I'm usually great fade material, but lately have been doing much better w/ some deeper research and using the tactic of fading my initial pick (or at least doing enough research to convince myself against my original pick).
I will post my picks and reasoning to how I got to said pick.
San Francisco +8: I loved Bears -6.5 all week, but woke up to see my local still offering 49ers @ +8 where as most of the major books have it @ -6.5 this morning. I can easily see a low scoring game similar to Bears games the last couple weeks in their current winning streak. Sure they have been winning but they haven't been wrecking anyone. 49ers have a ton of injuries and have been dubbed as the worst team in the league since a lot of their weapons were either deemed obsolete (Kaep) or injured/traded (bush, Hyde, Davis, etc.) they haven't actually been getting blown out either. They've been playing it close. For that reason I think 8 points is just too much. I can easily see a 20-13 type game here. So I will go w/ 49ers giving the points and hope for a low scoring affair here.
Bengals First Half -6.5: Interstate division rivals. Funny things happen in these games. For that reason I wasn't confident in a Bengals full game bet @ the -10.5 my local has this AM. I think they come out and set the tone and go up early but the Browns have routinely fucked me w/ back door covers the last 4-5 years so I am going w/ what I think is a safe first half bet here.
Houston +3.5: I just like Houston here. I think they are underrated while the Bills are a bit overrated. Too much weight being given to the home field advantage in Buffalo w/ the cold, etc. Truth of the matter is Bills have not been that great against the spread @ home in the late months of the season. I think Watt and Houston's D does a good job of containing Tyrod and the Bills threats and the Houston running game which has shown signs of life along w/ Hoyer/Hopkins combo should keep it within 3 here. I can easily see a FG @ the end of the game here for the win. For that reason I'll take Houston @ +3.5
Tampa Bay +1: People are going to keep waiting for Atlanta to show up and I think Vegas is taking clear advantage of that. I initially read the line as Vegas begging for TB money but I now think I see it for what it is which is actually the opposite. TB trending upwards in all categories while ATL is trending downward. Most of the justification I've heard for picking them is that they need this game, they wont get swept by the Bucs (I remember similar sentiment in that GB/Det game earlier in the week not that its really a good comparison seeing how that game ended it could have gone either way - I don;t think this game is as close. TB is a new and improved ATL (younger, stronger, faster). I think they just have more weapons and are utilizing them better and it shows today in TB.
I will post my picks and reasoning to how I got to said pick.
San Francisco +8: I loved Bears -6.5 all week, but woke up to see my local still offering 49ers @ +8 where as most of the major books have it @ -6.5 this morning. I can easily see a low scoring game similar to Bears games the last couple weeks in their current winning streak. Sure they have been winning but they haven't been wrecking anyone. 49ers have a ton of injuries and have been dubbed as the worst team in the league since a lot of their weapons were either deemed obsolete (Kaep) or injured/traded (bush, Hyde, Davis, etc.) they haven't actually been getting blown out either. They've been playing it close. For that reason I think 8 points is just too much. I can easily see a 20-13 type game here. So I will go w/ 49ers giving the points and hope for a low scoring affair here.
Bengals First Half -6.5: Interstate division rivals. Funny things happen in these games. For that reason I wasn't confident in a Bengals full game bet @ the -10.5 my local has this AM. I think they come out and set the tone and go up early but the Browns have routinely fucked me w/ back door covers the last 4-5 years so I am going w/ what I think is a safe first half bet here.
Houston +3.5: I just like Houston here. I think they are underrated while the Bills are a bit overrated. Too much weight being given to the home field advantage in Buffalo w/ the cold, etc. Truth of the matter is Bills have not been that great against the spread @ home in the late months of the season. I think Watt and Houston's D does a good job of containing Tyrod and the Bills threats and the Houston running game which has shown signs of life along w/ Hoyer/Hopkins combo should keep it within 3 here. I can easily see a FG @ the end of the game here for the win. For that reason I'll take Houston @ +3.5
Tampa Bay +1: People are going to keep waiting for Atlanta to show up and I think Vegas is taking clear advantage of that. I initially read the line as Vegas begging for TB money but I now think I see it for what it is which is actually the opposite. TB trending upwards in all categories while ATL is trending downward. Most of the justification I've heard for picking them is that they need this game, they wont get swept by the Bucs (I remember similar sentiment in that GB/Det game earlier in the week not that its really a good comparison seeing how that game ended it could have gone either way - I don;t think this game is as close. TB is a new and improved ATL (younger, stronger, faster). I think they just have more weapons and are utilizing them better and it shows today in TB.
