Making Your Own Line

[terpkeg]

This year im going to attempt to make my own line just looking for some opinions on my set up and then wondering how much people who make their own lne asses to home field.

Was going to take each position (qb, rb, rcv, oline, dline, lb, db, spc tm) and rank teams from 1-32, then divide them into 4 categories

4 points for elite game changers, best in the biz
3 points for position that you can consistantly count on to give your tem an advantage
2 points for neutral, some days good game, some days bad game
1 point for liability, position needs work and everyone knows it.

start with a base then adjust from week to week pending on injuries, momentum, production.

then add up totals.

people who have made their own line, is this set-up a good indictor of a teams success? is this just a waste of my time?

how much for home field using a system such as this?

 

[Jetplane]

I'd have to find my spreadsheet on how I came up with my own lines but I'm a very big situational capper. I analyze what defenses play what offenses. I take Player vs Player matchups and see the success that each has made. I look at tendencies of each team and I go from there on capping the "better" team.

I don't give each position a power ranking but rather a team overall when I make lines. I also make judgements on where they are vs league avg when it comes to playable or not.

 

[terpkeg]

thanks for the input. forgot to say that the base number would not be where i set my line, i would then look at like you said player v player match-ups and situational factors. for example if both teams add up to same number but one team is the #1 rush team in the league and the other is 20 stopping the run, i would clearly adjust my line to reflect.

input of all people with own lines welcome and appreciated.

 

[Snookslayer]

Seems like a lot of work, but it would be interesting.

It beats my "gut feeling" system.

 

[Jetplane]

Yeah, I lost all my spreadsheets. I mainly used it for NCAAB but I remember using TEAM PERFORMANCE/STATS vs the other teams' stats.

EXP: Passing/fumbles/etc.

In NCAAB it was ASSIST/PPG/etc. but I incorporated their league average standing against the opponents strong points such as what you mentioned--Good Rushing vs Bad Rush D

 

[ACE-ACE]

won with this 11 out of 14 years
ITS BASE ON FOUR THING
1..LINE-OFF
2..TIME
3..PENALTIES
4..TURN OVER ONLY BY THE TEAM

most of the time the line is close to the real line 80%...its the other 20% that I make the money

here is two links that talk about it in detail

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=321183&highlight=formula+LINE

and

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=352051&highlight=formula+LINE


anything you want to know ...let me know

AA

 

[liftnbet]

thanks fellas

 

[terpkeg]

Ace,

Have you found the preseason #'s you use for your line to be an accurate indication of regular season performance?

Its hard for me to give much wieght to to's and time of posession when the strters are getting minimal reps.

However, could it be an overall indication of a teams attitude, work ethic and in turn, success?

Plus good depth is always a + in the nfl.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace,

Have you found the preseason #'s you use for your line to be an accurate indication of regular season performance?

Its hard for me to give much wieght to to's and time of posession when the strters are getting minimal reps.

However, could it be an overall indication of a teams attitude, work ethic and in turn, success?

Plus good depth is always a + in the nfl.

It takes 4 weeks to made "myline" work...by doing preseasons... it makes me bet week 3...than to not use it and have to start at week 4!...trust me...been testing this for over 15 years...one week dont change the line that much...and after week 8 you could take it out or use it and myline would be the same....remember base on those 4 stats...it tells how a team plays...pre....reg....playoff....it does not matter

my line only shows the games to look at...you still have to do all the other capping....I look for a +6 edge or more....hope that helps

anything I can do ...ask