LOOK AT FG% last ten games leading up to the Tournament ..... AND look at FT% of the teams in the Last 10 games in games that were decided by Five Points or less. You can get an idea who hits the Big FTs in a small line game or with the game (Or a Cover) at Stakes. Trying to get an idea which teams have an advantage of riding a Hot Shooting Hand. Finally, look at the Bench Depth of a team .... who has guys that can play 3-4 men off the bench without dropping off too much on the court.
NCAA Tournament BBall imo is a pick the winner on the floor event. Using a cut-off number of minus 9.5 and under I try to pick the team I feel will win the game on the floor and basically let the point spread take care of itself. With desparation fouling in high gear, taking single digits, and hoping they are enough to win a bet while your team loses the game is risky at best. Go back over any past tournament and see what the ATS winning % is for teams that win outright in games with single digit point spreads. In fact this method is also effective in Conference tournaments for the very same reason, fouling when behind late. Natrually picking the winner is easier said then done, as plenty of dogs win outright, so its not a just bet the favorite and forget method. Big favs or dogs are different because teams behind by double digits late are much less apt to intentionally foul in the last minute.
wil.
wil.
public perception has the ability to strongly inflate the lines during these tourney games. This is the biggest wagering period of the year. From a value perspective, you will be on the better end of it going against the big public teams. I look to fade classic "public" teams, Duke being the best example. If you use this as a guideline and pick your spots, you will do OK.
HOwever revenge from a nationally televised early season non-conf. match-up is BIG. The loser will almost always "cover, if not win outright" the 2nd time around. For example should fla. play zona again; zona would kill them. The list goes on, it's around 70% y-t-y though and makes for excellent pocket change.
I think in the NCAA tourney you have to take the absolute worst side available. Taking Missouri +2 against Miss St. Stuff like that. If it doesn't make sense I am always on the side that doesn't make sense.
Fezzik- I didn't say which way to play double revenge. According to a database I follow the avenger is only like 44%. The past three years it has really flipped around. Sometimes double revenge just points out who the better team is. Sports reporter has done a lot of research on double revenge and its not as huge as it used to be.
Fezzik- I didn't say which way to play double revenge. According to a database I follow the avenger is only like 44%. The past three years it has really flipped around. Sometimes double revenge just points out who the better team is. Sports reporter has done a lot of research on double revenge and its not as huge as it used to be.
1. Play the under in the 2nd half of an elimination game, when it is less than a 2point game at halftime and the original spread is less than 5.5
2. fade a 2seed in a confrence semi final, if it is not a home game and they are going to be a 7.5 dog or higher to a 1seed if they win.
3. Take the underdog of a halftime, if the favorite is laying more than 25% of their total pts scored in the 1st half
4. fade a team playing a 4th straight day vs a team that is not
5. do not be sidetracked by other sports during the tournaments, and do not be greedy.
2. fade a 2seed in a confrence semi final, if it is not a home game and they are going to be a 7.5 dog or higher to a 1seed if they win.
3. Take the underdog of a halftime, if the favorite is laying more than 25% of their total pts scored in the 1st half
4. fade a team playing a 4th straight day vs a team that is not
5. do not be sidetracked by other sports during the tournaments, and do not be greedy.
