Major Playoff Problems?

[BigdaddyQH]

Just had a very interesting conversation about the potential for some major problems with the Playoff System. The scenario plays out this way.

Ohio State wins the Big 10. Michigan loses at Ohio State to finish at 11-1.
Oregon loses to Michigan State and a Pac 10 game but wins the CC game to win the Conference at 11-2.
Some SEC team (take your pick out of 4 or 5) also loses two games but wins the CC game and finishes 11-2.
Florida State stumbles along the way, but wins the ACC at 12-1.
Some 11-1 team in the Big 12-2 is declared Champion, but did not win a CC game. A second team also is 11-1.

Now here is where all the fun starts. Obviously Ohio State is in. What about the other three spots. If you give them to Conference Champions, then Oregon, The SEC winner, and Florida State are in, very similar to last year.

If you go with the least number of losses, then Michigan State (who defeated Pac 12 Champ Oregon), Florida State, and a Big 12 team are in. That means both the Pac 12 and SEC are penalized because their conferences are so much better than the rest of the conferences that it is nearly impossible to run the table, especially when you look at Baylor and TCU and see who they play non-con wise.

The two most popular theories at this point is that the Big 12 winner replaces Florida State and the other three Champions advance, or unless a Big 12 team has less losses than 4 other teams from other conferences, they are once again punished for not having a CC game.

If it were as easy as picking the four teams that you think are best, we would not behaving this discussion now, but we know that this is not the case. It should be interesting. This is why I think that losses are critical this season.

 

[CFBLore]

That is a very reasonable scenario. In this case I think the final four in order would be OSU, SEC, P12, B12. MSU would not have had one more game than the B12 like OhSt did last year which vaulted them to #4.

 

[GoSooners]

The NCAA should have had the foresight to see these potential problems. I said on here a few years ago when we first heard a playoff was coming, that they should have done a dry run on this and see how it goes before they implement it. If they had, they would have probably reached the conclusion that an 8 team playoff was the better way to go. It would have thrown all of these potential playoff problems out the window

 

[CFBLore]

The one main reason I think an 8 team playoff would ruin this sport is that it would likely have the conference champs automatically get a spot which would make out of conference games near pointless. How great is Oregon at Michigan St in week 2? In an 8 teamer it would be as important as Alabama vs Chattanooga. There is always the wild card spots but this sport's life blood has always been the importance of the regular season. The larger the playoff field, the less important the regular season. I do miss the sport from the 80s and 90s. I fear in 10 years it might be tough to even watch.

 

[GoSooners]

The biggest problem with not having an 8 team playoff is we have only 4 playoff spots for 5 conferences. So they really aren't accomplishing much more than when they had the old BCS system. Somebody is getting left out of the picture. The danger here is if the teams from the best conferences start getting left out of the playoff because their conference was so competitive throughout the season. It could very well happen to the Pac-12 this year. Maybe even the SEC. To me there is nothing more unfair than a team who has gone through the toughest wars nationally or in their conference, and after all that work throughout a long season they get left out in the end. The question is, do you want the luckiest teams with the most favorable schedules in the playoff or the best teams? I know what I prefer. With an 8 team playoff we would have 5 conference winners with only 3 slots left. And you know there will probably be some non-power 5 conference team or Notre Dame make a run during the season to get in for the 6th slot. That basically leaves just 2 slots at the most left for other Power 5 teams. So there isn't that much room for error during the season. I don't think 8 teams would take anything away from the regular season. You still have to play good enough to make the first 5 slots. And you still won't have any room for error if you don't win your conference. If there were 16+ teams in the playoff you would have an argument. But not 8 teams.

 

[CFBLore]

I know Big XII fans are jaded at the moment because they were left out but if GT had pulled out the W and with one other upset, Big XII likely would have put two teams in. Then all the Big XII fans would claim its a great system. Point being that we shouldn't claim the system is great or awful based solely on our teams' outcome. Step back, look at the overall health of the sport and the weekly impact of games, then make the determination. I was a detractor of going to four, but now that we have it, I think it is the perfect number. Going to eight will cripple the regular season.

