Math Guys Need Your Help....

[Moon88]

:think2: Senerios

1) 100$ Parlay 3 Team at -160 each Team Payout 329.1$ vs same but getting payout 400$....is there a long term edge getting the latter payout?


2) 100$ 4 Team Parlay -160 each Team Payout 597.29$ vs same but getting payout 900$....is there a long term edge getting the latter payout?

Thanks
:banger:

 

[PatsFan1283]

I don't understand the question?

 

[MotorMouth]

I don't understand the question?

We need a math guy AND a language guy to solve this problem.:think2:

 

[Moon88]

I don't understand the question?

I don't understand ethier LOL

 

[RenoChazz]

You want to know if getting a payout of $400 instead of a standard $329 is enough to overcome the vig?

 

[Moon88]

You want to know if getting a payout of $400 instead of a standard $329 is enough to overcome the vig?

Yes...and Senerio 2.

 

[packer2012]

Has everything to do with what % of your plays you can win.

 

[Moon88]

Has everything to do with what % of your plays you can win.

Yes Let's Use the -160 Moneyline Mentioned Above. I Have figured it Out.

160÷260=0.615x100=(Implied Probability) 61.5 percent Chance of Winning.

Eg. 1
0.615x0.615x0.615=0.232 is Percentage of hitting 3 Team
23.2x4(4 is 3 Team Payout )-76.8x1=16 Percent Profit Expectation

Eg. 2
0.615x0.615x0.615x0.615=0.143
14.3x9-85.7x1=43 Percent

Looks Correct?

 

[NBAcapper08]

Either im missing something here or I dont know anything about math

 

[Moon88]

Either im missing something here or I dont know anything about math

Using Eg. 2 its about getting the 9/1 rather then the 5.97 you are supposed to get....
14.3x5.97-85.7x1= -0.329 Not Profitable Long Term

Getting 9/1 on 4 Team MoneyLine Faves of-160 is Profitable.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Yes it would be, why would anyone give you that?

 

[Moon88]

:think2: Assuming I know What I am Talking About the 3 Team at 4/1 is Not Profitable Long Term....Please Help.

 

[Moon88]

Yes it would be, why would anyone give you that?

Pat Just Inputing Some Numbers.....and Looking for an Edge that May Arise

 

[PatsFan1283]

If nobody is giving you those odds on 3 or 4 team parlays then what does it matter?

 

[Moon88]

If nobody is giving you those odds on 3 or 4 team parlays then what does it matter?

The 4/1 3 Team at-160 was available Yesterday...

 

[Moon88]

:think2: Assuming I know What I am Talking About the 3 Team at 4/1 is Not Profitable Long Term....Please Help.

....

 

[Moon88]

You want to know if getting a payout of $400 instead of a standard $329 is enough to overcome the vig?

Reno I think I Need 4.29?

 

[RenoChazz]

I simplified the question and just calculated them as if they were vig free (-140). (Assuming the market is correct) A -160 three team parlay would have to pay out $403.79 to break even. A pay out of $400 is still very generous just a small error in line would make you profitable. Was this a new years promotion?

A four teamer (-160) at $900 would be very profitable

 

[PatsFan1283]

How are you getting -140 as vig free on a -160?

-160/+140 would be about -147/148ish I think

Thus making the bet +EV

 

[RenoChazz]

How are you getting -140 as vig free on a -160?

-160/+140 would be about -147/148ish I think

Thus making the bet +EV

I'm very hung over and not thinking clearly, you're correct. -150 is break even.