-- Live Betting Strategy --

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Hey, d1g1t

I'd love some feedback on a tutorial I wrote called, "Sports Betting: A Live Betting Tutorial".

It's a guide for people that provides specific examples of how and when bettors have the competitive advantage over the sportsbooks while live betting.

Check out an excerpt below...


"Lesson Three: Step #1. Find Games where your Retrieval of Information is Faster than that of the Sportsbook.

Not all television broadcasts are created equal. Different types of broadcasts have faster feeds to the sports event than others. There are regional broadcasts, national broadcasts, international broadcasts, high definition, regular definition, and time-delays due to over the air regulations. All these factors are in the background of sporting events, but have a real impact on live betting. Are you in the fast lane or the slow lane when it comes to the retrieval of information? The goal is to find a competitive advantage by retrieving the game information faster than the trader at the sportsbook.

The ultimate litmus test is to reference what you see on your television screen against the odds going up/down, opening and closing on the live betting platform. In most cases you will see that they are in simpatico. But be patient and snoop around. There are events out there every day where you have access to the information faster than the sportsbook does. In a perfect world, you would be at every event, betting the action live, in person. But that is not a realistic option. The crucial first step, however, is having access to a broad range of matches. Whether through cable, internet or satellite, you will need a depth of events as most sportsbooks do not live bet every match. Most, but not all, internet streams have a substantial lag to them, which really hinders our betting approach on this medium. Television and radio are your best and most viable options.

Also consider which events you want to live bet. The Super Bowl, World Series and Stanley Cup Finals all bring in an enormous amount of action to the sportsbooks, but because of this, the betting activity for these events are more heavily scrutinized by their traders. The same logic applies for primetime games and marquee matchups. You usually will not find many competitive advantages during these games based on these reasons. A west coast game that is played during the week is an example of a less scrutinized event. If you are using a sportsbook that is located in Europe, their trader is working all night monitoring the game. There is a greater likelihood of these traders leaving bets open longer, or small errors to occur during the match.

Remember, sportsbooks have multiple built-in safety measures to defend against these television delays in live betting. Longer processing times and the capping of max bet wagers just to name a few. Just because you have found a match with a faster feed than that of the sportsbook does not guarantee that you will be profitable, but it is a fantastic first step. Step three explains ways of remaining profitable while not drawing the attention of the sportsbook.


Lesson Four: Step #2. “Tee-up” Events for Quicker Bet Placements.

The second step in our live betting strategy is to learn how to ‘tee-up’ your bets. The theory is simple. Have a bet picked out on the live betting platform. Have a wager typed in. Have your mouse hovered over the ‘place bet’ icon. Then, when the time is right, quickly place your bet and win. Be aware though, some sportsbooks have a one-click confirmation for bets, while others have an additional confirmation stage. Live betting is all about timing. This means being alert and attentive during the entire match, actively monitoring the odds as the events unfold. It is easier said than done, of course, but try to maintain your focus. As you know, split seconds can have a tremendous impact in sports. Opportunities to profit can pass by that quickly too. Be prepared. Have your bets teed-up and be ready to place it when the time comes.

Let’s be clear in our objective. There is no easy money made in sports betting. This is not a work-free or risk-free activity. The average bettor prefers making their bet prior to the game – the money line outright - then dedicate 100% of their attention to watching whether it pays off. We are familiar with the results of this strategy. Using the techniques found in this tutorial, however, no bets are made prior to any match. That means no betting the moneyline outright, no betting the spread, no prop bets pre-game, nothing. All the work is done during the course of the action. For most events, this will mean a tremendous amount of patience. Not every game is going to yield an opportunity to utilize this strategy. You are not always going to have a faster retrieval of information than that of the sportsbook. You are not always going to have the same event teed-up compared to the one that actually occurs. But the importance of patience and teeing-up your bet cannot be overstated. Profit is the bottom line.

Take a look at the following example for the importance of teeing-up your bets:

Consider something as simple as a turnover in football. Whether it is an interception or a fumble, the whole momentum of the game swings on these events. A great bet is to tee-up on the defending team to score next. Again, this does not mean placing the bet for the defending team to score next. It does mean, however, that you have selected the defending team to score next event from the live betting options, typed in your wager, and have positioned yourself one-click away from that bet being confirmed by the sportsbook. Teeing-up this bet seems counterintuitive, but when your retrieval of information is faster than that of the sportsbook, and a turnover suddenly occurs, you place your bet. Assuming no penalties or challenge flags reversing the call, the defending team will now have possession of the ball. You have placed your bet at great odds compared to the probability of the event now occurring. It is a tremendous value bet and a great example of the competitive advantages available through live betting.


Lesson Five: Step #3. Fly Under the Radar.

You are watching a hockey game where you notice your retrieval of information is faster than that of the sportsbook. You know this because there is a lag between when the event occurs on your television screen vs. when the odds get updated on the live betting platform. So, you decide to tee-up Team A to score next. Recognizing a potentially profitable opportunity, you type in the maximum amount of money allowed by the sportsbook in the wager field. The instant Team A puts the puck in the net, you quickly click the ‘place bet’ button. Processing… Processing… Confirmed! You receive your bet confirmation. The sportsbook, having just received the same information from which you have placed your bet, closes that event.

This is an example of the classic past posting bet. I will tell you what happens in this scenario, in most cases. More than likely the sportsbook will cancel your bet. You will get a friendly email from the sportsbook advising that your bet has been cancelled and refunded. The sportsbooks are far more devious than that, though. Behind the scenes, they will flag your account as ‘uneconomical’, cap your betting limit to a couple of dollars, rendering your account useless.

