Aloha Gang! Now that was a game last night. We had great plays on both def and off, from both teams. Tonights game shouldn't be any different. This game some are labeling as the show down between two of the nations best running backs in Oregon States Stephen Jackson and New Mexico's Dontrell Williams. Both of whom has easily rushed for over 1,400 yards this year. But to me, the run wont be the reason why one of these teams will lose and one will win tonight. It will be because one team has to many advantages over the other which I just cant ignore.
Before I list these advantages which influenced my selection, the play for tonight is on OREGON ST. -2 for 5 Units. The following reasons is why I feel the Beavers will be victorious after it is all said and done.
Advantages for Oregon St on Offense:
*Oregon St Offense:
- They simply has to many weapons on Off that NM will not be able to completely shutdown.
- 1st weapon- RB Stephen Davis 10th in the nation in rushing.
- 2nd weapon- WR James Newson 7th in the nation in receiving.
- 3rd weapon- QB Derek Anderson 6th in the nation in passing.
- other contributing, weapons WR Mike Hass ranked 7th in the Pac 10 in receiving and TE Tim Euhus who has over 40 receptions on the year.
*Total Offense ranked 13th in the nation overall.
*NM's Defensive response:
-NM Def is ranked 18th in the nation overall. 4th against the run. 77th against the pass.
Result of this matchup:
Oregon St. has a balance attack both running and passing. NM may have an answer to stop RB Jackson, but even if they accomplish this, they will definately find themselves totally outmanned and outclassed against the passing attack of the Beavers. It is here that I see QB Anderson and WR James Newson and company exploiting all day long, resulting in many points to be scored. This potent 7th ranked pass attack matched with NM's average 77th ranked pass def is a total mismatch. There is no one in NM's defensive backfield that can matchup and cover WR Newson one on one, let alone all day long. Still, NM will not have a choice but play Newson in man coverage in order free up a DB to help prevent RB Jackson from tearing it up on the ground. However, if NM decides to instead double cover Newson in an attempt to control him, QB Anderson will symply utilize the Pac 10's 7th ranked WR Mike Hass instead. Hass and Anderson has hooked up this year for 900+ yard on 40+ receptions. Also available is TE Tim Euhus, as well as, RB Jackson, both of whom have over 40+ receptions this year. The bottom line here, is NM doesn't have an answer defensively to effectively shutdown this potent passing attack of the Beavers. As the last team that tried, was the #1 ranked USC Trojans, who although ended up still beating Oregon St, were tourched for over 400+ yard passing. I find it very hard to see NM succeeding, where USC and most of the Pac 10's elite teams has failed.
As far as NM's 4th ranked def in the nation against the run having success in shutting down RB Jackson today, it wont happen. I feel this 4th rank def for one, has not face a strong run attack as that possessed by the Beavers this year, and definately not one with a back of Jackson's caliber. Secondly, I feel that this ranking of #4 against the run is very deceiving based on the weak rush offenses that NM has faced throughout the year. Also, because many of NM's opponents found themselves completely dominanted early in the game, they were forced to go to the passing game, in order to stay close or make a come back. Furthermore, besides Washington St, NM has not faced any other team this year that is of the caliber both running and passing, as that of Oregon St. After todays game though, NM will feel fortunate that they didn't.
*New Mexico's Offense
Ranked 29th in the nation in total Offense. 11th in the run. 81st in the pass.
NM's weapon- RB Dontrell Williams ranks 8th in the nation in rushing. NM's complete success all rides on the shoulders of him being successful in running the ball. This year he didnt disappoint anyone as he simply rushed for over 1400 yards. He is basically the main reason for the success of this team this year. But when he was controlled, so was the entire Off as there is no other real threat Offensively for NM. NM's WR's are average at best, iand really are only used in obvious passing situations. QB Kelly though completed 54% of his passes for over 2000 yards this year, could not seal victories for NM even in times where he had hugh passing days. In fact in two games this year where teams were able to shut down Dontrell, and OB Kelly had to now pass, in order to win, they stil loss. Like I mentioned as Dontrell goes, this NM offense goes with it. Besides Dontrell, NM's offense remains mostly ineffective and one dimensional.
