LOCK SUPERBOWL BET OF THE DECADE...

[Thrillseeker]

NE may cover, but playing inflated fav lines that are off by 3 pts or so, will get you absolutely slaughtered in the long run...

This line would be around -7 if the game were in foxboro, and it should be around -4 on a neutral field...there's no way the line would be anywhere close to -10 if the game were in foxboro...NE may cover, but the value lies on the Car side...

Good Luck to all!

 

[Dante]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by TTinCO:
Trying to get yourself a 7 middle there, Kennypoo?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

 

[TTinCO]

Come on Dante.....I need to throw him some heat.

I've been way too good, way too long.

 

[Rogthedodger]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Mr. Smith:
let me put it very plain for the reading impaired...

I am waiting to bet IN CASE it does go to 7.5 by itself. I dont believe it ever will, so the buy will be neccessary.

My advice is to bet on Carolina +7.5 and to wait as long as possible to see if getting +7.5 is possible. If +7 is the best around, then buy the 1/2 point. Personally, I'll wait until 5 minutes before gametime to bet, unless the +7 gets so rare that I'm worried I'll end up +6.5 unless I bet pronto.

that is all I have to say about that.this really isn't complicated stuff.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

No impairment here. No mention by you to "wait as long as possible to see if getting +7.5". Your advice was to NOW buy to 7.5, was just calling you out on your BS....get used to it. As for your amateur comment....LOL

 

[DavidMatthews]

I think the line on this game has as much chance of going to 6.0 as it does to 7.5... I don't think either is likely though.

I expect Pinnacle to be 6.5 and moving the money (very slightly) all the way to kickoff. I expect Mirage to be 7 flat all the way to kickoff.

(This does not consider any big injury, or Tom Brady getting caught raping a teenager or anything like that.)

This isn't to say I agree or disagree with the Shrink. I think part of the reason it won't move much, is because there is already too much money at stake. Places could not afford to move the line a lot. 6 is a decent number, and 7 and 7.5 are HUGE numbers.

I liked Carolina at first, but seeing that the world likes Carolina makes me lean more and more towards the Pats. Every fat drunk I meet says, "It's going to be a low scoring game. I don't think Carolina will win, but they'll cover the spread." I like to fade the fat drunks...

David

 

[blueedwards]

i'm with ya dave...pats and the over.

 

[DavidMatthews]

If the Pats win by exactly 7, which in pure statistical terms (based on the line) has about a 1 in 18 chance of happening, the books will be very, very sad.

 

[dimeplayersonly]

rams/titans...............comes to mind


DAVE MATTHEWS..........yes books will be sad if game falls 7........

but the ones that floated 6' and moved to 7 may be busted........(being long at 6' will not help matters)

i have preached this over and over.........when it comes to the superbowl.....you better make damn sure you get the action booked at the proper number ESCPECIALLY WHEN ITS A KEY NUMBER..........

DEAL 6' IF YOU WANT TO........WHEN YOU GET LONG AT 6' AND MOVE TO 7........YOU BETTER HAVE SOME -7 ORDERS IN FRONT OF YOU.........AND VICE VERSA.......imo most vegas shops have the right idea.......open and close at 7

 

[Dante]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by TTinCO:
Come on Dante.....I need to throw him some heat.

I've been way too good, way too long.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

 

[Banned4Life]

The LOCK of this super bowl is that it will go into OVERTIME.

 

[drunkguy]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by dimeplayersonly:
imo most vegas shops have the right idea.......open and close at 7<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

That's the best move. Worst case scenario you hit the number and push all sides. Sucks you didn't make any money with the biggest game of the year, but a lot better than getting sided on the 7 and getting your ass handed to you...

 

[PatPatriot]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Pats not at home. cant hold leads. cant run. Panthers have played against far better WRs these playoffs.. when you gaurantee a cover, i assume you think pats are gonna be up 15 or more near the end of the game and wont get back doored? gotta go against you on this one. but I am a square so, you should be thrilled with this. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Can't hold leads???...They are 27-0 going into the 4th qtr. with a lead (best in NFL).
They are like 15-1 when leading at halftime.
Marvin harrison is arguably the best WR in the game and they beat him twice...they also beat 2 MVP QB's in the playoffs and held them to 14 points each.....Jesus when are you guys going to stop drinking the ESPN, and NFL Today hero worship Kool aid?...They will be 17-2 and will concluded one of the best 5 seasons in NFL History....By the way, they have won their games by an average of 6.9 points...the same margin of victory as the Colts.....Pats will when by 10 or more but it won't be that close.

 

[exilarch]

Patriot, your homerism will hurt you in this game.

 

[dogball]

IS this the Pan AM bailout ?
LOL
JUST KIDDING GUYS

Great to see Shrink put his opinon and neck on the line , Best of Luck Ken. I NEVER THOUGHT i would see the day where shrink uses the LOCK word

Most books seem to think that 7 is a solid line and have little opinion on the game so its great to see shrink with a strong one flying in the face of a toss up by most experts.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

I was pretty sure he had Carolina, now I know. Thanks.

 

[EYO'sChadman]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>(This does not consider any big injury, or Tom Brady getting caught raping a teenager or anything like that.)<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Odds that Brady's rape victim is:
Female: -1.10
Male: -1.10

Odds that Chimura is in the hot tub with them:
Yes: -1.10
No: -1.10

Sorry, my backers are only allowing me to offer a dime line on these hot props...

 

[TIGER]

 

[Banned4Life]

As I recall the last pick Shrink posted here was the Dolphins over the Eagles on MNF last month.

 

[RPM]

who won that game banned?

 

[newbie666]

---> Trust me, afterall, I am a Doctor!! <-----

Bible says: "Damm the man who trust in another man"