math guys

[$tinky]

Help me with this please. Lets say someone wants to bet that they can pick 10 games at -110 point spreads and get 7 or better correct.

What would the odds be on them doing that? I know this is simple but I'm slow.

 

[D2bets]

What are we assuming as far as the win % for each play?

 

[Murphy8276]

roughly 30-35% chance.

considering every game is 50% chance of winning and over 10 games avg would be 5-5 so 2 over that 10 game avg is 20% less likely.. give or take 5% as a fair deviation.

30+ or - 5 % chance i guess sounds about right.

gl in ur bet.

 

[Santo]

If you say he hits 50% then it's a standard probability function... 10Cx/2^10

So
P(0) = 0.001
P(1) = 0.010
P(2) = 0.044
P(3) = 0.117
P(4) = 0.205
P(5) = 0.246
P(6) = 0.205
P(7) = 0.117
P(8) = 0.044
P(9) = 0.010
P(10)= 0.001

So P (7 or more) = 0.117 + 0.044 + 0.010 + 0.001 = 0.172 or 17.2%

 

[$tinky]

D2 the win % for each is 50/50 just regular games at posted spreads -110

OK so one guy has a 35% chance the other guy has a 65% chance.

What does that make ur moneyline?

Yes he gets 7/10 or better +???

No he is less than 7/10 -???


i'm trying to remain unbiased here.

 

[bellyputter]

Make every spread an even #.

 

[TomGshotput]

Read what santo wrote. Fair value on yes is +481

 

[$tinky]

thats what i was looking for so a

-550 +400

would be what you may see at a sports book?

on such a contest

 

[Hookandcrook+]

-100 +481

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

I can pick 7 losers out of ten....easy to do and have done it numerous times...

 

[$tinky]

I too have masterd that vd.

Why is it that that seems so much easier than picking winners.

 

[tatehill2000]

I can pick 7 losers out of ten....easy to do and have done it numerous times...

lol

yep

tater