 

[GoSooners]

I know Big XII fans are jaded at the moment because they were left out but if GT had pulled out the W and with one other upset, Big XII likely would have put two teams in. Then all the Big XII fans would claim its a great system. Point being that we shouldn't claim the system is great or awful based solely on our teams' outcome. Step back, look at the overall health of the sport and the weekly impact of games, then make the determination. I was a detractor of going to four, but now that we have it, I think it is the perfect number. Going to eight will cripple the regular season.

I was pretty much pointing it out from the beginning that they should have gone with 8 teams. Yes, I was a little surprised the Big 12 got left out last year. Everything had to go perfect for it to happen. But what some people (Big cough cough Daddy) around here don't realize is I'm kind of glad the Big 12 got left out of the playoff as long as it wasn't OU. I know that's selfish thinking, but the Big 12 brass got what they deserved by not not having any forward thinking and worrying too much about the bottom line. I knew if the Big 12 got in the playoff that the brass would be perfectly content with 10 teams for here on out, or until there is a big conference alignment shakeup. But that may not come for a long time, we just don't know. I still don't get your point with 8 teams crippling the regular season. Does 64 teams cripple basketball? It still comes down to seeding and putting yourself in the best possible position. No blueblood program wants to have a weak schedule and be the 8th seed every year that has to travel to the number one seed's home field for the quarterfinals. I would agree that 8 is the max we ever want to go. I would even be satisfied with 6 teams. When you go beyond 15 or 16 games in college football schedule, teams will start hitting the wall and we may not see the best product on the field. Just the ones who are deeper or got lucky and stayed healthier throughout the season. Although not my first choice, even a 6 teamer would be okay. A bye week to start the playoffs would be another thing for a program to strive for. But they can't reach that goal unless they play the best teams and take care of business during the regular season.

 

[REDEYE]

The biggest problem with not having an 8 team playoff is we have only 4 playoff spots for 5 conferences. So they really aren't accomplishing much more than when they had the old BCS system. Somebody is getting left out of the picture. The danger here is if the teams from the best conferences start getting left out of the playoff because their conference was so competitive throughout the season. It could very well happen to the Pac-12 this year. Maybe even the SEC. To me there is nothing more unfair than a team who has gone through the toughest wars nationally or in their conference, and after all that work throughout a long season they get left out in the end. The question is, do you want the luckiest teams with the most favorable schedules in the playoff or the best teams? I know what I prefer. With an 8 team playoff we would have 5 conference winners with only 3 slots left. And you know there will probably be some non-power 5 conference team or Notre Dame make a run during the season to get in for the 6th slot. That basically leaves just 2 slots at the most left for other Power 5 teams. So there isn't that much room for error during the season. I don't think 8 teams would take anything away from the regular season. You still have to play good enough to make the first 5 slots. And you still won't have any room for error if you don't win your conference. If there were 16+ teams in the playoff you would have an argument. But not 8 teams.

you're right on point here GS... I believe that an 8 team playoff would make the regular season even more important...I have pointed this out several times over the years with numerous games that would have been elevated in importance..

 

[BigdaddyQH]

The 8 team playoff will not be here for years. Try putting your wants behind you for a second and look at what that would entail. First, with CC games, the season already drags into the first week in December. How do you get around the obvious time problems here. When do you play the first round games? If you really think that the Rose and Sugar Bowls will agree to play their games on any day other than 1/1 (except for years when 1/1 falls on a Sunday), you really have no business posting in here. It is simply NOT going to happen. So now, the earliest that the first round could start would be in Mid-December. Next. What do you do with the four teams that are eliminated? Is that their bowl game also, like it is now. If so, you have fill more bowls with weak teams. It is bad enough now. Next, unless you kick the Big 12-2 out of an automatic bid, no power 5 conference will agree to having the CC automatically included because the Big 12-2 does not play a CC qame and would have no point in playing one. The Power 5 is going to deal with the Big 12-2, whether they like it or not. The Big 12-2 is just trying to back in. It will not work.

