Massive Soccer Project (MSP) Thread

[Sekrah]

All picks and plays will be tracked in this thread.

If you didn't see the other thread, this is a very large project I've been working on the past couple months with over 100 man-hours put into it. It involves some unique, "outside-the-box" handicapping factors that may or may not be revolutionary. :aktion033 We'll find out.

There will be alot of plays with this. We are looking at the mathematical edges and playing them by how big the edge is with either 1, 2, or 3 unit plays.

I may post picks as much as 2 or 3 days ahead of time. I'll be using the lines being offered at my primary book (SportsInteraction)



Syntax: Home Team v Away Team, home win%, draw%, away win %, Play: unit size


ARGENTINA PRIMERA DIVISION

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 28TH
Ca Independiente v Ca Banfield, 48%, 38%, 14%, Play: Draw +220, 1 UNIT

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 29TH
Ca Huracan v San Lorenzo, 46%, 40%, 14%, Play: Huracan +205, 2 UNIT
Argentinos Juniors v Rosario Central, , 48%, 16%, 36%, Play: Rosario +335, 2 UNIT
Godoy Cruz A.t. v Estudiantes De La Plata, 54%, 28%, 18%, Play: Godoy Cruz +185, 3 UNIT

There will be more picks over the next couple days for the weekend. I am still compiling data for various leagues and waiting for my primary book to post lines for other games.


​

 

[scimonji]

All picks and plays will be tracked in this thread.

If you didn't see the other thread, this is a very large project I've been working on the past couple months with over 100 man-hours put into it. It involves some unique, "outside-the-box" handicapping factors that may or may not be revolutionary. :aktion033 We'll find out.

So this is a STATISTIC method in which you try to get (with some calculation) the correct % that you feel for the results and if this % is different of an certain amount from the odd, you play it???
Anyway, good luck!!!!

(sorry for my bad bad bad bad english)

 

[Sekrah]

Yes.. This is purely mathematical calculations that projects what I hope are the true odds and then I will be playing the edges, (bigger units on bigger edges).

 

[Taparosca]

All picks and plays will be tracked in this thread.



ARGENTINA PRIMERA DIVISION

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 28TH
Ca Independiente v Ca Banfield, 48%, 38%, 14%, Play: Draw +220, 1 UNIT

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 29TH
Ca Huracan v San Lorenzo, 46%, 40%, 14%, Play: Huracan +205, 2 UNIT
Argentinos Juniors v Rosario Central, , 48%, 16%, 36%, Play: Rosario +335, 2 UNIT
Godoy Cruz A.t. v Estudiantes De La Plata, 54%, 28%, 18%, Play: Godoy Cruz +185, 3 UNIT

Independiente - Banfield is good pick, they have been terrible at home and Banfield is a good team, there is a lot of chances that you can get the draw here.

Huracan - San Lorenzo, its a derby, anything can happen but i just dont see a San Lorenzo win here although they need it to stay alive in the fight for the championship against Boca. Great odds here on Huracan, love the value here. Nevertheless, one tip here...Huracan will not be playing at home, this game will be at the Bombonera.

Argentinos - Rosario - I disagree in this one, Rosario is one of the worst away teams this season, dissapointing season for them but they need more this game than Argentinos. Argentinos is no longer in the Suramericana cup so they will want to gain the majority of points for upcoming tournaments, this is important (avoid promotion or get a spot on future cups). A win in the Paternal is almost impossible. I see a home win here.

Godoy - Estudiantes. Great value on Godoy here. Estudiantes is in a middle of the final of the Suramericana so maybe they will have their "B" team and they almost got the Libertadores spot with the win against Tigre last weekend (9 points ahead of Tigre with 3 games left) so we can see a Godoy win here.

Just want to share my thoughts, gl with your system.