*Oregon St's defensive response:
Oregon St Def is ranked 12th in the nation overall. 45th against the pass. 6th against the run.
Result of this matchup:
-Having the number 6th defense against the run is a big plus and asset to have in stopping or at least slowing down RB Williams. Also, having a defensive backfield which is experienced and able to handle man coverages, will allow Oregon St's to stack the line with 7 or 8 in the box to attack the run game of NM and try to shut it down, forcing NM to pass the ball, which is something they dont really want to do. When this happens, the Oregon St def backfield should be able to prevent big plays from the WR's of NM. This DB's squad of the Beavers picked off 17 passes on the year, and should be able to get a beat on Kelly on obvious passing downs. Hopefully this leads to turnovers and thus gets that high powered Oregon St attack back on the field. This lack of having a balance attack has been successful for NM this year as their record and bowl appearance shows, but against this aggressive def it may not hold true. After facing the caliber of receivers that the Pac 10 is loaded with, they should be more than addequat in shutting down NM's average passing game. When this happens, as I see it will, NM will not have a prayer at all winning this game. And again it will show that the MWC league has not made any gains to match the level of play of that of the Pac 10.
In conclusion, the Oregon St Beavers clearly possess to many talented players at the skilled positions for this average NM defensive squad to be able to handle today. That poor defense against the pass and not the run is where I feel the game will be decided on. NM just doesnt have the players on def to matchup with Oregon St.off. And they dont have the personal beside Williams on off to challenge the Oregon St. def. Plus, without the ability to rely on a balanced attack you expose your weakness and this allows teams like Oregon St to feed off of and totally dominate from start to finish. And this is what I see Oregon St being able to do effectively today. Oregon St. should win by double digit pts. Aloha and Good Luck , Co-Captain
This may also be a factor that adds to the advantages enjoyed by Oregon St over NM. The last time NM played a game was over a month ago. Oregon St's last game was alittle over two weeks ago. NM has been inactive two weeks longer than Oregon St has, and this long lay off may cause NM to be more rusty because of it.
[This message was edited by Co-Captain on December 24, 2003 at 04:00 PM.]
Before I list these advantages which influenced my selection, the play for tonight is on OREGON ST. -2 for 5 Units. The following reasons is why I feel the Beavers will be victorious after it is all said and done.
Advantages for Oregon St on Offense:
*Oregon St Offense:
- They simply has to many weapons on Off that NM will not be able to completely shutdown.
- 1st weapon- RB Stephen Davis 10th in the nation in rushing.
- 2nd weapon- WR James Newson 7th in the nation in receiving.
- 3rd weapon- QB Derek Anderson 6th in the nation in passing.
- other contributing, weapons WR Mike Hass ranked 7th in the Pac 10 in receiving and TE Tim Euhus who has over 40 receptions on the year.
*Total Offense ranked 13th in the nation overall.
*NM's Defensive response:
-NM Def is ranked 18th in the nation overall. 4th against the run. 77th against the pass.
Result of this matchup:
Oregon St. has a balance attack both running and passing. NM may have an answer to stop RB Jackson, but even if they accomplish this, they will definately find themselves totally outmanned and outclassed against the passing attack of the Beavers. It is here that I see QB Anderson and WR James Newson and company exploiting all day long, resulting in many points to be scored. This potent 7th ranked pass attack matched with NM's average 77th ranked pass def is a total mismatch. There is no one in NM's defensive backfield that can matchup and cover WR Newson one on one, let alone all day long. Still, NM will not have a choice but play Newson in man coverage in order free up a DB to help prevent RB Jackson from tearing it up on the ground. However, if NM decides to instead double cover Newson in an attempt to control him, QB Anderson will symply utilize the Pac 10's 7th ranked WR Mike Hass instead. Hass and Anderson has hooked up this year for 900+ yard on 40+ receptions. Also available is TE Tim Euhus, as well as, RB Jackson, both of whom have over 40+ receptions this year. The bottom line here, is NM doesn't have an answer defensively to effectively shutdown this potent passing attack of the Beavers. As the last team that tried, was the #1 ranked USC Trojans, who although ended up still beating Oregon St, were tourched for over 400+ yard passing. I find it very hard to see NM succeeding, where USC and most of the Pac 10's elite teams has failed.
