McShay's 2017 NFL Mock Draft 1.0
Todd McShay
ESPN Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER
The mock draft below, our first to preview 2017, projects all 32 first-round picks. It goes without saying that a lot will change between now and April 27, including the draft order, team needs and the grades of many of our top prospects, as we continue our tape evaluations and dig deeper into intangibles and medical status. Some of the players included here are underclassmen who haven't yet decided whether they'll enter the 2017 draft, and some teams will inevitably undergo regime changes in the coming weeks.
But this mock draft can serve as an early primer on where the draft board stands right now, and the prospects whom teams could be considering with their picks in 2017.
Two important notes: 1. We used ESPN's Football Power Index to project what the order will be at the end of the season, with the three traded first-round picks accounted for. Read more about the FPI here. 2. All juniors or redshirt sophomores are noted with an asterisk.
1. Cleveland Browns
Jonathan Allen, DE, Alabama
Let's get this out of the way: No QB in this class is worth the No. 1 pick. The Browns just need more good football players. Allen is a total game-plan wrecker along the defense front (13 tackles for loss, 15 QB hurries). Texas A&M pass-rusher Myles Garrett also figures to be in the mix here.
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2. San Francisco 49ers
Myles Garrett, DE/OLB, Texas A&M*
Considering the lack of elite QB/WR talent in this class, the 49ers would be thrilled to see Garrett fall to them at No. 2. Tied with LSU RB Leonard Fournette for my best grade in this class, Garrett is the most disruptive pass-rusher in college football, with 21 sacks and 20 QB hurries in 23 games the past two seasons.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jamal Adams, S, LSU*
Assuming he leaves school early, Adams will be one of the most complete players in this draft. He can stuff the run as an in-the-box safety, he can cover and he's a great leader to bring into your locker room. The Jaguars need to continue to invest resources in their secondary.
4. Chicago Bears
Jabrill Peppers, S/OLB, Michigan*
The Bears are another team likely to be in the market for a QB this offseason without a good option at the top of the draft. Peppers would make sense, given Chicago's lack of difference-makers in the secondary. He's a true hybrid player, with the speed and athleticism to thrive in space and the toughness to play bigger than his 205-pound frame.
5. Tennessee Titans(from Rams)
Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State*
The Titans have the good fortune of not needing to even consider a quarterback with the pick they received in the Jared Goff trade. Lattimore could use some more game experience, but if he leaves Columbus early, CB-needy teams such as the Titans could be enticed by the natural talent he has displayed on the perimeter in his first year as a starter.
6. New York Jets
Tim Williams, OLB, Alabama
Williams is disruptive -- if a little inconsistent -- with excellent first-step quickness off the edge. Nearly all of his tackles for loss this season came against SEC opponents (14 of the 15.5 total). A pass-rusher could very well be near the top of the Jets' needs by the time April rolls around.
7. Carolina Panthers
Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU*
Fournette hasn't budged from the No. 1 spot in my prospect rankings all season. He is a rare talent for the position, the best college running back I've evaluated since Adrian Peterson in 2007. And though he has been hampered by an ankle injury all season, he has put up off-the-charts production when healthy. It would be great value for the Panthers if Fournette were to fall out of the top five.
8. New Orleans Saints
Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama*
At 6-foot-1, 196 pounds, Humphrey has ideal size for the cornerback position. He has 27 games of experience against high-level competition in his career, racking up five interceptions and 12 pass breakups. The Saints need to continue to add pieces to their defense, particularly in the secondary.
9. Cleveland Browns (from Eagles)
Takkarist McKinley, OLB, UCLA
Taking the versatile Jonathan Allen with the No. 1 overall pick would allow the Browns to target McKinley with the second of their first-round picks. The UCLA pass-rusher has elite speed off the edge, which has helped make him one of the biggest draft risers this season (18.0 tackles for loss and 10.0 sacks in 11 games). Florida State RB Dalvin Cook also could be in the conversation here for an offense that will be looking for more home run hitters.
10. San Diego Chargers
Mike Williams, WR, Clemson*
At 6-foot-3, Williams profiles as a legitimate No. 1 weapon at the next level. He shows an excellent ability to create late separation when the ball is in the air, scoring 10 touchdowns this season. Coming off a scary neck injury to open the 2015 campaign, Williams has done it all for the Tigers in his return to the field.
11. Arizona Cardinals
Reuben Foster, ILB, Alabama
A tackling machine who flies to the ball, Foster shows a good combination of agility and speed for a 240-pounder. He's one of the 10 best players in this class, but positional value could cause him to slip a little bit. QB is also a possibility for Arizona, given Carson Palmer's age (37) and declining play.
