March Bases ⚾

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

TUESDAY
3/2.13 REDS -141
2/2.80 REDS -1½ +140
3/2.36 PHILLIES -127
2/2.70 PHILLIES -1½ +135
3/2.50 DIAMONDBACKS -1½ -120
3/2.14 NATS +1½ -140
3/2.42 O'S -124
2/2.70 O'S -1½ +135
3/5.85 WHITE SOX +195
2/1.72 WHITE SOX +1½ -116
4/1.86 M'S +1½ -215
3/2.46 ASTROS -122
3/2.61 RAYS -115
2/2.80 RAYS -1½ +140
3/1.67 YANKEES -180
2/2.30 YANKEES -1½ +115
3/2.86 DODGERS -1½ -105

Total 45/43.16 -104​

WEDNESDAY​

• 3/2.26 PHILLIES -133
• 2/2.66 PHILLIES -1½ +133
• 4/3.08 DIAMONDBACKS -130
• 2/2.30 DIAMONDBACKS -1½ +115
• 3/2.19 PADRES -137
• 3/3.00 PADRES u8 +100
• 3/2.29 REDS -131
• 4/3.15 RAYS -127
• 2/2.50 RAYS -1½ +125
• 5/2.15 GUARDIANS -233
• 4/3.64 GUARDIANS -1½ -110
• 4/4.04 O'S +101
• 3/2.86 O'S o9 -105
• 4/3.51 ASTROS -114
• 3/5.13 A'S +171
• 2/1.67 A'S +1½ -120
• 3/3.00 TWINS +1½ +100
• 3/2.61 TWINS u9 -115
• 3/1.44 YANKEES -208
• 2/2.00 YANKEES -1½ +100

Total 62/55.46 -112​

randoms...

• MILEY 10-3 +42.7% ALLTIME VS CIN
• NOLA 8-4 +27.3% (+32% ON RL) ALTIMES VS STL
• GOMBER 6-1 +73.1% ALLTIME VS ARI
• CHW 26-45 -23.8% IN FIRST 30 GAMES SINCE 2022(14-21 -21% @home)
• CHW 19-43 -36.2% AFTER A WIN SINCE 2023

 

[mrpickem]

WEDNESDAY
3/2.26 PHILLIES -133
2/2.66 PHILLIES -1½ +133
4/3.08 DIAMONDBACKS -130
2/2.30 DIAMONDBACKS -1½ +115
3/2.19 PADRES -137
3/3.00 PADRES u8 +100
3/2.29 REDS -131
4/3.15 RAYS -127
2/2.50 RAYS -1½ +125
5/2.15 GUARDIANS -233
4/3.64 GUARDIANS -1½ -110
4/4.04 O'S +101
3/2.86 O'S o9 -105
4/3.51 ASTROS -114
3/5.13 A'S +171
2/1.67 A'S +1½ -120
3/3.00 TWINS +1½ +100
3/2.61 TWINS u9 -115
3/1.44 YANKEES -208
2/2.00 YANKEES -1½ +100
Total 62/55.46 -112

2024 [94-95 -6.11u]
LAST [11-9 +4.14u]

THURSDAY​

• 3/2.00 5-INN Braves -150
• 3/4.20 Brewers -1½ +140
• 4/5.20 Pirates +130
• 3/2.86 Pirates o9 -105
• 4/3.03 Astros -132
• 4/3.33 Orioles -120
• 3/4.20 Orioles -1½ +140

24/24.82 +103​

randoms...

ATL AS ROAD DIV FAV L3 YEARS: ML 41-14 +22% RL 34-21 +22.3%​

BAL 53-32 +18.8% SINCE 2023 @NIGHT OMIT SEP-OCT​

BAL 13-4 +28.8% SINCE 2023 @NIGHT IN MAR-APR​

BOS 10-17 -33.9% @HOME IN MAR-APR VS RIGHTIES L3 YEARS​

 

[mrpickem]

 

[indiana]

Mr. "P"....BOL with your action today buddy....indy

 

[mrpickem]

KC sneaking up the rankings with stellar pitching, although they've had one of the easier schedules so far.