TR

 

[Martinga]

Hey, i'm new but i've been following your project for some time now.
Best of luck, i'll def play some of your suggestions
ez

 

[PABronco]

Good stuff Harkes ; looked into SportsInteraction looks like a quality site... Any info to share on them ? I have a couple of questions regarding ... thanks PA

 

[Sekrah]

Good stuff Harkes ; looked into SportsInteraction looks like a quality site... Any info to share on them ? I have a couple of questions regarding ... thanks PA

I like them for the ease of getting money on and off, haven't had any payment problems.

I had been using Bookmaker as my prime out, but I switched to SI, Got tired of the ewallet fees.

 

[Sekrah]

Independiente - Banfield is good pick, they have been terrible at home and Banfield is a good team, there is a lot of chances that you can get the draw here.

Huracan - San Lorenzo, its a derby, anything can happen but i just dont see a San Lorenzo win here although they need it to stay alive in the fight for the championship against Boca. Great odds here on Huracan, love the value here. Nevertheless, one tip here...Huracan will not be playing at home, this game will be at the Bombonera.

Argentinos - Rosario - I disagree in this one, Rosario is one of the worst away teams this season, dissapointing season for them but they need more this game than Argentinos. Argentinos is no longer in the Suramericana cup so they will want to gain the majority of points for upcoming tournaments, this is important (avoid promotion or get a spot on future cups). A win in the Paternal is almost impossible. I see a home win here.

Godoy - Estudiantes. Great value on Godoy here. Estudiantes is in a middle of the final of the Suramericana so maybe they will have their "B" team and they almost got the Libertadores spot with the win against Tigre last weekend (9 points ahead of Tigre with 3 games left) so we can see a Godoy win here.

Just want to share my thoughts, gl with your system.

TR

Thanks for the input TR!

 

[Sekrah]

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA.1


FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 28TH
Hertha Bsc Berlin v 1. Fc KÖln, 49%, 36%, 15%, Play: Draw +230, 1 UNIT

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 29TH
Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Fc Bayern MÜnchen, 48%, 28%, 24%, Play: Leverkusen +150, 1 UNIT
Hannover 96 v Karlsruher Sc, 30%, 43%, 27%, Play: Draw +235, 2 UNIT

 

[chelseafan1]

Any EPL picks

 

[Taparosca]

Just a heads up...the godoy - estudiantes game will be on december 10th due to the suramericana final that Estudiantes will have next week...so obviously they wont play this weekend.

 

[Sekrah]

English Premiership

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 29TH
Aston Villa v Fulham Fc, 27%, 52%, 21%, Play: Draw +245, 3 UNIT
Stoke City v Hull City, 52%, 20%, 28%, Play: Stoke +130, 1 UNIT
Wigan Athletic v West Bromwich Albion, 55%, 36%, 9%, Play: Draw +235, 1 UNIT


English Premiership

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 29TH
Celtic Glasgow v Inverness Caledonian Thistle, 60%, 24%, 16%,Play: Draw +550, 1 UNIT
Falkirk Fc v Hibernian Fc, 34%, 42%, 24%, Play: Draw +220, 2 UNIT



There will be more from the Championship and League 1 posted here tomorrow morning around 6:00am ET. There will also be more picks from other leagues.

 

[Sekrah]

English Premier League

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 29TH
Aston Villa v Fulham Fc, 27%, 52%, 21%, Play: Draw +245, 3 UNIT
Stoke City v Hull City, 52%, 20%, 28%, Play: Stoke +130, 1 UNIT
Wigan Athletic v West Bromwich Albion, 55%, 36%, 9%, Play: Draw +235, 1 UNIT


Scottish Premier League

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 29TH
Celtic Glasgow v Inverness Caledonian Thistle, 60%, 24%, 16%,Play: Draw +550, 1 UNIT
Falkirk Fc v Hibernian Fc, 34%, 42%, 24%, Play: Draw +220, 2 UNIT



There will be more from the Championship and League 1 posted here tomorrow morning around 6:00am ET. There will also be more picks from other leagues.

 

[Sekrah]

Hertha scores 5 minutes from the death to bust our draw in the opening play! So close! hno:

 

[joeyfitzclick]

There's no way Callie Thistle gets a draw at Celtic Park.