12. Cincinnati Bengals
Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee*
Barnett's production was outstanding in his first two seasons at Tennessee, but he has taken it to another level in 2016 with an SEC-leading 12.0 sacks. He has good size (6-3, 265) and agility and a consistent motor. The Bengals need more speed at defensive end and linebacker.
13. Indianapolis Colts
Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama*
Andrew Luck has been constantly under siege behind an offensive line that is still searching for answers. So whether it's in the first round or in free agency, the Colts need to devote resources to protect Luck and improve the running game. Robinson isn't an elite pass-blocker, but he's a plug-and-play right tackle who can develop at the next level.
14. Buffalo Bills
Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin
Ramczyk has just one year of full-time starting experience at the FBS level after transferring from UW-Stevens Points (Division III), but he's loaded with talent. With a long and sturdy frame (6-6, 314), he's very effective in pass protection and as a run-blocker. Cornerback and wide receiver also could be options for the Bills.
15. Baltimore Ravens
Charles Harris, DE, Missouri*
A twitchy athlete off the edge, Harris led the SEC with 18.5 tackles for loss in 2015 and finished this season with 5.5 sacks and six QB hurries in his final four games. He has tons of raw ability as a pass-rusher, and Baltimore needs to continue to add youth off the edge with Terrell Suggs turning 35 next season.
16. Miami Dolphins
O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama
Luckily for teams like the Dolphins who have a need at the position, this is a class loaded with tight ends at the top. Howard, Michigan's Jake Butt and Virginia Tech's Bucky Hodges all look like top-40 picks. Howard's size-speed combination gives him a lot of upside, but his production has been streaky in Alabama's run-heavy offense.
17. Tennessee Titans
John Ross, WR, Washington*
Ross has always had great speed, but he improved his route running this year and saw immediate dividends with a 17-touchdown season. If he runs as fast as expected at the NFL combine, he could very well be a first-rounder.
18. Philadelphia Eagles (from Vikings)
Teez Tabor, CB, Florida*
Tabor has terrific ball skills, with four interceptions, five pass breakups and a defensive TD in 11 games this season -- and that comes on the heels of a 2015 season in which he had four interceptions and 14 pass breakups. Tabor's natural anticipation skills would fill a big need for the Eagles.
19. Houston Texans
Carl Lawson, OLB, Auburn*
Not many pass-rushers in this class can match Lawson's combination of production, upside and intangibles. He's a film junkie who posted an astounding 24 QB hurries and nine sacks this season. Plus, he's an elite run defender. Lawson's medical reports will be critical; he endured back-to-back injury-plagued seasons in 2014 and 2015.
20. Green Bay Packers
Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State*
Yes, I know GM Ted Thompson has never drafted a running back this high, but there's no doubt the Packers need more explosive playmakers like Cook, who ranks tied for second among all Power 5 RBs this season with 15 touches of 25 yards or more. It would be good value to get a top-10 player at this stage of the first round.
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Malik McDowell, DT, Michigan State*
McDowell has supreme talent, and he can be a menace as an inside rusher when he's locked in. But McDowell could fall a bit, because he's not the consistent grinder that typically comes out of Michigan State. Tampa will be in the market for more pass-rushers.
22. Washington Redskins
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, USC*
Watching Smith-Schuster's tape, it's clear that he loves the game and works hard. He's not a burner by any stretch, but his good size (6-2, 220), ball skills and toughness will keep him in the first-round mix for teams with a need at the position, such as Washington, which could lose Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson to free agency.
23. Denver Broncos
Caleb Brantley, DT, Florida*
Brantley can be a load to handle in the running game, as he showed in back-to-back games this season against LSU and Florida State (five tackles for loss). His combination of quickness and functional strength would make him a good fit for the Broncos, who will be looking for help along the D-line this offseason.
24. Detroit Lions
Jarrad Davis, LB, Florida
Davis finds so many ways to affect a game. He makes plays in the backfield (six tackles for loss and five QB hurries) and is athletic enough to hold up in coverage. Davis' game is similar to that of Bucs OLB Kwon Alexander because of his excellent range and a relentless motor.
25. New York Giants
D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas*
Foreman is one of the most underrated prospects in this class. You can tell by looking at him that he's a load to bring down (6-1, 249), but what makes him special are his quick feet. Foreman, who led the FBS in rushing this season with 2,028 yards, also has some ability as a blocker and pass-catcher.