 

[mrpickem]

THURSDAY
3/2.00 5-INN Braves -150
3/4.20 Brewers -1½ +140
4/5.20 Pirates +130
3/2.86 Pirates o9 -105
4/3.03 Astros -132
4/3.33 Orioles -120
3/4.20 Orioles -1½ +140
24/24.82 +103

FRIDAY​

• 3/3.21 PHILLIES u9 +107
• 3/1.70 BRAVES -176
• 4/3.64 BRAVES -1½ -110
• 3/3.30 CARDINALS +110
• 2/1.06 CARDINALS +1½ -188
• 4/2.25 DODGERS -178
• 3/2.86 DODGERS u8½ -105
• 4/3.39 TIGERS -119
• 4/2.84 YANKEES -141
• 2/2.40 YANKEES -1½ +120
• 3/3.09 GUARDIANS u8½ +103
• 3/2.94 ANGELS -102
• 2/1.00 ANGELS +1½ -200
• 3/2.36 ASTROS -127
• 4/3.85 GIANTS -104
• 4/3.64 ORIOLES -110
• 4/4.00 ROCKIES +1½ +100
• 4/2.11 ROYALS +1½ -190
• 6/3.64 REDS -165
• 3/3.39 CUBS +113
• 2/1.04 CUBS +1½ -192
• 4/4.68 NATIONALS +117
• 2/1.12 NATIONALS +1½ -179

76/63.46 -120​

randoms...

• ATL 17-4 +35.9% AWAY ON FRIDAY L730 DAYS(RL ROI +38.7%)
• FRIED 10-3 +23.8% ALLTIME VS MIA
• FRIED 19-5 +14.3% w/FAV -150 OR MORE L730 DAYS
• ROGERS 0-7 ALLTIME VS ATL

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

FRIDAY
3/3.21 PHILLIES u9 +107
3/1.70 BRAVES -176
4/3.64 BRAVES -1½ -110
3/3.30 CARDINALS +110
2/1.06 CARDINALS +1½ -188
4/2.25 DODGERS -178
3/2.86 DODGERS u8½ -105
4/3.39 TIGERS -119
4/2.84 YANKEES -141
2/2.40 YANKEES -1½ +120
3/3.09 GUARDIANS u8½ +103
3/2.94 ANGELS -102
2/1.00 ANGELS +1½ -200
3/2.36 ASTROS -127
4/3.85 GIANTS -104
4/3.64 ORIOLES -110
4/4.00 ROCKIES +1½ +100
4/2.11 ROYALS +1½ -190
6/3.64 REDS -165
3/3.39 CUBS +113
2/1.04 CUBS +1½ -192
4/4.68 NATIONALS +117
2/1.12 NATIONALS +1½ -179
76/63.46 -120

SATURDAY​

• 5/6.90 Pirates +138
• 4/2.08 BRAVES -192
• 4/3.70 CARDINALS -108
• 2/3.00 CARDINALS -1½ +150
• 5/4.42 TWINS GM#1 -113
• 3/4.35 TWINS GM#1 -1½ +145
• 4/3.67 ANGELS -109
• 4/3.81 ANGELS o10½ -105
• 4/5.40 METS -1½ +135
• 5/4.24 REDS -118
• 3/5.07 ROCKIES +169
• 4/3.81 ROCKIES o9 -105
• 5/3.68 ORIOLES -136
• 3/4.35 ORIOLES -1½ +145
• 6/4.84 NATIONALS -124
• 2/2.80 NATIONALS -1½ +140
• 4/2.96 CUBS -135
• 2/2.50 CUBS -1½ +125
• 5/3.76 YANKEES GM#1 -133
• 2/2.60 YANKEES GM#1 -1½ +130

77/78.46 +102​

randoms...

• DOGS BARKING L5 DAYS: 31-32 +14.7%

 

[mrpickem]

SATURDAY
5/6.90 Pirates +138
4/2.08 BRAVES -192
4/3.70 CARDINALS -108
2/3.00 CARDINALS -1½ +150
5/4.42 TWINS GM#1 -113
3/4.35 TWINS GM#1 -1½ +145
4/3.67 ANGELS -109
4/3.81 ANGELS o10½ -105
4/5.40 METS -1½ +135
5/4.24 REDS -118
3/5.07 ROCKIES +169
4/3.81 ROCKIES o9 -105
5/3.68 ORIOLES -136
3/4.35 ORIOLES -1½ +145
6/4.84 NATIONALS -124
2/2.80 NATIONALS -1½ +140
4/2.96 CUBS -135
2/2.50 CUBS -1½ +125
5/3.76 YANKEES GM#1 -133
2/2.60 YANKEES GM#1 -1½ +130
77/78.46 +102

