I was close to betting ULM +6 last game, but held off due to how little I knew about ULM. I thought their size would give Loyola problems on the interior and ULM would be able to win the rebounding battle against an undersized Loyola team.
ULM won the rebounding edge – 34 to 29 and won the offensive rebounding game 18 to 9. Their best player Ongwae went for 12 and 11, but was only 3-19 from the floor (he had scored 26, 27 and 22 in his L3). Despite this, Monday’s game was close throughout, ULM led by 2 at half and stayed within 10 even with Loyola making 12 of 15 shots at one point in the 2H. This was against a ULM team who is 15[SUP]th[/SUP] in the nation in defensive eFG%. This seems more of anomaly than something Loyola will be able to replicate on the road tomorrow night.
Adjustments will be important in this unique 2 out of 3 round. I think ULM has the advantage in that they saw some of Loyola’s tricks – the changing defenses and they can adjust to the tempo increase Moser put in after half. They also know to be ready for Doyle when he comes off the bench. I think most teams, especially in the CIT not familiar with Doyle are a bit surprised how little he plays in the 1H and then explodes in the 2H. It seems to me he has a 30 minute limit due to his ankle and Moser plays him 16+ in the 2H and about 10-14 in the 1H.
ULM just needs to find a way to score the ball a little better, which at home shouldn’t be difficult. ULM has the physical advantage on the glass and interior – something no Loyola adjustment will be able to fix. It will be tough for Loyola to replicate their 51% from the floor and 56% from 2 numbers for Monday (ULM allows 44% from 2 on the year 41[SUP]st[/SUP]in the nation).
Betting ULM -2, up to 2.5
