MAVS - SPURS SERIES WAGERS - GAME 1 WINNER WINS 89.5% OF ALL CONFERENCE FINALS

[ajdickey]

Anyone looking for a solid percentage winner should consider this -- in the Conference Finals, the winner of Game 1 has gone on to win 89.5% of the series.


http://icq.nba.com/playoffs2003/game_1_winners.html

 

[ajdickey]

Here's the breakdown of ROAD teams that won Game 1 of the Conference Finals:

2002 - Western Conference Finals, LAL wins Game 1, wins series.
2001 - Western Conference Finals, LAL wins Game 1, wins series.
1999 - Eastern Conference Finals, NYK wins Game 1, wins series.
1995 - Western Conference Finals, HOU wins Game 1, wins series.
1991 - Western Conference Finals, LAL wins Game 1, wins series.
1989 - Eastern Conference Finals, CHI wins Game 1, loses series.
1988 - Eastern Conference Finals, DET wins Game 1, wins series.

In the same time period, from 1984-present, in the Conference Finals, if the ROAD TEAM wins Game 1, it goes on to win the series 85.7% of the time.

 

[SPIVE]

While today's best play is San Antonio -158 to win series verse Dallas.

 

[ajdickey]

The Kings backers kept telling themselves the same thing up until the Kings lost.

 

[assassin]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by SPIVE:
While today's best play is San Antonio -158 to win series verse Dallas.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I've only seen it listed at Oly, -175
where'd you find -158? If I may ask

 

[SPIVE]

Date Accepted: 20-May-2003
Time Accepted: 0:43:28 AM (Pacific)
Description: NBA Series Prices
Conferenece Final (Best of Seven)
Dallas Mavs vs San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs -158


Now it is...

Dallas +166
San Antonio -182

Well, I did mention it was the BEST play of the day...meaning it held VALUE.

 

[assassin]

TYhanks Spive. Does me no good now, but good luck to you. I like SA but don't know if I'll bet it based on their horrendous free throw shooting.

 

[ajdickey]

You're right. It does hold value. If you want to wager on the MAVS. You can wager $100 to win $165 on what has been, historically, an 85% winning percentage.

But even if those statistics don't provide you with some enlightenment, consider this -- the only true method to judge a team is on their margin of winning. And this year, the Mavs won by an average of 7.8 points per game. The Spurs won by an average of 5.4 points per game. The Mavs are the better team.

 

[HacheMan]

Lets see........Mavs have stolen home court away and are up 1-0, yet are still +166......Id have to agree the value is obviously on the Mavs taking the series at the +166. Spurs may yet win the series, of course, but value is easily on Dallas right now.

 

[steeser]

Have to agree, that is a ridiculous price on the Mavs. If they steal game 2, what will they be, +120????? Kidding for anyone who is gonna respond to that comment.

 

[HacheMan]

Quote by steeser<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>If they steal game 2, what will they be, +120????? Kidding for anyone who is gonna respond to that comment.


So stees, are you guaranteeing the Spurs win game 2?!......

.....joking......I know what ya meant.

 

[SPIVE]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Lets see........Mavs have stolen home court away and are up 1-0, yet are still +166......Id have to agree the value is obviously on the Mavs taking the series at the +166. Spurs may yet win the series, of course, but value is easily on Dallas right now. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Yeah, lets see...

Current SERIES numbers:

Dallas +168
San Antonio -184

NEXT GAME numbers:

Dallas +332
San Antonio -362

So, there appears to be VALUE on DALLAS series number, when the probability of the DALLAS Series number to go higher, based upon game 2 odds, is +332?

Help me out here, but where's the VALUE on the Dallas Series wager?

The VALUE was/is on the SA series number of -158...

This is seen by the probability that this number will get worst, based upon game 2 odds of SA -362...as well as seen by the recent movement from -158 to -184.

VALUE has already been captured on the SA series -158 position, as the opposing Dallas position is now +168.


Math 101...Buy at $1.58 SELL at $1.68 = PROFIT of $0.10.

Value realized is PROFIT.

So if you think Dallas Series price now has VALUE, you probably bought it from me.

Call me CRAZY B?

[This message was edited by SPIVE on May 20, 2003 at 08:56 PM.]

 

[olddog]

I agree with Spive. The value on this series presently lies in taking SA. There is a STRONG possibility that SA will win at home tonite as Dallas has accomplished their goal of winning one of two on the other team's court.

If you truly think Dallas will win the series, I'd 'gamble' that they'll lose tonite and wait until after the game to bet on them to win the series when you can get a much better price.

 

[RPM]

LONG TIME NO SEE O.D.!~

 

[SPIVE]

Spur's -158 SERIES (BEST VALUE) play bought yesterday at $1.58 SOLD TODAY for $2.25.

In, out, get (it) on with your (w)ife.

$imple Game.

 

[SPIVE]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> In the same time period, from 1984-present, in the Conference Finals, if the ROAD TEAM wins Game 1, it goes on to win the series 85.7% of the time. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


This may soon need some calibration.

 

[Halifax]

I think they calibrated that at the same time they were calibrating the size of Dirk Nowitzki's leg cast.

 

[SPIVE]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> I think they calibrated that at the same time they were calibrating the size of Dirk Nowitzki's leg cast. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

LMAO