2024 [115-120 -28.71u]
LAST [8-12 -14.13u]

SUNDAY​

• 5/8.35 Pirates +167
• 2/1.60 Pirates +1½ -125
• 5/4.55 Phillies u8½ -110
• 5/6.95 Marlins +139
• 4/3.20 Marlins +1½ -125
• 4/3.64 Marlins u8½ -110
• 4/5.60 DBACKS -1½ +140
• 5/5.25 DBACKS u8½ +105
• 4/2.86 Padres +1½ -140
• 4/4.00 DODGERS u8½ +100
• 4/3.81 RED SOX u9½ -105
• 5/3.91 Yankees -128
• 2/2.50 Yankees -1½ +125
• 4/3.48 Guardians u9 -115
• 4/2.20 Orioles -182
• 3/3.45 Orioles -1½ +115
• 5/4.76 Orioles u8½ -105
• 6/4.92 ROYALS -122
• 2/2.70 ROYALS -1½ +135
• 4/4.40 RAYS +110
• 6/3.85 REDS -156
• 4/3.81 REDS o9 -105
• 4/4.80 NATIONALS +120
• 4/5.04 CUBS +126
• 4/3.92 Mariners u7½ -102

152/148.07 -103​

randoms...

• EOVALDI 10-5 +31.2% ALLTIME VS HOU
• JAVIER 8-4 +12.4% ALLTIME VS TEX
• PIT IN APRIL SINCE '22 - 34-26 +22.1%
• PIT AWAY IN APRIL SINCE '22 - 17-14 +23.4%
• PHI HOME GAMES IN APRIL SINCE '22 GO UNDER 62% (37-23-2 +18.4%)
• LUZARDO @home w/MIA 22-16 +12.6%
• LUZARDO 3.52 ERA IN 6 CAREER STARTS VS OAK
• NYY 8-1 +74.5% AWAY THIS SEASON
• CIN 30-18 +29.7% INTER-LEAGUE SINCE '23 (20-5 AWAY +65%)

 

[mrpickem]

Don't look now, but the Brewcrew's ballin!

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

SUNDAY
5/8.35 Pirates +167
2/1.60 Pirates +1½ -125
5/4.55 Phillies u8½ -110
5/6.95 Marlins +139
4/3.20 Marlins +1½ -125
4/3.64 Marlins u8½ -110
4/5.60 Diamondbacks -1½ +140
5/5.25 Diamondbacks u8½ +105
4/2.86 Padres +1½ -140
4/4.00 DODGERS u8½ +100
4/3.81 Red Sox u9½ -105
5/3.91 Yankees -128
2/2.50 Yankees -1½ +125
4/3.48 Guardians u9 -115
4/2.20 Orioles -182
3/3.45 Orioles -1½ +115
5/4.76 Orioles u8½ -105
6/4.92 ROYALS -122
2/2.70 ROYALS -1½ +135
4/4.40 RAYS +110
6/3.85 REDS -156
4/3.81 REDS o9 -105
4/4.80 NATIONALS +120
4/5.04 CUBS +126
4/3.92 Mariners u7½ -102
152/148.07 -103

MONDAY​

• 4/3.96 Giants -101
• 2/2.96 Giants -1½ +148
• 4/4.20 Giants o8½ +105
• 3/6.93 Rockies +231
• 2/2.20 Rockies +1½ +110
• 4/4.44 Pirates +111
• 4/3.33 Pirates u8½ -120
• 6/5.22 Padres -115
• 2/2.76 Padres -1½ +138
• 4/4.96 Cubs +124
• 5/5.25 Dbacks u8½ +105
• 4/1.28 Dodgers -312
• 4/3.64 Orioles u9 -110
• 5/4.55 Rangers -110
• 2/2.90 Rangers -1½ +145
• 4/6.00 Angels +150
• 5/4.95 Yankees -101
• 3/2.73 Braves -110
• 2/2.86 Braves -1½ +143
• 4/2.35 Cardinals -170
• 4/2.50 Reds +1½ -160

77/79.97 +104​

randoms...