I am writing on this issue from experience. This strategy does not work. I do not recommend betting on events after they occur. But it is possible to make money from past posting. Five years ago, past posting was a lot more lucrative and went more undetected. If you want to try it, go ahead and try. In truth, I have gotten away with it many times in the past, but consider yourself fair warned.

The key to a successful and profitable live betting career is to fly under the radar. Using the example above, instead of teeing-up Team A to score next, try Team A to win the period. This event has not already occurred once Team A scores, it has just become more probable. What you are doing is getting fantastic odds on an event that is now more likely to occur. I do not recommend max betting the event, either. Try to bet, at most, around half the max bet. As long as there is enough action on the matchup, your bet should not draw any negative attention from their trader. You now have the option of letting your bet ride throughout the rest of the period, or conversely, once the odds repopulate, you can scalp your position by betting on a Draw and Team B to win the period.

Remember, sportsbooks have little incentive to keep around profitable bettors. There are plenty of squares out there eager to give the sportsbooks their money. Their system has plenty of checks and balances that flag suspicious betting activity. This is why I always recommend that you never max bet, and you always scalp your bets. Like the old adage, you can sheer a sheep many times but skin it only once. We are aiming for long term, continuous, and healthy cashflows. Not one giant windfall. No one max bets events at high odds without drawing some suspicion when they win. So fly under the radar. Think about betting at multiple sites too. If you are able to spread out the sources from where your profit is coming from, there is less risk in any one sportsbook refusing your action.


Lesson Six: How to Make Money Betting on Football.

Now that we have reviewed the three steps to profitable live betting, let’s examine some specific examples of how to apply these steps to the major sports available.

Football. American Football, that is. After many seasons, I have found some great ways to make money during a live betting match. Remember the three steps to profitable live betting: find events with faster retrieval of information than that of the sportsbook, tee-up events for quick bet placements, and fly under the radar. Also remember that not every match presents an opportunity to succeed. Again, stick to the strategy. If an opportunity does not present itself, then do not bet!

As mentioned earlier, Next Team to Score is an interesting bet if one team pays over +100 to score next. Try placing that bet – Team A next to Score at +100 or greater, as the other team is failing on a third down conversion, throwing a pick or fumble. This means having bets teed-up and ready to place. The goal is to have Team A next to score, paying +100 or more, as the ball is being turned over, or about to be punted, to them. Depending on field position, the odds should swing enough so that Team B will also pay over +100 to score next. It is a great way to scalp profits.

Another bet that is worth pursuing is the next type of score – field goal, touchdown, or other. When in field goal range in long third downs, field goal as the next score is a good bet if it does not look like a conversion is possible.
Have touchdown teed-up when a team is driving, and look to place your bet during a big play or penalty call (such as pass interference) which will result in a lot of yards for the offense. It is not guaranteed that the bet will pay off, but it is a value bet as your team is seizing the momentum.

Some sportsbooks provide the option of betting on whether the next play for the offense will be a run or a pass. This is one of the best examples of the live betting advantage. Will the next play be a run or pass? Recognize formations pre-snap. Understand down and distance and team tendencies. If a team comes out in a wildcat formation, you know it is going to be a run. Regular empty backfield? Pass. Double tight end I-form? Likely run. Being attentive and quick is such a crucial element to success when live betting. You must be able to disseminate the information faster than others. The pass bet is usually divided into complete and incomplete passes. My best advice for completed passes is to look for plays that will result in quick slants, screen plays, and short passes to the running back. Again, you will have to be familiar with the teams tendencies, formations, and down and distance. It takes work and is not easy. It is also not that difficult. If it is an obvious passing play, try the betting combo of complete pass and incomplete pass. They both usually pay well over +100, so it is a good scalping option.

There are also some interesting field position bets out there as well. Where will Team A start their next drive from populates before kickoffs and punts. A hint is to know the wind conditions at the game – for outdoor stadiums, of course. Sportsbooks sometimes forget to adjust for the wind after quarters in their field position bets. Punters and kickers may have been propped up by favorable wind conditions, so make your bets accordingly.

Nothing is guaranteed in football. Turnovers can happen in an instant. Good bets can lose, and vice versa. There are some sportsbooks out there that close bets as teams break from the huddle, and reopen at the end of each play. Do not play at such conservative sites. Find sportsbooks that are looking to take as much action as possible, truly embracing the live betting platform. For them, have your bets teed-up and ready to place."


*Long post... I know* Hope you found it useful though. The whole tutorial is available on amazon.com -- "Sports Betting: A Live Betting Tutorial" by Nick Squire.


Looking forward to your feedback. Thanks! :toast:
 

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which books allow live in play bets??,,,,,,,,,5 dimes only allows bet during time-outs
 

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I believe all books only accept in game bets during timeouts.

As far as the whole team scoring before another, quit trying to scam a book and process useful information.
Odds say they're operating system is a whole lot faster than your.
Microcomputers bro they're a thing of the future
 

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Oct 16, 2011
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Thanks for the comments.

A few points of clarification:

- There are many reputable sportsbooks that provide a livebetting platform where a bettor places bets while the action is live, not just during timeouts as suggested in the above. Check out the live betting (or in-play betting) options at Bet365, BWin and Partybets for some examples.

- I'm not condoning or encouraging betting past the post, or 'scamming' the sportsbooks. As I mentioned in my earlier post, and as KillaRSox reiterates - the sportsbooks have plenty of checks and balances to filter out these sort of activities. My focus is solely on providing specific examples during live betting where a bettor can legitimately place bets at the highest expected value.

Thanks.
 

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