Matt Rain's Boxing Thread

[MattRain]

Friday Nov. 10

Holyfield - Oquendo UNDER 9.5 rounds +221

Saying that Holyfield is past his prime is quite the understatement. Oquendo is not a good fighter by any stretch, but he's a big guy who will give hell to a 44-year-old Real Deal. Ref feels sorry for Holy and stops the fight around the 6th.

Risking .5 unit to win 1.1 unit

 

[3DGlasses]

Another obvious pick for Saturday Nov. 11:

Klitschko inside distance -160

Risking 8 units to win 5

Excellent value here. Should be -250 or so - bettors wary of Klitschko's past stamina and chin problems. Fact is, the post-Brewster Klitschko has learned to pace himself and work his jab from the outside to soften his opponent before going in for the kill. Brock doesn't have Peter-level power, so no worries there.

Klitschko (T)KO Brock inside 8

Brock doesn't have Peter's power, but he can still punch. His punches are much more accurate than Peter's and he's got way beter skills. The only problem with Brock is that he's too slow, or melow. BUT -- he does fight back hard when he gets hit or is hurt. Remeber when McCline knocked him down and he got back up and went after McCline like a mad bull. I think Wlad should win this fight, but when Wlad hurts Brock, will Brock attack Wlad like he did mcCline, and if he does will Wlad be able to take it with his small heart and suspect stamina? Samuel Peter only landed 3 good shots when he fought Wlad, and those 3 times Wlad went down. Putting money on Wlad Klitschko is always risky... Wladimir has all the advantages in this fight, but Brock only has to land one good shot and he's got a chance of pulling off the upset because Klitschko isn't mentally tough.

 

[MattRain]

I hear ya, sir.

I downloaded McCline-Brock a few days ago - I had seen the live broadcast but didn't remember much apart from the fact that McCline fought like a scared little girl, as usual.

Brock is indeed more skilled than Peter... good head movement and nice defensive instincts, good power for his size, etc. but he's just about as slow as Peter is... check out those lead right hands, man... Klitschko will have enough time to throw his 10-ton jab twice before Brock's right misses.

I don't think that K will be into much trouble tomorrow night - Brock just doesn't have the tools to exploit his weaknesses. He might be momentarily wobbled by a lucky punch, but for the most part, I'm expecting Wlad to stay outside, throw the jab until Brock's eyes begin to close, then he'll come inside and jackhammer his way to an easy TKO victory.

 

[MattRain]

Last minute bet on Oquendo -159 at Pinny. Heavy money coming in on Holyfield, apparently.

1.59 unit to win 1

 

[MattRain]

Holyfield UD

Lesson learned tonight: never bet on a crap fighter, even when you think that the other guy is crappier.

4-6, +0.90 unit

:realtongu

 

[MattRain]

I'm expecting Wlad to stay outside, throw the jab until Brock's eyes begin to close, then he'll come inside and jackhammer his way to an easy TKO victory.

Love it when fights go *exactly* as planned! Klitschko KO7:thumbsup2:

5-6 +5.90 units

 

[MattRain]

Sat. Nov. 18

Morales by decision +450

Risking 0.9 unit to win 4.05

Stupid, stupid price for what is a very close 2nd on the list of most likely outcomes (first being a Pacquiao win by decision)

Word is that Morales is following a new regimen which allows him to make weight comfortably, so he should get in the ring with much better stamina and strength. This is going to be a tough, close fight that could go either way. Hard not to like these odds on Morales!

I might add a play later today after seeing the weigh-in.

 

[MattRain]

Adding:

Parlay
Pacquiao/Morales OVER 10.5 rounds -190
Ruiz/Chagaev OVER 10.5 rounds -155

Risking 1 unit to win 1.51

 

[tgbn]

I have too the over for morales pac;but i prefer to play straight on chagaev to beat ruiz;chagaev's style seems to be all wrong for ruiz,who is already very battleworn

 

[MattRain]

To be honest, I've only seen highlights from a couple of Chagaev fights. Dude can punch, but Ruiz is Ruiz and I think he will once again stink up the joint and clinch his way to a boring decision (win or loss, don't know/don't care).

I don't think Ruiz is shopworn much, and he's got a pretty strong chin.

Either way, best of luck to you sir.

 

[tgbn]

on another note ,morales and pac could well end up in a draw,even a controversial decision for eric if he doesn't visit the canvas.
filipinos have put a load of bread on him;you get the picture....

 

[MattRain]

Ruiz loses a split decision.

 

[MattRain]

And Morales gets knocked out into retirement. Valiant effort by Morales, but Pacquiao has grown into an absolute monster.

5-8 +4.00 units

 

[tgbn]

Oh well
I won chagaev,but was way off base with pac,who came havier and stronger than both previous meetings;he absolutely butchered poor morales
Well done Pac