I teased LSU down to -12, they covered by 5.5 even without without the tease. I'm posting ideas of games that make sense to me. By teasing games I can get most outcomes within 2 standard deviations or 95% probability of winning. Vegas is shooting for less then one standard deviation with the spreads they put out, a 50-50.
Picking the other side of the tease is up to the bettor. The teases I gave were 7-3 in week 8. The losers were games that came in 3 standard deviations or more. ie. less then 99% probable.
In games like Duke/UVA where Duke came into the game as a 4 point dog, which surprised me. Vegas was correct Duke lost, but by a lot more then -4. The score ended up outside 3 Standard deviations, a 99% improbability. Miami losing to GT, OSU killing NW, and Duke getting crushed in Cville.
My history of picking 3 games a week, outside 3 SD's is 3 SDs in itself. Most weeks it's one game, no games or at most 2 games. It's a bell curve, teasing games creates less skew.
Picking the other side of the tease is up to the bettor. The teases I gave were 7-3 in week 8. The losers were games that came in 3 standard deviations or more. ie. less then 99% probable.
In games like Duke/UVA where Duke came into the game as a 4 point dog, which surprised me. Vegas was correct Duke lost, but by a lot more then -4. The score ended up outside 3 Standard deviations, a 99% improbability. Miami losing to GT, OSU killing NW, and Duke getting crushed in Cville.
My history of picking 3 games a week, outside 3 SD's is 3 SDs in itself. Most weeks it's one game, no games or at most 2 games. It's a bell curve, teasing games creates less skew.
