i wait all year for this event- huge pools, top class horses and millions of dollars of stupid money in play. here's my look at the first four of the BC races.
Distaff: SIGHTSEEK looks like a total standout to me. it's unfortunate that azeri and her pinhead owner, michael paulson, aren't around to get beaten up as i would've booked every single dollar on her in the win pool. seems like de seroux is doing the smart thing by stopping on her. meanwhile, azeri's defection makes sightseek the prohibitive favorite; at 4/5 or so, she may not meet anybody definition of value, so i'm looking to pair her up with ELLOLUV. 'Luv ran her heart out in the lady's secret last month and while this diminutive filly looks about half the size of rival Got Koko, she's all heart and i expect her to be right on a moderate pace. sightseek, meanwhile, has annihilated her competition back east and i give her a big advantage over these.
BC JUVENILLE FILLIES: what an outstanding race. This year the fillies look much the best over the boys in the juvenile. I think halfbridled is very very vulnerable. Not just because of the poor post position, but I watched her work on TVG the other day and she looks over the top. Unfortunately, there are five or six other contenders who figure in here, so even throwing out the favorite doesn’t get us very far. DIXIE HIGH is a very interesting longshot from the rail with espinoza. These lightly raced fillies are all developing by the minute, so the fact that some of them haven’t won routing and/or in graded stakes doesn’t bother me. ‘high has good speed, gets the beneficial rail draw, and will be an astronomical price. My pick, however, is CLASS ABOVE, who looked like a freakshow in both her races. While the times haven’t been great, she’s been winning with consummate ease and she has the great cruising speed which should put her in perfect position sitting right off a very fast pace. The other to include in the exotics is sentimental choice, SOCIETY SELECTION. Jerkens has kept the mount with a most extremely unproven jockey, Ran Ganpath. ‘selection has done nothing wrong and her breeding screams the longer the better.
MILE: another grab bag. The U.S. milers have taken turns beating each other this year, and I just can’t imagine that the Touch of the Blues or Perfect Soul or Designed For Luck can win a BC race- don’t get me wrong, US milers can compete like lure, silic and val royal. I know val royal, val royal is a friend of mine, and none of those horses is a val royal. I’m siding with OASIS DREAM, who looks like the goods for john gosden. While this one has never been a mile, the juddmonte color-bearer has looked great sprinting and his pedigree says a mile will not be a problem. The firm turf course should also work in his favor here. Juddmonte sold decarchy prior to this race so I’m thinking the sheiks are pretty confident of their chances in here. The one to fear is the enigmatic SPECIAL RING, who has been training well since his very poor effort in the oak tree bc mile. He’s been a real in and outer his entire life and is just not reliable enough to make a key horse, particularly in a tough race like this. So, what to do with PEACE RULES? He’s everybody’s wiseguy horse (see the prescription’s very own thread re: BC Best Bet). He’s obviously classy enough and has good early lick, so as not to lose position early. Is he ready off a two month layoff? I give the benefit of the doubt to frankel, and he’s a must-use in the exotics.
SPRINT : as usual, the sprint is a total scramble. I’ve consistently thought the west coast sprinters were not top class this year as they’ve taken turns beating up on each other. ALDABARAN figures to go off chalk, but he’s such a deep closer he’s going to be tough to back at 8/5. he’ll have to avoid traffic and pick off each and every horse to win. If he does that, tip your hat and move on. I like the looks of CAJUN BEAT. ‘Beat is coming into this race in top form and he owns enough tactical speed to be able to get first run on the closers. With shake you down, captain squire, valid vide, midas eyes, ethan man and others all vying for the early lead, the horses in the second flight will have a big advantage. While aldabaran is weaving in and out avoiding the tiring speed, ‘beat should get first run. And at a big price, he’s worth the gamble. I also like VALID VIDEO, who ran nearly as fast as likely second choice shake you down in the carry back at calder. The jockey switch to prado will help and he figures to also get a good trip off the early lick.