26. Pittsburgh Steelers
Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan
If you were watching the Michigan-Ohio State game, you might've noticed Charlton's game-wrecking ability (2.5 sacks). He was Michigan's best pass-rusher this season (nine sacks in 10 games). He has the versatility to convert to a 3-4 OLB in the Steelers' base defense. Jarvis Jones and James Harrison are both set to be free agents.
27. Atlanta Falcons
Quincy Wilson, CB, Florida*
I haven't done as much tape on Wilson as I have on his teammate Teez Tabor, but some scouts I've talked to think Wilson's ceiling is higher. At 6-foot-1, he has a good length/speed combination, and he's experienced, with 38 games played, including 23 starts. The Falcons need to find a way to bolster their secondary and defensive line.
28. Oakland Raiders
Jourdan Lewis, CB, Michigan
Lewis has some size limitations (5-11, 186), which makes him a bit of a reach here, but he's the best pure cover corner in college football. He had two interceptions and 10 pass breakups, despite opponents often shying away from throwing to his side of the field. The Raiders' secondary has been an issue this season as they continue to rebuild the defense.
29. Seattle Seahawks
Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame*
McGlinchey has held firm that he's likely to return to school, but for now he's eligible. While he'd benefit from one more year of physical development and technique work, an OT-needy team such as the Seahawks would give McGlinchey a long look because of his length and upside if he decided to leave early.
30. Kansas City Chiefs
Mitch Trubisky, QB, North Carolina*
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</article>Inside linebacker and safety will be bigger needs, but everyone knows how much Andy Reid likes to draft quarterbacks. Trubisky has some red flags as a prospect, including just 12 college starts to his name, but the opportunity to draft a quarterback to sit and develop behind Alex Smith could entice the Chiefs' front office. Trubisky has shown impressive accuracy (68.9 completion percentage) and an ability to limit mistakes (only four turnovers all season).
31. Dallas Cowboys
Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford
The Cowboys will be in the market for defensive line help this offseason; I'm just not sure who will be available this late in the first round. Thomas has good size (6-3, 273) and strength, he's stout against the run and he rushes the QB with quickness and power (13 tackles for loss, seven sacks and seven QB hurries).
32. New England Patriots
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford*
Bill Belichick and Tom Brady would have fun figuring out creative ways to utilize McCaffrey's versatile skill set. He's a true threat in both the running and passing games, finishing his college career with nearly 4,000 rushing yards and 1,206 receiving yards. He has a rare combination of vision, lateral agility and acceleration, which shows up in the return game too.
Todd McShay
ESPN Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER
The mock draft below, our first to preview 2017, projects all 32 first-round picks. It goes without saying that a lot will change between now and April 27, including the draft order, team needs and the grades of many of our top prospects, as we continue our tape evaluations and dig deeper into intangibles and medical status. Some of the players included here are underclassmen who haven't yet decided whether they'll enter the 2017 draft, and some teams will inevitably undergo regime changes in the coming weeks.
But this mock draft can serve as an early primer on where the draft board stands right now, and the prospects whom teams could be considering with their picks in 2017.
Two important notes: 1. We used ESPN's Football Power Index to project what the order will be at the end of the season, with the three traded first-round picks accounted for. Read more about the FPI here. 2. All juniors or redshirt sophomores are noted with an asterisk.
Jonathan Allen, DE, Alabama
Let's get this out of the way: No QB in this class is worth the No. 1 pick. The Browns just need more good football players. Allen is a total game-plan wrecker along the defense front (13 tackles for loss, 15 QB hurries). Texas A&M pass-rusher Myles Garrett also figures to be in the mix here.
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Myles Garrett, DE/OLB, Texas A&M*
Considering the lack of elite QB/WR talent in this class, the 49ers would be thrilled to see Garrett fall to them at No. 2. Tied with LSU RB Leonard Fournette for my best grade in this class, Garrett is the most disruptive pass-rusher in college football, with 21 sacks and 20 QB hurries in 23 games the past two seasons.
Jamal Adams, S, LSU*
Assuming he leaves school early, Adams will be one of the most complete players in this draft. He can stuff the run as an in-the-box safety, he can cover and he's a great leader to bring into your locker room. The Jaguars need to continue to invest resources in their secondary.
Jabrill Peppers, S/OLB, Michigan*
The Bears are another team likely to be in the market for a QB this offseason without a good option at the top of the draft. Peppers would make sense, given Chicago's lack of difference-makers in the secondary. He's a true hybrid player, with the speed and athleticism to thrive in space and the toughness to play bigger than his 205-pound frame.
