When I first started looking at the live in-play I could believe the odds on the dog.
Using 100 u br with 10k for br in these examples
Let's say I bet Clev. pregame -150 to win 100 I am risking 1.5 u to win 1.0 u
Early in the game Clev is winning 4-0
I go to live and the dog is + 400 or +500 or more depending on the matchup etc.
My rule is I want to protect that $100 with what I call an insurance bet that I hope will lose
I will only play a maximum of 10% of 100 for the whole game on my ins. bets
so I take dog 10-50
now my risk is 100 - 90 or 1.11 risk to win 90 instead or risking 1.5u only risking 1.11U and My ROI return on investment has increased nicely
Boss is right I like to wait around 3 or 4 innings I have noticed all the runs are taking place either in the first 3 innings or in the 8th and 9th inning.
How ever one time I have Pitt - 140 after 1 inning pitt 2-0 r/l on dog was +3.5 runs I was expecting 2.5 max. I took the 3.5 2.5 2 times and the cws + 380 + 490 and + 580 never dreamed the cws would win the game Pitt winning 7-5 so I am looking at a nice middle then the cws score 5 runs in the top of the 9th I lost around 2u instead of 5u
I can but real time examples is what I want I will be posting what I see after 1 or 2 outs and what I plan on doing if I get the runs or the m/l I want
The run line I will bet to win 1u if my pre game bet is 4u for the whole game I try not to risk more than 1unit
And I always bet the dog during live play it does not matter who I have pregame in live play I like taking +2.5 runs for 1u and the m/l for 10% of pre game bet.
About half the time will not have a play live other times have 7 bets in one game.
I like to listen to the announcers on mlb.com radio if not on tv
I want to get into the flow of the game and when I bet I am betting on the losing team to make a comeback.
Ex: I have Pitt they are losing 3-0 after 7 innings the line is +2.5 so I take it Pitt scores 1 run in the 8th final 3-1.
I need to let you guys know something about me
I do not know shit about the players the teams nothing at all I just look at #'s that is my gift simple math
Anyone who knows me knows I like fading the public the same thing is true in live play the public is betting
the fav. and the over in live play just like they do pre-game.
Someone thinking I believe they fix games the answer is no I know for a fact they fix games I just wish I knew which game
When I am in live and I am watching the #'s change after 3 outs I am very surprised sometimes the # makes no sense.
I watch this happen in lv in the 90's big nfl playoff game everyone has their money on the fav. at -6.5 for the game.
Their fav. is losing the game at halftime and they look like total shit
They are betting big money and 90% of them panic and bet the other side for the 2nd half and the # is set so they lose both bets
This happens all the time in all sports yes they fix college games also but which ones that info. is priceless
If I worked at 5D even if I was a janitor I could give you 1W per day and hit over 80% easy
There is zero system in live...it is all random variance, but somehow your book knows how to trick you into taking a side, usually at a terrible line. Today I had Reds+4 at -113 and also took Nicole Gibbs in live she lost the 2nd set 6-0. Now every once in awhile you can hit a huge dog on in live, but as far as a system it doesn't exist.
They know how to entice, we might hit that 20-1 Tcu Miracle in live but then lose the next 20 chases on 10-1 dogs....trust me the books know how to suck you in, and sometimes you have no choice to take the dog in live and they get smoked. No one can make money taking a -1667 fav in live.
Perhaps every once in awhile you can shoot for a middle, but you better pick the right game that is exposed to hit right in the middle of the boy and you better try to get a 10 point gap for college and 3-7 for nfl..football talk in here, but believe me I know about all sports in live...it's a dangerous game if you bet on breaks in tennis, you can L any amount you want and it's graded after about 1 min. That's a good way to get hooked in, I warn y'all stay away from Tennis in live unless you find a comeback in the US open, last year I hit Fabio Fogini over Nadal at 10-1.