The other races to follow in a separate thread.
Distaff: SIGHTSEEK looks like a total standout to me. it's unfortunate that azeri and her pinhead owner, michael paulson, aren't around to get beaten up as i would've booked every single dollar on her in the win pool. seems like de seroux is doing the smart thing by stopping on her. meanwhile, azeri's defection makes sightseek the prohibitive favorite; at 4/5 or so, she may not meet anybody definition of value, so i'm looking to pair her up with ELLOLUV. 'Luv ran her heart out in the lady's secret last month and while this diminutive filly looks about half the size of rival Got Koko, she's all heart and i expect her to be right on a moderate pace. sightseek, meanwhile, has annihilated her competition back east and i give her a big advantage over these.
BC JUVENILLE FILLIES: what an outstanding race. This year the fillies look much the best over the boys in the juvenile. I think halfbridled is very very vulnerable. Not just because of the poor post position, but I watched her work on TVG the other day and she looks over the top. Unfortunately, there are five or six other contenders who figure in here, so even throwing out the favorite doesn’t get us very far. DIXIE HIGH is a very interesting longshot from the rail with espinoza. These lightly raced fillies are all developing by the minute, so the fact that some of them haven’t won routing and/or in graded stakes doesn’t bother me. ‘high has good speed, gets the beneficial rail draw, and will be an astronomical price. My pick, however, is CLASS ABOVE, who looked like a freakshow in both her races. While the times haven’t been great, she’s been winning with consummate ease and she has the great cruising speed which should put her in perfect position sitting right off a very fast pace. The other to include in the exotics is sentimental choice, SOCIETY SELECTION. Jerkens has kept the mount with a most extremely unproven jockey, Ran Ganpath. ‘selection has done nothing wrong and her breeding screams the longer the better.
MILE: another grab bag. The U.S. milers have taken turns beating each other this year, and I just can’t imagine that the Touch of the Blues or Perfect Soul or Designed For Luck can win a BC race- don’t get me wrong, US milers can compete like lure, silic and val royal. I know val royal, val royal is a friend of mine, and none of those horses is a val royal. I’m siding with OASIS DREAM, who looks like the goods for john gosden. While this one has never been a mile, the juddmonte color-bearer has looked great sprinting and his pedigree says a mile will not be a problem. The firm turf course should also work in his favor here. Juddmonte sold decarchy prior to this race so I’m thinking the sheiks are pretty confident of their chances in here. The one to fear is the enigmatic SPECIAL RING, who has been training well since his very poor effort in the oak tree bc mile. He’s been a real in and outer his entire life and is just not reliable enough to make a key horse, particularly in a tough race like this. So, what to do with PEACE RULES? He’s everybody’s wiseguy horse (see the prescription’s very own thread re: BC Best Bet). He’s obviously classy enough and has good early lick, so as not to lose position early. Is he ready off a two month layoff? I give the benefit of the doubt to frankel, and he’s a must-use in the exotics.
SPRINT : as usual, the sprint is a total scramble. I’ve consistently thought the west coast sprinters were not top class this year as they’ve taken turns beating up on each other. ALDABARAN figures to go off chalk, but he’s such a deep closer he’s going to be tough to back at 8/5. he’ll have to avoid traffic and pick off each and every horse to win. If he does that, tip your hat and move on. I like the looks of CAJUN BEAT. ‘Beat is coming into this race in top form and he owns enough tactical speed to be able to get first run on the closers. With shake you down, captain squire, valid vide, midas eyes, ethan man and others all vying for the early lead, the horses in the second flight will have a big advantage. While aldabaran is weaving in and out avoiding the tiring speed, ‘beat should get first run. And at a big price, he’s worth the gamble. I also like VALID VIDEO, who ran nearly as fast as likely second choice shake you down in the carry back at calder. The jockey switch to prado will help and he figures to also get a good trip off the early lick.
The other races to follow in a separate thread.
