Math Wizards?

[Hells Kitchen]

I have Philly 100 to win 640 to win the NFC
I have Philly 100 to win 1300 to win the Super Bowl
I have Baltimore 100 to win 840 to win the Super Bowl.

Current Odds> Pitt-6,ml-270
Zona+3`,ml+170

To win Super Bowl/ Pitt+140
Zona+ 640

I placed the Philly wager before the playoffs started and the Ravens one after the wild card games.I have put myself in an enviable position and fully intend to hedge.

My plan right now is to play a 7 point tease with Zona and Pitt and in a perfect world Philly wins by 10 or less thus winning my tease,winning the 640 on the NFC bet and still be alive to win the Super Bowl bet.

I could do a moneyline parlay on zona with pitt.I could hedge against st8 up.

I`d really appreciate some ideas and strategies as to how to maximize my potential for winning.

And no I`m not letting the bet ride!
Bird in the hand syndrome one would say.

Thx in advance!

 

[TomGshotput]

Arizona ml is the only bet you make

hedging a future bet when a dog still needs to win two more is throwing money away (didn't someone just try this with Arizona-Carolina game)

a tease wouldn't work, since it would become possible for you to lose everything -- Arizona beating Baltimore in the SuperBowl is highly unlikely, but there are other scenerios that wouldn't be too good either

If Steelers beat the Eagles, you still win $340 - bet enough on Cardinals ml to cover that much or a little more

 

[Snookslayer]

To me, hedging effectively means paying more juice so I never do it. But, here's the formula to hedge the PHI/ARI game:

X * 1.7 - 200 = 640 - X

X = 311.11

Therefore, bet $311.11 on the ARI moneyline and you're gauranteed to win $329 regardless of the outcome.

 

[Hells Kitchen]

Thx for the replies gents.
But with my 2 super bowl wagers I want to use what we call in poker as implied odds thus my wanting to play the tease.
Call it getting a little greedy.
Hows this for a scenario Zona +10` teased with pitt +1(although i would wait as this line "should" go down by Sunday)
In a perfect world Philly wins by 10 or less,Balt wins by 1(i should get 1.5 or even 2 by Sunday) then i win the tease or at least push if the line does not move and am still alive with both super bowl bets. Iknow its wishfull thinking but its just one of the scenarios i have run through my head.

Now if I played zona on the moneyline I would moneyline parlay it with pitt,because at least i would not be shutout of my baltimore future.

 

[Snookslayer]

Thx for the replies gents.
But with my 2 super bowl wagers I want to use what we call in poker as implied odds thus my wanting to play the tease.
Call it getting a little greedy.
Hows this for a scenario Zona +10` teased with pitt +1(although i would wait as this line "should" go down by Sunday)
In a perfect world Philly wins by 10 or less,Balt wins by 1(i should get 1.5 or even 2 by Sunday) then i win the tease or at least push if the line does not move and am still alive with both super bowl bets. Iknow its wishfull thinking but its just one of the scenarios i have run through my head.

Now if I played zona on the moneyline I would moneyline parlay it with pitt,because at least i would not be shutout of my baltimore future.

You don't need a math wizard. You need NASA.

:toast:

 

[TomGshotput]

Knowing Baltimore had to win three straight weeks as a dog, why did you even play the future on them if you wanted to hedge after one week?

Would have been far better to simply bet them to beat Tennessee

The teaser still seems like a couple real bad possibilities: Eagles win by more than 10, then lose to Pittsburgh; even worse, Arizona beats Baltimore in the Super Bowl. With the chance that one of those could happen, it isn't a hedge, it's another gamble

Interested in seeing what you do and how it plays out

 

[Hells Kitchen]

racked my feeble little mind and here`s what i came up with

ML parlay Zona with Pitt ml 150 to win 427
Parlay Zona + 4,-.20 with Pitt ml 150 to win 229

Would`nt Philly by a boot be lovely:drink: