If there was ever a week where this forum could be useful for everyone, this is it. Pete knows his team...I know mine, so Pete...if you don't mind sharing some insight.
There are a lot of factors to consider in this game, some of which do not even involve the players. Weather (humidity) and crowd (drunk) could be strong factors. OSU does not normally play or practice in extremely humid conditions. Weather.com says low 90's, chance of thunderstorms. I will say it been a hot summer in Corvallis, and god knows, OSU knows a bit about rainy weather....but not hot rainy weather. Oregon State's ATS record the past five years as road dogs is 11-4.
Oregon State also does not regularly play in this sort of atmosphere; although the annual civil war is close, but with 30,000 fewer drunks. The Pac 10 simply does not have this atmosphere (level of enthusiasm). This crowd WILL cause several OSU penalties, confusion, and quite possibly an interception, as OSU QB Derrek Anderson is easily rattled.
That said, let's get to the X's and O's...at least from the OSU side.
OFFENSE:
OSU averaged 33 points per game last year and was ranked in the top 10 in several offensive categories. Lots of question marks after losing all-world running back Steven Jackson, two starting wide-outs and TE, and several offensive linemen.
Returning is 4,000 passing yard QB Derek Anderson for his senior go. This guy has got serious skills. He's also got a real bad habit of throwing interceptions, most of which are his doing from bad decision making. My Corvallis brethren like to think DA a 1st round pick, and he has that kind of potential, but he has to reduce the pics and increase the completion percentage (50%).
The new skill position players are mostly untested, but several have seen considerable playing time. Walk-on receiver Mike Hass returns after a 1,000 yard year, but now that he is the featured receiver, will see lots of double coverage. It will be up to a new receiver to step up, hopefully neither of the returning seniors that have contributed nothing but dropped passes that past few years. Word is that the receiving lot is deep with raw talent, but how that translates into actual games remains to be seen.
Expect little drop off at TE. OSU lost one TE to the NFL last year and will be replacing him with another, Joe Newton.
At running back it is hard to lose a guy like Steven Jackson. OSU's projected starter is Dwight Wright, a diminutive but evasive runner. But there are a couple of young studs pursuing the starting job and while there certainly will be a drop-off, this group will produce.
The key to the offense is the line. Here we have two returning starters, with several experienced back-ups stepping up. There is potential in this group, potential to be good and potential to be real inept, as they were often last year. Going up against a big, fast, experienced D-Line like LSU, the big fellas up front better have their shit together from the get-go if OSU does not want to lose by 30 points.
DEFENSE:
The Beavers are solid on D, returning seven starters, two potential All-Americans, and an extremely strong back seven.
The D line is a huge question mark. It is anchored by returning DT Ben Siegert and DE Bill Swancutt. Both are solid, especially Swancutt, but I expect the linebackers will be making a lot of tackles in this game.
OSU has become a linebacker manufacturing machine the past three years, and this year’s group has lots of potential. Two returning starters will have to step up to fill the hole left by Richard Siegler, but there is not expected to be a lot of drop-off here.
The secondary is the strength of the defense, anchored by one of the best corners in the country, Brandon Browner. There is lots of experience in the back four, with solid back-ups.
SPECIAL TEAMS:
OSU has a new kicker and punter. The punter was a highly touted JC transfer, the kicker is some guy off the street who used to play soccer at a 2A school (joking).
COACHING:
Mike Riley is a great guy. Fantastic guy. Wonderful guy. Horrible coach. No, that is not true, he is not a horrible coach, he just CAN be a horrible coach. As a football fan his demeanor takes some getting used to…they guy just doesn’t get pissed off (as would be expected from a Division I coach).
I would never want Mike Riley to be my coach if it were the 4th quarter of an important game and OSU holding a 3 point lead in a game they should win. However, I love him as the coach in this situation, because no one expects OSU to win at LSU, and here is where Mike Riley excels. He did it when he took over the OSU program in the 90’s, and he’s got a great shot here. But I still wish he was the head coach at Alabama.
CONCLUSION:
I’ll tell you now I already have money on OSU….Mostly because LSU has a lot of new faces and I think they will need a few games to gel. LSU is used to playing PATSY U in non-conference games, but here they face a challenge. OSU will score and the opportunity for a back-door is huge. I’ll give my final prediction after hearing from Pete.