• CHW 2-13 START THEIR WORST IN 140 YEAR TEAM HISTORY
• • KC ON ROAD AWAY 5-16 -37.7% '22-'24 (RL 8-13 -36.7%)
• RAYS OVER HAS CASHED 63.3% (57-33-3 +20.3%) SINCE LAST SEASON
• METS UNDER HAS CASHED 63.1% (53-31-6 +19.2%) SINCE LAST SEASON

 

[mrpickem]

MONDAY
4/3.96 Giants -101
2/2.96 Giants -1½ +148
4/4.20 Giants o8½ +105
3/6.93 Rockies +231
2/2.20 Rockies +1½ +110
4/4.44 Pirates +111
4/3.33 Pirates u8½ -120
6/5.22 Padres -115
2/2.76 Padres -1½ +138
4/4.96 Cubs +124
5/5.25 Dbacks u8½ +105
4/1.28 Dodgers -312
4/3.64 Orioles u9 -110
5/4.55 Rangers -110
2/2.90 Rangers -1½ +145
4/6.00 Angels +150
5/4.95 Yankees -101
3/2.73 Braves -110
2/2.86 Braves -1½ +143
4/2.35 Cardinals -170
4/2.50 Reds +1½ -160
77/79.97 +104

TUESDAY​

• 4/2.96 GIANTS -135
• 3/3.90 GIANTS -1½ +130
• 5/4.24 PADRES -119
• 3/4.20 PADRES -1½ +140
• 4/3.48 CUBS o10 -115
• 3/2.54 RANGERS -118
• 2/2.90 RANGERS -1½ +145
• 4/2.45 ORIOLES -163
• 2/2.60 ORIOLES -1½ +130
• 4/3.64 ORIOLES u8½ -110
• 3/4.17 ANGELS +139
• 2/1.33 ANGELS +1½ -150
• 4/3.81 RAYS u8 -105
• 5/4.85 YANKEES -103
• 3/3.00 GUARDIANS +100
• 2.05/1 GUARDIANS +1½ -205
• 4/4.20 RED SOX u8½ +105
• 6/3.49 ROYALS -172
• 3/2.78 BRAVES -108
• 2/2.80 BRAVES -1½ +140
• 4/2.11 REDS +1½ -190
• 5/3.62 CARDINALS -138
• 2/2.40 CARDINALS -1½ +120
• 4/4.00 ATHLETICS u8 +100

83/76.44 -109​

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

Late night add, I hate playing these big favorites plus t6he Nationals have been one of the most profitable teams thus far in '24...but I just couldn't stay off it, along with the over. LFG!

• 4/1.57 DODGERS -255
• 4/4.20 NATIONALS o9½ +105

 

[mrpickem]

I don't fully understand why model likes MIL so much. Personally, I think they are barely top 10 but the model represents pure numbers, unfettered.

 

[mrpickem]

TUESDAY
4/2.96 GIANTS -135
3/3.90 GIANTS -1½ +130
5/4.24 PADRES -119
3/4.20 PADRES -1½ +140
4/3.48 CUBS o10 -115
3/2.54 RANGERS -118
2/2.90 RANGERS -1½ +145
4/2.45 ORIOLES -163
2/2.60 ORIOLES -1½ +130
4/3.64 ORIOLES u8½ -110
3/4.17 ANGELS +139
2/1.33 ANGELS +1½ -150
4/3.81 RAYS u8 -105
5/4.85 YANKEES -103
3/3.00 GUARDIANS +100
2.05/1 GUARDIANS +1½ -205
4/4.20 RED SOX u8½ +105
6/3.49 ROYALS -172
3/2.78 BRAVES -108
2/2.80 BRAVES -1½ +140
4/2.11 REDS +1½ -190
5/3.62 CARDINALS -138
2/2.40 CARDINALS -1½ +120
4/4.00 ATHLETICS u8 +100
4/1.57 DODGERS -255
4/4.20 NATIONALS o9½ +105
91/82.21 -111

2024 [152-154 -22.66u]
LAST [13-12-1 -4.93u]