Shorten the season by a week. Forget it. It has no chance of passing. Do you really think that the majority of schools who'se teams have no chance at all of getting into the playoffs unless a freak happens are going to give up the money by losing a game? It is not going to happen.

Here is another thing to remember. The NCAA could care less about what YOU (meaning all of us) think. YOU are totally unimportant because you do not spend one millionth of the money they make. Why should they care about you? Most of us are going to wager no matter who is playing anyway, so like obedient children, we will just follow along, complaining and losing your money. Where else are you going to go to. We know it. They know it.

 

[REDEYE]

some people here have no clue.. some here can argue about it and put hurdles in front of this possiblity like probably do with the rest of there lives. It will go to 8 teams sometime down the road.. can't believe anyone would worry what would happen to the 4 teams that lost in the qtrs. ! are you serious ? these teams would want to go play in another bowl game after getting eliminated in a playoff ! try again... pretty easy solution for forward thinking people.. qtrs. would be played anywhere from a week to 2 weeks before the semis which would still be played as they are now...5 conference champs and 3 at large bids.. since 4 teams are eliminated after 1 playoff game the only extension of the season would be 2 teams now playing 2 playoff games would now be playing 3... If some think that's to long for 2 teams, I'm sure some adjustment could be made

 

[GoSooners]

Nobody cares what we think, including you BigDaddy. But they do care about the $$$ involved in an expanded playoff format. This is ultimately the bottom line. Even if it's at the expense of some of the other bowls. Half of which will go under anyway. Where'd that Bluebonnet Bowl go? Hmmm. Bowls are a dime a dozen. These playoffs will be first priority in all of this. Right now the only thing keeping it from happening isn't the NCAA, it's the college presidents and the networks. They'll have to all agree on the 8 team format and how it coincides with school finals and the NFL playoffs. But it can all be done and eventually will be done. And I'm betting it will come before this new contract has expired. Contracts are a dime a dozen these days. They are rewritten or negotiated all the time. Just ask head coaches.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Go, when are you going to learn that I know more people inside College Football than you ever will. You know absolutely NOTHING about how the NCAA operates. The only thing you know is what you read. Now do not tell me that EVENTUALLY there will be an 8 team playoff. I can say that EVENTUALLY there will be a 16 team playoff. That is meaningless. Give me a solid date or keep your mouth shut. It is that simple. Stick to talking about the Big 12. Oh wait. You blew that last season too. Oh well. It's a new season.

Red, do I have to remind you just how ignorant you are? Did you or did you not post this: "I have USC + 5 against the Ducks......" Well that is real good, considering that had you gone to Vegas, like you claim to do, you would have gotten USC +6 1/2 against "the Ducks". Well done. But what do you expect. You are the one that was going to prove to the world that you go to Vegas all of the time by showing us all of the tickets you have collected over the years. What did not dawn on you is that the only tickets you would have would be LOSING tickets, which means that you are a major loser. Of course by taking 5 points (and -120 vig. Nice try ignoring that) you have shown us exactly how much you know about gaming. Sorry Charlie. You just do not know when to quit.

I have forgotten more about wagering then you guys know. You do things like forget to post vigs that are not -110. Do you count your vig cost in your bottom line, because I have NEVER seen you two do it. Answer me these simple questions:

1. What does the Tennessee -3 vs Oklahoma line indicate? Do not be obvious. Get down to the bottom line.
2. Why are the Oregon lines so crazy?
3. What could the Nugget be thinking by making Michigan only a 14 point favorite in Harbaugh's home opener against Quack State?
4. When are you two going to post a wager in here?
5. When are you two going to start telling the truth?

