Christian Pina
Francis Ngannou (+130) Vs. Cain Valesquez (-160)
One of my golden rules in sports betting of any kind really, is to never bet on the unknowns. Whether it be a backup never before seen quarterback, and up and coming pitching prospect, or in this case, which version of Francis Ngannou we will see. There’s more than just that unknown as well as we have no idea what version of Cain Valesquez we will be treated to at this juncture of time. The tail of Francis Ngannou is that of a cautionary one, in that he is a breathing example of what happens to a UFC fighter when too much is given too soon. Ngannou was the best heavyweight prospect the sport had possibly ever seen and was leaving bodies in his wake during his clime to the heavyweight title chance. Fast forward to that title fight and we saw the most dominant title performance pillar to post I’ve ever seen, it just wasn’t for Ngannou. The issue here is it wasn’t just an off night, Stipe Miocic provided the rest of the UFC with the blueprint to beat Ngannou, and it’s wrestling. Ngannou then followed that performance up with an even worse one, where he was literally so petrified of the thought of a takedown, he was unable to throw a punch in a huge black eye moment for The UFC. Ngannou rebounded with a 45 second KO victory of Curtis Blaydes, and if he ever wants to be mentioned in the title picture again, this is now the biggest fight of his career. I can’t trust him with my money, but I’m rooting for the guy, after all, I have a thing about buying stock at all time lows.
The Pick: Francis Ngannou (+130)
James Vick (-115) Vs. Paul Felder (-115)
I understand where the line is where it is in this fight, I just don’t really agree with it. On the surface, these two fighters are so similar stylistically, the pick line makes sense, but there’s one glaring advantage for James Vick, and that’s fight IQ. Fight IQ to me is first and foremost the number one thing I put the most stock in, and if you don’t have it, I refuse to bet on said fighter. That is something of the case of Paul Felder, who seems to crumble when lights are the brightest. Yes, you can make the argument Vick just crumbled in his last fight in which he was humbled by Justin Gaethje, but it was must win for Gaethje and things happen inside an octagon. This is likely to be a violent stand up striking attack with a lot of dirty boxing up against the cage mixed in, which brings me to the next point, Vick has a huge size advantage, which he should be able to use in this type of fire fight. That, and he’s one of the best mental fighters in the game, and I’ll go with James Vick.
The Pick: James Vick (-115)
Cortney Casey (+265) Vs. Cynthia Calvillo (-320)
Both women are attempting to break into the title picture in this fight as they jockey for position. Stylistically this line is pretty fair, as Calvillo is coming off her best performance in The UFC to date via a first round submission victory, and well, we know what to expect from Courtney Casey. She’s a huge strawweight with good wrestling and decent punching power, she is just incredibly timid and something seems off more mentally then physically, which in keeping with the theme of this preview, I can’t trust mentally weak fighters, and until Casey gets more aggressive, I can’t pick her. Casey is certainly an example of a fighter with all the tools, she just has to put them together, and she could surprise in the division if she’s able to turn the corner, I just can’t pick her until I see her do it first.
The Pick: Cynthia Calvillo (-320)
Alex Caceres (+270) Vs. Kron Gracie (-330)
This is another situation in where I understand why the line is where it is, but I don’t really agree with it, strictly out of principal. Gracie has the famous last name of Jujitsu royalty you’ve probably noticed if you’re reading this article, and he’s a submission killer. That being said, he’s vastly unproven and raw in every other area of his game, fighting primarily out of Japan as of late against frankly awful competition. The UFC is setting up Gracie to win here in exciting style, to be blunt, because they’re giving him the UFC fighter with the biggest name that stylistically is most likely to get tapped out. Alex Caceres is an above average to average UFC fighter, always hovering around the .500 mark, but his weakness has always been the submission defense game. Enter Gracie, who may already do that better than anyone in the division, and you can see why it’s a -330 betting line. I wouldn’t make a habit out of parlaying guys like this so raw and new, but its clear what The UFC is trying to do here.
The Pick: Kron Gracie (-330)
Bryan Barberena (+330) Vs. Vincente Luque (-400)
Paths to victory is the name of the game, and frankly, Luque just has more. Bryan Barberena, for all his faults, finds ways to win as a big underdog in The UFC, which can never be over stated, and for that, he’s on my do not bet against list. That being said, as is the case in every Barberena fight, his path is one dimensional, it’s the knockout. This fight can be a fire fight back and forth, but Luque would be wise to stay away from Barberena’s hands and look to point fight his way to a victory because Barberena has never shown that capability.