5. Tennessee Titans(from Rams)
Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State*
The Titans have the good fortune of not needing to even consider a quarterback with the pick they received in the Jared Goff trade. Lattimore could use some more game experience, but if he leaves Columbus early, CB-needy teams such as the Titans could be enticed by the natural talent he has displayed on the perimeter in his first year as a starter.
6. New York Jets
Tim Williams, OLB, Alabama
Williams is disruptive -- if a little inconsistent -- with excellent first-step quickness off the edge. Nearly all of his tackles for loss this season came against SEC opponents (14 of the 15.5 total). A pass-rusher could very well be near the top of the Jets' needs by the time April rolls around.
7. Carolina Panthers
Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU*
Fournette hasn't budged from the No. 1 spot in my prospect rankings all season. He is a rare talent for the position, the best college running back I've evaluated since Adrian Peterson in 2007. And though he has been hampered by an ankle injury all season, he has put up off-the-charts production when healthy. It would be great value for the Panthers if Fournette were to fall out of the top five.
8. New Orleans Saints
Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama*
At 6-foot-1, 196 pounds, Humphrey has ideal size for the cornerback position. He has 27 games of experience against high-level competition in his career, racking up five interceptions and 12 pass breakups. The Saints need to continue to add pieces to their defense, particularly in the secondary.
9. Cleveland Browns (from Eagles)
Takkarist McKinley, OLB, UCLA
Taking the versatile Jonathan Allen with the No. 1 overall pick would allow the Browns to target McKinley with the second of their first-round picks. The UCLA pass-rusher has elite speed off the edge, which has helped make him one of the biggest draft risers this season (18.0 tackles for loss and 10.0 sacks in 11 games). Florida State RB Dalvin Cook also could be in the conversation here for an offense that will be looking for more home run hitters.
10. San Diego Chargers
Mike Williams, WR, Clemson*
At 6-foot-3, Williams profiles as a legitimate No. 1 weapon at the next level. He shows an excellent ability to create late separation when the ball is in the air, scoring 10 touchdowns this season. Coming off a scary neck injury to open the 2015 campaign, Williams has done it all for the Tigers in his return to the field.
11. Arizona Cardinals
Reuben Foster, ILB, Alabama
A tackling machine who flies to the ball, Foster shows a good combination of agility and speed for a 240-pounder. He's one of the 10 best players in this class, but positional value could cause him to slip a little bit. QB is also a possibility for Arizona, given Carson Palmer's age (37) and declining play.
12. Cincinnati Bengals
Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee*
Barnett's production was outstanding in his first two seasons at Tennessee, but he has taken it to another level in 2016 with an SEC-leading 12.0 sacks. He has good size (6-3, 265) and agility and a consistent motor. The Bengals need more speed at defensive end and linebacker.
13. Indianapolis Colts
Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama*
Andrew Luck has been constantly under siege behind an offensive line that is still searching for answers. So whether it's in the first round or in free agency, the Colts need to devote resources to protect Luck and improve the running game. Robinson isn't an elite pass-blocker, but he's a plug-and-play right tackle who can develop at the next level.
14. Buffalo Bills
Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin
Ramczyk has just one year of full-time starting experience at the FBS level after transferring from UW-Stevens Points (Division III), but he's loaded with talent. With a long and sturdy frame (6-6, 314), he's very effective in pass protection and as a run-blocker. Cornerback and wide receiver also could be options for the Bills.
15. Baltimore Ravens
Charles Harris, DE, Missouri*
A twitchy athlete off the edge, Harris led the SEC with 18.5 tackles for loss in 2015 and finished this season with 5.5 sacks and six QB hurries in his final four games. He has tons of raw ability as a pass-rusher, and Baltimore needs to continue to add youth off the edge with Terrell Suggs turning 35 next season.
16. Miami Dolphins
O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama
Luckily for teams like the Dolphins who have a need at the position, this is a class loaded with tight ends at the top. Howard, Michigan's Jake Butt and Virginia Tech's Bucky Hodges all look like top-40 picks. Howard's size-speed combination gives him a lot of upside, but his production has been streaky in Alabama's run-heavy offense.
17. Tennessee Titans
John Ross, WR, Washington*
Ross has always had great speed, but he improved his route running this year and saw immediate dividends with a 17-touchdown season. If he runs as fast as expected at the NFL combine, he could very well be a first-rounder.
18. Philadelphia Eagles (from Vikings)
Teez Tabor, CB, Florida*
Tabor has terrific ball skills, with four interceptions, five pass breakups and a defensive TD in 11 games this season -- and that comes on the heels of a 2015 season in which he had four interceptions and 14 pass breakups. Tabor's natural anticipation skills would fill a big need for the Eagles.