As far as NM's 4th ranked def in the nation against the run having success in shutting down RB Jackson today, it wont happen. I feel this 4th rank def for one, has not face a strong run attack as that possessed by the Beavers this year, and definately not one with a back of Jackson's caliber. Secondly, I feel that this ranking of #4 against the run is very deceiving based on the weak rush offenses that NM has faced throughout the year. Also, because many of NM's opponents found themselves completely dominanted early in the game, they were forced to go to the passing game, in order to stay close or make a come back. Furthermore, besides Washington St, NM has not faced any other team this year that is of the caliber both running and passing, as that of Oregon St. After todays game though, NM will feel fortunate that they didn't.
*New Mexico's Offense
Ranked 29th in the nation in total Offense. 11th in the run. 81st in the pass.
NM's weapon- RB Dontrell Williams ranks 8th in the nation in rushing. NM's complete success all rides on the shoulders of him being successful in running the ball. This year he didnt disappoint anyone as he simply rushed for over 1400 yards. He is basically the main reason for the success of this team this year. But when he was controlled, so was the entire Off as there is no other real threat Offensively for NM. NM's WR's are average at best, iand really are only used in obvious passing situations. QB Kelly though completed 54% of his passes for over 2000 yards this year, could not seal victories for NM even in times where he had hugh passing days. In fact in two games this year where teams were able to shut down Dontrell, and OB Kelly had to now pass, in order to win, they stil loss. Like I mentioned as Dontrell goes, this NM offense goes with it. Besides Dontrell, NM's offense remains mostly ineffective and one dimensional.
*Oregon St's defensive response:
Oregon St Def is ranked 12th in the nation overall. 45th against the pass. 6th against the run.
Result of this matchup:
-Having the number 6th defense against the run is a big plus and asset to have in stopping or at least slowing down RB Williams. Also, having a defensive backfield which is experienced and able to handle man coverages, will allow Oregon St's to stack the line with 7 or 8 in the box to attack the run game of NM and try to shut it down, forcing NM to pass the ball, which is something they dont really want to do. When this happens, the Oregon St def backfield should be able to prevent big plays from the WR's of NM. This DB's squad of the Beavers picked off 17 passes on the year, and should be able to get a beat on Kelly on obvious passing downs. Hopefully this leads to turnovers and thus gets that high powered Oregon St attack back on the field. This lack of having a balance attack has been successful for NM this year as their record and bowl appearance shows, but against this aggressive def it may not hold true. After facing the caliber of receivers that the Pac 10 is loaded with, they should be more than addequat in shutting down NM's average passing game. When this happens, as I see it will, NM will not have a prayer at all winning this game. And again it will show that the MWC league has not made any gains to match the level of play of that of the Pac 10.
In conclusion, the Oregon St Beavers clearly possess to many talented players at the skilled positions for this average NM defensive squad to be able to handle today. That poor defense against the pass and not the run is where I feel the game will be decided on. NM just doesnt have the players on def to matchup with Oregon St.off. And they dont have the personal beside Williams on off to challenge the Oregon St. def. Plus, without the ability to rely on a balanced attack you expose your weakness and this allows teams like Oregon St to feed off of and totally dominate from start to finish. And this is what I see Oregon St being able to do effectively today. Oregon St. should win by double digit pts. Aloha and Good Luck , Co-Captain
This may also be a factor that adds to the advantages enjoyed by Oregon St over NM. The last time NM played a game was over a month ago. Oregon St's last game was alittle over two weeks ago. NM has been inactive two weeks longer than Oregon St has, and this long lay off may cause NM to be more rusty because of it.
[This message was edited by Co-Captain on December 24, 2003 at 04:00 PM.]