 

[JohnMolson]

Maybe a little hangover from that Champions League debacle on Tuesday Joey :shocked:

 

[Sekrah]

FRIDAY RESULTS
ARG1 - Independiante-Banfield, Draw +220, 1 unit LOSS (0-1)
GER1 - Hertha Berlin-FC Koln, Draw +230, 1 unit LOSS (2-1)

Yesterday: 0-2 (-2.0 units)
Season: 0-2 (-2.0 units)


85th minute goal by Hertha and a sick 90th minute goal by 10-man Banfield on the road bury our draw wagers in the opening day of MSP! hno:

Our luck will turn around, I have little doubt! More plays for Saturday below.. Don't be concerned about the large number of draw wagers..

Although the system does tend to target high value plays, and draw wagers will be the majority of our plays, this many being shown below in the England Coca Cola League Championship is just an anomaly for this week. This system also is not afraid to play big dogs if it finds a situation it likes! These big dogs will hit at low percentages. I do have confidence in playing all of these selections below.


England - League Championship

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 29TH
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Birmingham City, 24%, 51%, 25%, Play: Draw +225, 3 UNIT
Burnley Fc v Derby County, 42%, 40%, 18%, Play: Draw +220, 1 UNIT
Charlton Athletic v Southampton Fc, 30%, 38%, 32%, Play: Draw +225, 1 UNIT
Crystal Palace v Queens Park Rangers, 44%, 44%, 12%, Play: Draw +225, 2 UNIT
Nottingham Forest v Barnsley Fc, 52%, 26%, 22%, Play: Nott Forest +125, 1 UNIT
Plymouth Argyle v Blackpool Fc, 35%, 46%, 19%, Play: Draw +230, 3 UNIT
Preston North End v Bristol City, 50%, 42%, 8%, Play: Draw +225, 2 UNIT


England - League One

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 29TH
Walsall Fc v Swindon Town, 35%, 42%, 23%, Play: Draw +225, 2 UNIT



France - Ligue 1

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 29TH
Ac Le Havre v Fc Nantes, 36%, 26%, 38%, Play: Nantes +225, 1 UNIT
Ogc Nice v Grenoble Foot, 70%, 18%, 12%, Play: Nice -143, 2 UNIT
Olympique Lyonnais v Valenciennes Fc, 54%, 29%, 17%, Play: Draw +400, 1 UNIT
Osc Lille v Fc Lorient, 48%, 26%, 26%, Play: Lorient +450, 1 UNIT
Fc Sochaux v Fc Girondins Bordeaux, 26%, 44%, 30%, Play: Draw +200, 2 UNIT


Italy - Serie A

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 29TH
Catania v Us Lecce, 63%, 17%, 20%, Play: Catania -125, 1 UNIT
Juventus Turin v Reggina Calcio, 52%, 28%, 20%, Play: Reggina +925, 2 UNIT



Netherlands - Eredivisie

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 29TH
Ado Den Haag v Twente Enschede, 30%, 43%, 27%, Play: Draw +230, 2 UNIT
Heracles Almelo v Willem Ii Tilburg, 45%, 36%, 19%, Play: Draw +240, 1 UNIT


Spain - La Liga

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 29TH
Fc Sevilla v Fc Barcelona, 31%, 37%, 32%, Play: Draw +225, 1 UNIT



Don't forget, there are Saturday games posted for the German Bundesliga and Argentina Primera in posts above.

 

[rolltide]

well the problem using a purely statistical method over a large number of leagues is the amount of plays it produces. You've got 25 or so games going today which makes it impossible to follow and none of us should "pick and choose" from the group. Best of luck though!

 

[Sekrah]

well the problem using a purely statistical method over a large number of leagues is the amount of plays it produces. You've got 25 or so games going today which makes it impossible to follow and none of us should "pick and choose" from the group. Best of luck though!

I advise shrinking your standard unit size and playing all, and not picking and choosing.

 

[kaynem]

This already looks gold! The draws are hitting good and the ones that aren't are damn close.

What profit did the backtesting results produce in units?