19. Houston Texans
Carl Lawson, OLB, Auburn*
Not many pass-rushers in this class can match Lawson's combination of production, upside and intangibles. He's a film junkie who posted an astounding 24 QB hurries and nine sacks this season. Plus, he's an elite run defender. Lawson's medical reports will be critical; he endured back-to-back injury-plagued seasons in 2014 and 2015.
20. Green Bay Packers
Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State*
Yes, I know GM Ted Thompson has never drafted a running back this high, but there's no doubt the Packers need more explosive playmakers like Cook, who ranks tied for second among all Power 5 RBs this season with 15 touches of 25 yards or more. It would be good value to get a top-10 player at this stage of the first round.
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Malik McDowell, DT, Michigan State*
McDowell has supreme talent, and he can be a menace as an inside rusher when he's locked in. But McDowell could fall a bit, because he's not the consistent grinder that typically comes out of Michigan State. Tampa will be in the market for more pass-rushers.
22. Washington Redskins
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, USC*
Watching Smith-Schuster's tape, it's clear that he loves the game and works hard. He's not a burner by any stretch, but his good size (6-2, 220), ball skills and toughness will keep him in the first-round mix for teams with a need at the position, such as Washington, which could lose Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson to free agency.
23. Denver Broncos
Caleb Brantley, DT, Florida*
Brantley can be a load to handle in the running game, as he showed in back-to-back games this season against LSU and Florida State (five tackles for loss). His combination of quickness and functional strength would make him a good fit for the Broncos, who will be looking for help along the D-line this offseason.
24. Detroit Lions
Jarrad Davis, LB, Florida
Davis finds so many ways to affect a game. He makes plays in the backfield (six tackles for loss and five QB hurries) and is athletic enough to hold up in coverage. Davis' game is similar to that of Bucs OLB Kwon Alexander because of his excellent range and a relentless motor.
25. New York Giants
D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas*
Foreman is one of the most underrated prospects in this class. You can tell by looking at him that he's a load to bring down (6-1, 249), but what makes him special are his quick feet. Foreman, who led the FBS in rushing this season with 2,028 yards, also has some ability as a blocker and pass-catcher.
26. Pittsburgh Steelers
Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan
If you were watching the Michigan-Ohio State game, you might've noticed Charlton's game-wrecking ability (2.5 sacks). He was Michigan's best pass-rusher this season (nine sacks in 10 games). He has the versatility to convert to a 3-4 OLB in the Steelers' base defense. Jarvis Jones and James Harrison are both set to be free agents.
27. Atlanta Falcons
Quincy Wilson, CB, Florida*
I haven't done as much tape on Wilson as I have on his teammate Teez Tabor, but some scouts I've talked to think Wilson's ceiling is higher. At 6-foot-1, he has a good length/speed combination, and he's experienced, with 38 games played, including 23 starts. The Falcons need to find a way to bolster their secondary and defensive line.
28. Oakland Raiders
Jourdan Lewis, CB, Michigan
Lewis has some size limitations (5-11, 186), which makes him a bit of a reach here, but he's the best pure cover corner in college football. He had two interceptions and 10 pass breakups, despite opponents often shying away from throwing to his side of the field. The Raiders' secondary has been an issue this season as they continue to rebuild the defense.
29. Seattle Seahawks
Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame*
McGlinchey has held firm that he's likely to return to school, but for now he's eligible. While he'd benefit from one more year of physical development and technique work, an OT-needy team such as the Seahawks would give McGlinchey a long look because of his length and upside if he decided to leave early.
Mitch Trubisky, QB, North Carolina*
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</article>Inside linebacker and safety will be bigger needs, but everyone knows how much Andy Reid likes to draft quarterbacks. Trubisky has some red flags as a prospect, including just 12 college starts to his name, but the opportunity to draft a quarterback to sit and develop behind Alex Smith could entice the Chiefs' front office. Trubisky has shown impressive accuracy (68.9 completion percentage) and an ability to limit mistakes (only four turnovers all season).
Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford
The Cowboys will be in the market for defensive line help this offseason; I'm just not sure who will be available this late in the first round. Thomas has good size (6-3, 273) and strength, he's stout against the run and he rushes the QB with quickness and power (13 tackles for loss, seven sacks and seven QB hurries).
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford*
Bill Belichick and Tom Brady would have fun figuring out creative ways to utilize McCaffrey's versatile skill set. He's a true threat in both the running and passing games, finishing his college career with nearly 4,000 rushing yards and 1,206 receiving yards. He has a rare combination of vision, lateral agility and acceleration, which shows up in the return game too.