The Pick: Vincente Luque (-400)
Andre Fili (+120) Vs. Myles Jury (-150)
This fight will most likely be a point fight type of victory for either fighter and whoever is able to dictate pace or has the cleaner striking and exchanges will most likely take this fight. The thing is, truthfully these fighters are almost mirror images of each other stylistically and I’m not sure which one of those are going to be able to do so. It’s very likely going to be a split decision or a close 29-28 type of decision for either fighter, and even though odds aren’t released at this time of this writing, I’m playing it safe and going Over 2.5 Rounds as they should neutralize each other.
The Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds
Aljamain Sterling (+120) Vs. Jimmie Rivera (-150)
Sterling was always one of those guys who had all the tools and just wasn’t able to put it together, until now. He’s certainly had and up and down career inside the UFC’s octagon, but he’s certainly on the “up” side of that as things stand now, and I actually look for him to continue his run. Length is everything in this fight and no one usually has more of it than Sterling. Rivera certainly has the striking advantage, but if Sterling can get this fight to the mat, he should be able to use that elite wrestling and submission game.
The Pick: Aljamain Sterling (+120)
Benito Lopez (+170) Vs. Manny Bermudez (-200)
This fight is all about what happens when things don’t go your way, specifically in the case of Manny Bermudez. Bermudez has been dubbed the “Bermudez Triangle” long before coming to The UFC, and has made it come to fruition in the UFC by tapping out both opponents with said Bermudez triangle choke. My worry for him in this fight is, this is the most well rounded fighter he has faced to date, and I don’t think Bermudez is as far along with the rest of his game than people think. If Bermudez can’t get the submission, every other area in this fight I give the edge to Benito Lopez.
The Pick: Benito Lopez (+170)
Ashlee Evans Smith (+150) Vs. Andrea Lee (-180)
Short notice replacement Andrea Lee takes the place of Lauren Murphy on two months notice in this matchup. Lee has struggled against takedown artists and Evans Smith does have the wrestling advantage on paper, but Lee’s kickboxing is far more effective than Evans Smith and should coast to a decision here.
The Pick: Andrea Lee (-180)
Nik Lentz (+145) Vs. Scott Holtzman (-175)
Holtzman is certainly evolving as a fighter which is exactly what you want to see. He makes mistakes in one fight but fixes them for the next. He struggled badly against Josh Emmett yet turned those same tricks against Alan Patrick. Holtzman is changing and evolving into a better fighter while Nik Lentz, always capable, is something of a predictable fighter at this stage. Lentz could turn this into a fire fight or go for his famous submission game, but I just think Holtzman is going to be even better than the last time we saw him, which doesn’t bold well for Lentz being able to get him to the ground. I’d like this alot better if Holtzman was an underdog though, the line is banking on him being even better than last time out as well.
The Pick: Scott Holtzman (-175)
Jodie Esquibel (+115) Vs. Jessica Penne (-145)
Esquibel was thought to have turned a corner in her MMA career very recently and frankly, she let a lot of people down. Penne, on the other hand, has also somewhat been a bit disappointing, although her career looked to be heading the way of championship gold. Takedown defense is the key here, as Esquibel is a huge question mark while Penne’s grappling is her biggest strength. Penne is certainly getting up their in age as well, but I just can’t trust Jodie Esquibel until I see it.
The Pick: Jessica Penne (-145)
Renan Barao (+160) Vs. Luke Sanders (-190)
Remember that fight IQ thing I talked about with Paul Felder? Luke Sanders wishes he had half the fight IQ of Paul Felder. To make this simple, Luke Sanders is the most mentally weak fighter on The UFC’s roster and a firm do not bet on, but on the other hand, Renan Barao is making his case for the most washed up fighter in The UFC. A real Sophie’s choice type of fight here, it screams stay away. That being said, I can’t ever chose Luke Sanders, so I’ll go with Renan Barao.
The Pick: Renan Barao (+160)
Emily Whitmire (-105) Vs. Aleksandra Albu (-125)
The certain jerker of the evening, this one is really a coin flip in my eyes, and don’t see how anyone can find much of a betting angle. Whitmire looks over matched at times, and if Albu comes in with the right game plan, which would be to dictate the pace by walking her down most of the night via strikes, that’s probably the most likely of outcomes. Whitmire can certainly stuff takedowns as we saw last time out, and these girls are just so close in skill level.
The Pick: Aleksandra Albu (-125)