Actually this is not a good point. At fivethirtyeight.com nate Silver runs thousands of simulations and he has Obama winning 98.1 percent of the time.
So at +1000 you are basically taking your money tossing it in the fire place and watching it burn.
Your forgeting about MR Diebold.
I'm a big fan of Nate's work, both politics and baseball. There are essentially two factors that he can't account for (and would => a McCain win), and those are Election fraud and universal mispolling (most likely in weightings).
I don't think either is particuarly likely. However, in far more than 2.x% of scenarios McCain wins enough to keep it close enough that you'll get a better price on Obama at some point tomorrow.
I have a fair amount of ~ +1430 McCain on Betfair which I'll be trading with tomorrow, plus various handicaps and spread bets on the Electoral College.
I don't think either is particuarly likely. However, in far more than 2.x% of scenarios McCain wins enough to keep it close enough that you'll get a better price on Obama at some point tomorrow.
I have a fair amount of ~ +1430 McCain on Betfair which I'll be trading with tomorrow, plus various handicaps and spread bets on the Electoral College.
Between registering the homeless to vote and the media promoting Obama for the last few months, no wonder its a lock.
Its a shame that we have NO real idea what Barack Obama is going to do as president on so many issues. He is the world champion fence sitter and the media just whistles and smiles while he make ridiculous comments like -He doesn't support gay marriage and thinks marriage should be between a man and a woman, but he isn't in favor of repealing the law in California that legalizes it-
BE A MAN and tell the country your beliefs and how you plan to govern.
Brian
Its a shame that we have NO real idea what Barack Obama is going to do as president on so many issues. He is the world champion fence sitter and the media just whistles and smiles while he make ridiculous comments like -He doesn't support gay marriage and thinks marriage should be between a man and a woman, but he isn't in favor of repealing the law in California that legalizes it-
BE A MAN and tell the country your beliefs and how you plan to govern.
Brian
Don't get caught up in the exit polls tomorrow. They were the reason that Bush jumped from a favorite to a 300+ dog on that day 4 years ago. Wait, I take that back if the exit polls drive Obama down significantly or McCain up a lot before any results are announced maybe then it would be worth it to take a shot that the exit polls are wrong again.