The fact of the matter is I am sure you two enjoy college football, and occasionally wager on a few games during the season, but you are NOT gamblers. Most full time amblers are winners. They do not take sides. They could care less about who wins and who loses. The only thing a real Gamblers cares about is placing winning wagers. Nothing else. No Oregon Homers. No Oklahoma Homers. Homers are losers. If you guys were real gamblers, you would know that. This is why I never wager for or against USC, no matter what the line of the game is. You root with your heart and wager with your brain. Questions?

 

[REDEYE]

maybe you need a refresher.. I will bump up Junk's GOY plays from last year.. That should leave you speechless for a few minutes... BTW, I don't live in Vegas.. I can't be in Vegas all the time.. I calculated that the USC +5 would be a decent #.. 4 1/2 or better would be ok for me...and again for the last time..I think its to risky to be playing to many GOY bets for to much money...better value..may that be another lessen for you

 

[GoSooners]

We've already seen BigDaddy's GOY' plays. I guarantee you he DOESN'T have any inside people just by seeing those kinds of results. He's not fooling anybody around here. I was on to his game from the beginning. So was SoonerBS at his site. I was surprised BD lasted as long as he did there. SoonerBS is a psychologist/social worker that sees this kind of douchey anti-social behavior everyday and has a short fuse for putting up with this kind of stuff. So it was only a matter of time before this football board grunt got his walking papers. BigDaddy keep up your BIG talk about me and the Big 12 and I'll continue bringing up your GOY plays and how WRONG you were too. I'm just warning you, you better clean up your act here too, or your soon going to be looking for a new avatar...

 

[REDEYE]

-175 that he doesn't even go to Vegas

+125 he sleeps in his car if he is in Vegas

-750 he has no associates

-300 he shows no wagers

 

[GoSooners]

-175 that he doesn't even go to Vegas

+125 he sleeps in his car if he is in Vegas

-750 he has no associates

-300 he shows no wagers

After last year's GOY bets he probably lives in a van down by the river...

 

[CFBLore]

I don't understand why people want to trade 14-15 weeks of do or die excitement for an 8 team playoff where you have 3 weeks of excitement since it would render the regular season almost as meaningless as the college basketball regular season. Let's say Alabama has a two game lead in the SEC and they know they are in so their Auburn game is absolutely meaningless. Bama rests starters and don't care if they lose since it's about being healthy for the CCG. Plus out of conference games won't matter since it's about winning your conference. 8 team playoff WILL ruin this sport. That's why I fly to 8-10 games a year now before the sport as we know it is dead.

 

[REDEYE]

I don't understand why people want to trade 14-15 weeks of do or die excitement for an 8 team playoff where you have 3 weeks of excitement since it would render the regular season almost as meaningless as the college basketball regular season. Let's say Alabama has a two game lead in the SEC and they know they are in so their Auburn game is absolutely meaningless. Bama rests starters and don't care if they lose since it's about being healthy for the CCG. Plus out of conference games won't matter since it's about winning your conference. 8 team playoff WILL ruin this sport. That's why I fly to 8-10 games a year now before the sport as we know it is dead.

for every example you give I could give you five example scenerios where regular season would be enhanced...

 

[CFBLore]

for every example you give I could give you five example scenerios where regular season would be enhanced...

It's a quantity vs quality debate. In theory 1,000+ regular season college basketball games matter. More games does not equal better. You could still preserve the regular season if you didn't have automatic invites for conference champs.

 

[REDEYE]

pre playoff proponents have never been able to convince me how important the regular season is and it would be ruined with a 4 team or a 8 team playoff...Nobody has been able to convince me that if a team loses early in the season and is essentially eliminated from playing for a championship that there regular still means something .....How is playing out the string angling for a meaningless bowl game more important then a team still fighting for a conference championship and a playoff berth ? If you can't see the difference I can't help you