Dan Tom
Jon Jones (23-1 MMA, 17-1 UFC)
Staple info:
Height: 6’4″ Age: 31 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 84″
Last fight: Knockout win over Alexander Gustafsson (Dec. 29, 2018)
Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico)
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC light-heavyweight champion
+ JUCO national wrestling title
+ 10 KO victories
+ 6 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ Creative and dynamic striker
^ Preternatural instincts and improv
+ Effectively dictates range
^ Teep kicks, oblique kicks, hand posts
+ Deceptively effective inside clinch
^ Superb hand-fighting /grip disruption
+ Multiple takedown tools
+ Devastating ground striker
+ Always looks to secure rounds
Anthony Smith (30-13 MMA, 7-3 UFC)
Staple info:
Height: 6’4″ Age: 30 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 76″
Last fight: Submission win over Volkan Oezdemir(Oct. 27, 2018)
Camp: Factory-X Muay Thai (Nebraska/Colorado)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 17 KO victories
+ 11 submission wins
+ 17 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Well-rounded muay Thai arsenal
^ Effective at multiple ranges
+ Excellent clinch striker
^ Devastating knees and elbows
+ Underrated grappling ability
^ Uses frame/transitions well
+/-Only seen scorecards 3 times in 44 fights
Point of interest: Eight limbs in action ...
The main event in Las Vegas features a light heavyweight title fight between two fighters who love to exercise all eight of the proverbial striking limbs.
An experienced fighter for being just 30, Anthony Smith embraces more of a traditional muay Thai arsenal, bringing a well-rounded skillset of violence to the table. Carrying a menacing feel to the way in which he marches down his opposition, Smith is capable of making pressure his friend, using it to fuel his forward assaults.
Despite his long reach and frame, the Nebraska native does a deceptively good job at changing his ranges on strikes mid-stroke or combination, following fleeing opponents when appropriate. Favoring to fight on the inside, Smith keeps an array of unforgiving elbows and knees at the ready, especially when going into or off of clinch breaks.
The 30-year-old fighter from the midwest has also shown an improved jab in recent outings, using it to either set up or disrupt offense. That said, defense has not typically been Smith’s strong suit, and he will most certainly need to mind everything from his striking patterns to retractions when stepping up to the plate against Jon Jones.
Though blessed with some solid athletic genetics, it is Jones’ almost-unflinching computing of striking exchanges that has impressed me most, particularly in recent years.
Seldom will you see the champion throw the same sequence of strikes within the same minute or even round – unless, that is, he is trying to set you up or walk you into something. And being one of the most tride and true stance switchers in MMA, Jones can exercises a plethora of options available to him to help further these agendas.
Whether he his hiding behind hand posts or disrupting his opponent’s approach with oblique kicks and other leg assaults, Jones is clearly not shy when it comes to utilizing his length. However, I would also argue that Jones has proven that he is not reliant on it either.
Not only does Jones have the aforementioned-abilities to navigate exchanges, but he has also seemingly made leaps in his boxing ability, helping shore up a range that most of his opponents risk life and limb to maintain. Even against the breakneck pressure that Daniel Cormier brought to their second meeting, Jones was able to pivot or shift his way into counter punches like never before in his career.
That said, Jones has also experienced his hardest shots when shifting or working within this range, which is what will make these stanzas the most exciting between him and Smith on paper.
Point of interest: Grappling warfare ...
Considering how chaotic striking exchanges could get standing, I would not at all be surprised to see these two long-limbed fighters tie up early and often.
Smith, who generally is a menace to deal with in the clinch (and has the highlight reel to prove it), possesses solid go-to knees and elbows that he frames off for like second nature. However, the midwest vet can sometimes go to the well with these techniques, which is something he cannot afford to do against someone who, in my mind, is the greatest clinch fighter this sport has seen thus far.
Even against Cormier, a world-class wrestler and all-time MMA clinch artist in his own right, Jones was able to shut down his offense in close by utilizing creative wrist controls to disrupt the former light heavyweight champion’s game and open up his own.
Using his long frame to multitask inside the clinch, Jones can implement wrenching over-hooks (a la the ones that famously injured Glover Teixeira’s shoulder), all while using his free-hand to either strike or help secure wrist-feeds to his over-hooking hand. This intricate tie-up also allows Jones the leverage to come over the top with elbows regardless of whether or not he is still holding onto wrists.
For those who have not wrestled or grappled in some form, wrist control is the unsung gatekeeper of advancing position, as a solid hand-fighter can befuddle even the best of grapplers. With that in mind, I will be curious to the approach of Smith, who – not only is an underrated grappler – but one shows that he does understand the importance of grip awareness, especially on the floor.
Although Smith only recently received his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, he has, for better or worse, long-operated with the comfort of one for quite some time. Utilizing intelligent wrist controls, Smith will elevate his hips while he threatens with both submissions and sweeps, whether he’s working from a full or half-guard.
If Smith ends up on top, then he, too, could change the landscape of this matchup. But if he doesn’t, then he will need to exercise more urgency from the bottom than he has in past appearances. Jones, who reminded the masses his last time out, has an incredibly unforgiving top game that we’ve seen dismantle strong and experienced grapplers with unforgiving rides and ground strikes.
Between the popularity of Jones to the stylistic matchup, I somewhat suspected inflated lines to run rampant here. Not only does Jones carry the on-paper advantages in almost every department, but Smith seems to be lacking a couple of key factors that have arguably proved to be useful against the champion: consistent pressure and the ability to counter off of kicks.
In both victory and defeat, it’s not been uncommon to see Jones gingerly walk off the field of battle, as his kick-heavy approach to dissuade pressure seems to come with an obvious cost. And when fighters like Cormier and Gustafsson (or even Lyoto Machida back at UFC 140) have aggressively countered off of Jones’ kicking inclinations, they were able to find some of the best successes we’ve seen scored on the champion to date.
The potential problem for Smith, however, is that one of his long-criticisms has been his ability to check and defend kicks, much less counter them with consistency. Nevertheless, even though Smith may not be your typical counter striker or pressure fighter, he is not afraid to use strikes to crash distance with an oncoming opponent – which could see some light in this fight given the comparable ranges of each fighter.
Jones proudly spoke of his boxing improvements and ability to go lefty after his last win, but it was also shifting to southpaw within that range that got his mouthpiece knocked out by a Cormier right-hand. Should Smith decide to plant and crash distance at the right time (akin to the shot that he used to set up Shogun Rua’s demise in Germany), then the unlikely dog may very well end up having his day.
However, no matter of much of a fan I may be of Smith (as well as the underrated rise of his gym Factory-X led by the unheralded Marc Montoya), I have a hard time siding with the challenger’s limited paths on paper, at least in regards to facing arguably the best pound-for-pound talent of our era. For that reason, I can’t help but side with Jones here (even if my heart will be elsewhere on fight night).
Whether it be in the clinch or on the floor, Jones is akin to one of those pictures of a giant squid consuming a ship – simultaneously denying his opposition space while taking them into deeper and deeper of waters. I’m picking the champion to retain his title by getting it done on the floor by the second round, after a few breath-taking moments from both men, of course.
Prediction: Jones inside the distance