WEDNESDAY​

• 3/3.09 GIANTS +103
• 4/4.00 GIANTS o8½ +100
• 5/4.63 PADRES -108
• 2/3.10 PADRES -1½ +155
• 2/2.78 PIRATES +139
• 4/3.48 METS u8½ -115
• 4/1.71 DODGERS -234
• 2/1.74 DODGERS -1½ -115
• 4/4.20 DODGERS o9½ +105
• 5/5.45 CUBS +109
• 4/1.83 PHILLIES -218
• 2/1.94 PHILLIES -1½ -103
• 4/4.16 ORIOLES +104
• 4/3.64 ORIOLES o8 -110
• 4/3.33 TIGERS u7½ -120
• 5/2.81 G1 ROYALS -178
• 4/4.40 G1 WHITE SOX u8½ +110
• 4/4.40 G2 WHITE SOX u8½ +110
• 5/4.85 YANKEES -103
• 4/4.00 ANGELS o8½ +100
• 4/3.20 RED SOX -125
• 4/3.64 RED SOX u9 -110
• 3/2.24 BRAVES -134
• 2/2.36 BRAVES -1½ +118
• 4/4.08 ASTROS u9 +102
• 4/2.88 CARDINALS -139
• 4/4.00 ATHLETICS u8 +100
• 4/3.15 M'S -127

104/95.09 -109

randoms...

• SINGER 8-4 +38.3% ALLTIME VS CHW
• KC 3-15 -65.6% AFTER SHUTOUT WIN '22-24...basically a useless stat as KC had lost 17 straight in that situation, but have now won their last 3
  

 

[mrpickem]

WEDNESDAY
3/3.09 GIANTS +103
4/4.00 GIANTS o8½ +100
5/4.63 PADRES -108
2/3.10 PADRES -1½ +155
2/2.78 PIRATES +139
4/3.48 METS u8½ -115
4/1.71 DODGERS -234
2/1.74 DODGERS -1½ -115
4/4.20 DODGERS o9½ +105
5/5.45 CUBS +109
4/1.83 PHILLIES -218
2/1.94 PHILLIES -1½ -103
4/4.16 ORIOLES +104
4/3.64 ORIOLES o8 -110
4/3.33 TIGERS u7½ -120
5/2.81 G1 ROYALS -178
4/4.40 G1 WHITE SOX u8½ +110
4/4.40 G2 WHITE SOX u8½ +110
5/4.85 YANKEES -103
4/4.00 ANGELS o8½ +100
4/3.20 RED SOX -125
4/3.64 RED SOX u9 -110
3/2.24 BRAVES -134
2/2.36 BRAVES -1½ +118
4/4.08 ASTROS u9 +102
4/2.88 CARDINALS -139
4/4.00 ATHLETICS u8 +100
4/3.15 M'S -127
104/95.09 -109

Yesterday I was getting crushed and down ~25u before hitting 7 of last 8 for a winning day. Also I've been hitting my ML plays much harder. (27-16 +37u last 4 days)

​

THURSDAY​

• 5/6.70 MARLINS +134
• 4/3.81 CUBS u8 -105
• 4/3.48 GIANTS u8 -115
• 3/2.00 RAYS -150
• 2/2.80 RAYS -1½ +140
• 5/4.81 RANGERS -104
• 4/3.51 RED SOX -114
• 4/3.33 Guardians o9 -120

31/30.44 -102

 

[mrpickem]

THURSDAY
5/6.70 MARLINS +134
4/3.81 CUBS u8 -105
4/3.48 GIANTS u8 -115
3/2.00 RAYS -150
2/2.80 RAYS -1½ +140
5/4.81 RANGERS -104
4/3.51 RED SOX -114
4/3.33 Guardians o9 -120

31/30.44 -102​

FRIDAY​

• 4/4.68 CARDINALS +117
• 4/4.00 CARDINALS u7½ +100
• 3/1.58 Dodgers -190
• 4/3.48 Dodgers u8½ -115
• 5/3.21 YANKEES -156
• 4/4.20 Yankees u8½ +105
• 4/3.81 Guardians u8½ -105
• 6/4.48 O'S -134
• 2/2.40 O'S -1½ +120
• 4/3.70 PIRATES -108
• 3/4.92 White Sox +164
• 4/2.47 ASTROS -162
• 4/2.07 Braves -193
• 4/3.08 M'S -130
• 5/5.15 JAYS +103

61/53.75 -113​

​