Louisville at TCU 11/05/03 (early synopsis)

YTD 11-4

I can't wait for a total on this one. Look for a similar type of game as we saw tonight in the CUSA game of the week. This is the conference I have had the most success with this season (most of my plays on the Rx have been CUSA plays) and let's just say TCU has been working hard on one side of the ball (HINT: Last week's 62-55 game with Houston should tell you what side) and don't be surprised to see Louisville's defense have some success stopping TCU. I expect to see a total come out in the low 50's and if that's the case I'll be on the Under. Starting QB Tye Gunn is expected to miss this game and while Junior QB Brandon Hassell is a capable replacement he can be erratic and if the Cards put a little pressure on him he will take sacks. Louisville will see a very heavy dose of Robert Merrill and you can expect the Frogs to run the ball a TON in this game. Both teams have capable special teams so I can see coaches using little hesitation in kicking field goals. TCU will want to win this game with defense and both teams will err on the side of caution. I'll wait for the number to come out but the lean right now is UNDER.

Good luck folks!

 

[lewis]

sportsbet

We caught a tough break tonight on Mia OH 1H. It would have covered easy if the guy hadn't fumbled. Anyway, on to the Lou/TCU game. Besides your under play you might want to look at playing Lou. This is the game that TCU loses and the BCS people will be happy because their games won't be messed up by the smaller conferences.

good luck
lewis

 

[lewis]

I forgot to mention that TCU is 1-7 ATS as a favorite and Louisville is 8-1 SU and 2-0 ATS and SU as a road dog this year.

lewis

 

[Mosi]

The total is 48 at Pinnacle. Good luck.

 

48 Mos?...wow that's a tough one to play. I may lay off it tonight but I expect to see some defense out of both of these teams. Lewis you're right I'd have to lean on Louisville more than TCU right now too but the Houston game makes me wonder if the Frogs will be extra tuned up on D since they were so awful and out of character in their last one.

Lewis you're right about that 1st half last night...we were on the right side but it just didn't go our way. If Roth didn't stare down Nance for 10 minutes in the end zone on the INT and of course the fumble AND the huge delay before a 3rd and 16 BG touchdown pass we'd have been home free. But a loss is a loss. Plenty of games left to get it back.

G/L tonight.

 

[Arbuckle]

was thinking about attending this game. It's no more than a 2 hour drive from here. But by not being a fan, I gotta play this game either way. But which side?

 

[BlackampGold]

Sports - I think you are definitely on the right track here. Total has been bet up to 50 now. Does anyone know what the Stardust opening total was on this as I can't access that from my office? TCU's last game saw 117 points and now we see a total under 50 for the next game? Looks like a pretty good clue to me.

 

It's a tough call Arbuckle. You can look at Louisville beating Kentucky and Syracuse on the road as dogs SU and ATS this season and at TCU's 1-3 ATS home record (the one cover was Vandy). The thing that bugs me with this angle though is that they were double digit favs against all 4 opponents and one of those games vs Navy they were 24.5 pt favs (and Navy turned out to be a lot better than early projections). Army yeah they didn't cover but 27-0 is dominant enough for me. UAB is up and down but they played TCU tough at home. If TCU struggled at home with UAB they will find Louisville to be just as tough I think. The difference is UAB is awful on offense and Louisville is really good.

As for Louisville winning SU as road dogs twice Kentucky and Syracuse aren't as talented on defense as TCU BUT the Kentucky game is obviously the big game for them and they did come out on top. Louisville is coming in a lot healthier than TCU as well but the Frogs have shown they can win despite the injuries.

Both teams schedule strength's are weak (I have TCU at 20.5 and Louisville at 17.1) and both have had some common opponents (Army both won easy, USF beat Louisville in double OT at home and lost vs TCU 13-10) so I don't see any edge there.

First half and second half scoring both have sizable advantages with Louisville having the best numbers in the first half (148-61 edge) vs a 94-61 1st half edge for the Frogs so there is a slight edge to the Cards in the first half. I could see a small play here but nothing to write home about.

IF I play anything tonight it will be the Under because I think both teams will be tense and the team that runs the ball better in this one wins the game IMO. Louisville is 8th in rushing in the nation and TCU is 12th at stopping the run. The Frogs are 15th at running the ball and Louisville's D is 48th at stopping the run so there could be an advantage to TCU running the football. TCU is a ball control team and they will do whatever they can to keep Louisville's offense off the field. They've had a time of possession advantage in every game except Navy and we know how strong Navy is at running the ball (#1 rushing team in the nation). They also won that game against Navy 17-3 well under the total of 55.5 and I think we'll see more of that tonight.

Hopefully my ramblings can help you decide more than I can.

If I play it it won't be for a lot of money that I know for a fact.

Good luck tonight.

sb

[This message was edited by sportsbet on November 05, 2003 at 11:41 AM.]

 

Wow B&G 50 already...time to keep an eye on the boards! 52 would be nice if we can get it. Not a big play though...I don't like it as much as the Miami play last night.

 

[jaypaw]

isnt TCU 2-6 ATS?


Not much better than 1-7 but - just wondering.

 

I have them covering vs Vandy as a 12.5 fav and at Houston as a 6 pt fav. These are before most line moves though.



sb

 

Don Best lists the opening number for the total at 51. Currently seeing 50.5 or 50 everywhere so it looks like it's going down. I'm going to put a SMALL play on it at 50.5 and buy the half (I'm a little freaked out about the half point after the Spurs and the Miami 1st half last night).

PLAY ON: UNDER 51 -120

I may put a little more on it if it goes up but this is not a regular play and if it does move down I'm just going to sit with 51.

sb

 

[BigDaddyNole]

another thing to (always) consider is the weather
60% chance of rain and it's forecasted to rain all day and all night

my numbers are coming out to a total of 48 ---
would love to see this thing go up to 52' before kickoff, but I won't hold my breath

anyone else have a feel for how the weather will affect the total? I've heard two schools of thought ..... some think it helps the offense ... some think it helps the defense --- I know it can't help the kicking game (might help the return game though)

FWIW, last year TCU did not turn the ball over and the Cards did (3 times) --- TCU also DOMINATED the time of possession by a margin of about 2:1 and was able to run the ball 60+ times

 

Nole I expect a LOT of running the football tonight by both sides. I think Louisville is leaps and bounds better on defense than they were a year ago (especially against the run). I think the wet stuff will favor the D's in a running game because it won't take as much to get these guys to the ground and the cutting will be much more difficult. The problem is going to be turnovers and both are good at securing the football (both are + in turnover margin). I like the under even more with the wet stuff on the ground...and like you mentioned 52 would be REALLY nice.

Good luck tonight.

sb

 

[Luckydan]

BIGDADDY, FWIW, I ran the numbers and came out at

Louisville 25 TCU 22.5

I'm like you guys though, 52 sounds a lot better than 50 or 51.

Good Luck to All

Luckydan

 

[BigDaddyNole]

Dan: check your email

 

Pathetic Louisville defense tonight. TCU hasn't done anything in the first half all year except last week at Houston and they get 21 against the Cardinals? For shame!

I'm playing TCU 2nd half +1.5 small as well. Louisville better call 1-800-DEFENSE and see if they can place an order for the 2nd half.

 

[LSUpete]

If you play TCU, you better play the over 27 as well. The ONLY way Louisville covers is to score a LOT of points.