There are a lot of factors to consider in this game, some of which do not even involve the players. Weather (humidity) and crowd (drunk) could be strong factors. OSU does not normally play or practice in extremely humid conditions. Weather.com says low 90's, chance of thunderstorms. I will say it been a hot summer in Corvallis, and god knows, OSU knows a bit about rainy weather....but not hot rainy weather. Oregon State's ATS record the past five years as road dogs is 11-4.
Oregon State also does not regularly play in this sort of atmosphere; although the annual civil war is close, but with 30,000 fewer drunks. The Pac 10 simply does not have this atmosphere (level of enthusiasm). This crowd WILL cause several OSU penalties, confusion, and quite possibly an interception, as OSU QB Derrek Anderson is easily rattled.
That said, let's get to the X's and O's...at least from the OSU side.
OFFENSE:
OSU averaged 33 points per game last year and was ranked in the top 10 in several offensive categories. Lots of question marks after losing all-world running back Steven Jackson, two starting wide-outs and TE, and several offensive linemen.
Returning is 4,000 passing yard QB Derek Anderson for his senior go. This guy has got serious skills. He's also got a real bad habit of throwing interceptions, most of which are his doing from bad decision making. My Corvallis brethren like to think DA a 1st round pick, and he has that kind of potential, but he has to reduce the pics and increase the completion percentage (50%).
The new skill position players are mostly untested, but several have seen considerable playing time. Walk-on receiver Mike Hass returns after a 1,000 yard year, but now that he is the featured receiver, will see lots of double coverage. It will be up to a new receiver to step up, hopefully neither of the returning seniors that have contributed nothing but dropped passes that past few years. Word is that the receiving lot is deep with raw talent, but how that translates into actual games remains to be seen.
Expect little drop off at TE. OSU lost one TE to the NFL last year and will be replacing him with another, Joe Newton.
At running back it is hard to lose a guy like Steven Jackson. OSU's projected starter is Dwight Wright, a diminutive but evasive runner. But there are a couple of young studs pursuing the starting job and while there certainly will be a drop-off, this group will produce.
The key to the offense is the line. Here we have two returning starters, with several experienced back-ups stepping up. There is potential in this group, potential to be good and potential to be real inept, as they were often last year. Going up against a big, fast, experienced D-Line like LSU, the big fellas up front better have their shit together from the get-go if OSU does not want to lose by 30 points.
DEFENSE:
The Beavers are solid on D, returning seven starters, two potential All-Americans, and an extremely strong back seven.
The D line is a huge question mark. It is anchored by returning DT Ben Siegert and DE Bill Swancutt. Both are solid, especially Swancutt, but I expect the linebackers will be making a lot of tackles in this game.
OSU has become a linebacker manufacturing machine the past three years, and this year’s group has lots of potential. Two returning starters will have to step up to fill the hole left by Richard Siegler, but there is not expected to be a lot of drop-off here.
The secondary is the strength of the defense, anchored by one of the best corners in the country, Brandon Browner. There is lots of experience in the back four, with solid back-ups.
SPECIAL TEAMS:
OSU has a new kicker and punter. The punter was a highly touted JC transfer, the kicker is some guy off the street who used to play soccer at a 2A school (joking).
COACHING:
Mike Riley is a great guy. Fantastic guy. Wonderful guy. Horrible coach. No, that is not true, he is not a horrible coach, he just CAN be a horrible coach. As a football fan his demeanor takes some getting used to…they guy just doesn’t get pissed off (as would be expected from a Division I coach).
I would never want Mike Riley to be my coach if it were the 4th quarter of an important game and OSU holding a 3 point lead in a game they should win. However, I love him as the coach in this situation, because no one expects OSU to win at LSU, and here is where Mike Riley excels. He did it when he took over the OSU program in the 90’s, and he’s got a great shot here. But I still wish he was the head coach at Alabama.
CONCLUSION:
I’ll tell you now I already have money on OSU….Mostly because LSU has a lot of new faces and I think they will need a few games to gel. LSU is used to playing PATSY U in non-conference games, but here they face a challenge. OSU will score and the opportunity for a back-door is huge. I’ll give my final prediction after hearing from Pete.
