, but nobody available has quite the upside of Fuller. The real question is whether the Texans get a QB, and if that influences this pick.
Stefon Diggs was a great value, and as they move indoors the Vikings need to add another weapon in the passing game. Doctson is great after the catch and would be a great fit in the offense.
Free-agency effect: The Vikings should spend money on the offensive line in free agency, but that could be a target here as well if they don't do enough.
Secondary is an emerging need for the Bengals, and I also think they'd grabKendall Fuller or Doctson here if they have high grades on either, but Spence is a potential stud in the pass rush and would be a good value here.
Free-agency effect: The depth of departures at wide receiver and in the secondary could shift the strategy for a "win now" team.
The Steelers are an improved secondary away from contending for a Super Bowl, and the addition of another young talent to go with (hopefully) a solid debut for Senquez Golson could help.
Free-agency effect: The Steelers won't have the flexibility to do much in free agency and will need to bolster the team through the draft.
Defensive line is going to be a need area, but Fuller becomes a value at this point, and the defensive-line class in this draft is going to produce starters well into Day 3. Get the best player.
Free-agency effect: If Jeremy Lane departs, this is a legit need area, so free agency will be something to watch.
The Packers need weapons in the passing game, but with the top three wide receivers gone and a middling tight end class, getting a pass-rusher is never a bad option. Correa is an absolute blur off the edge.
Free-agency effect: If you know anything about the Packers, you know free agency isn't an area where they do much business. I doubt it changes anything with their draft strategy, in all seriousness.
The Chiefs need to add impact talent on the interior of the defensive line, and I'm not sure there's a player who is consistently better stopping the run than Reed. He would be a good get here.
Free-agency effect: The Chiefs could see some turnover on defense, and I think they could draft heavily on that side regardless of what happens in free agency.
The Cardinals need to add a pass-rusher -- look at how much they relied onDwight Freeney late in the season -- and to get the supremely athletic Ogbah at this point would be rare in most years, but they could benefit from the glut of D-line talent in this class.
Free-agency effect: Nothing Arizona will be able to do in free agency will change the fact that it needs good young talent on the defensive line.
The Panthers could look at either cornerback or safety here, but the way the board breaks in this instance, getting the top safety would be a sensible value at No. 30.
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</article>Free-agency effect: Carolina is out of cap jail, but it won't exactly be winning bidding wars. If the Panthers get secondary help, maybe that pushes them toward a pass-rusher here. But it all depends on who is available.
Spriggs is a great athlete who will need a little developmental work but is the kind of guy who could thrive under coach Gary Kubiak in this system.
Free-agency effect: Denver is going to be in a retention battle, and you could see that factoring in here, particularly if the Broncos lose Malik Jackson.
* There will be only 31 picks in the first round in 2016, with New England's first-round pick forfeited.
