Listen, and listen closely!!

[blueedwards]

doug, it has nothing to do with teams under or over performing and everything to do with where the line ends up on sunday.

i think fish is saying that the books don't usually get pounded two weeks in a row and thus, expect the dogs to bark this week.

 

[Brock Landers]

Also have to remember the old mantra..<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>

<o></o>

<o></o>

"past performance is no guarantee of future results"<o></o>

<o></o>

The books may get hammered worse this week! No one knows.<o></o>

 

[trytrytry]

The dogs might bark or might not, it has nothing to do with Last weeks results!<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>

<o></o>

the coaches preparing the game plans are not looking at how favorites did last week!!<o></o>

<o></o>

This thread is so silly.<o></o>

<o></o>

The lines on a few key public games could be 1/2 ot 1 or even 1 1/2 points high if the public has a bit more cash to wager on this week. I am willing to agree to that but it only makes a difference to a person betting if those exact games actually land right near that inflated number. Otherwise the line adjustment and anti public plays makes not difference.<o></o>

<o></o>

 

[D2bets]

I use the terms all the time as well but they are retarded,,,Sharps..squares,,,Who gives a f_ck...

If you win you are sharp..........period

So if you won this weekend you are sharp? What if you lost the previous 10 weekends? Weere you just sharp that one weekend? Are you now and forever sharp? Or are you sharp only one the weekends that you win...so that you sorta float into and out of sharp and non-sharp status?

Sharps lose sometimes.
Squares win sometimes.
You can win (short-term) and not be sharp.

 

[Ego74]

fish, you dont actually think that these teams play differently and somehow do not perform based on how much money the "public" has bet on them do you?? if so then by what mechanism? do the coaches put up the wagerline charts a the final team meeting and say, opps guys, forget what we talked about we need to underperform this week, see look at these charts, we cant cover today. The only thing that you could possible be hoping for is that the line is up 1/2 point or a point on a few public teams and you have a slight (mabe 1-2% edge in your wager) long term, but the weekend action is not long term! how many games will finish 1/2 or 1 point off of the posted number this weekend? My guess is none.

there is no reason at all to expect any team to underperform or change their game plan based on how much action is bet on them my Mr. Average bettor.

One of the factors of the Vegas Line is knowing what teams the public like to bet. For example, Philly opens up as a 7 pt fave at NY Giants. If the Giants were a "joe public" team, instead of Philly, this game opens up close to a pick'em. Just like Dallas during the Aikman, Emmett,Irvin years, the line on them was ALWAYS a few points higher than it shoulda been.

 

[Fishhead]

I frankly don't care who the public is on. The fact that the public is on the same pick as me doesn't mean my pick is bad. The public wins sometimes too.

I don't pay attention to it. I find that it just clouds my judgement. Gotta stick to my own handicapping and not what the public thinks...even if they are usually wrong.

The other thing to is a lot of the times who the public is on is simply speculation.

The PUBLIC is wrong much more than they are right in regards to picking NFL winners.

This is common knowledge to any experienced NFL handicapper.

 

[Journeyman]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pete Rose JR
I use the terms all the time as well but they are retarded,,,Sharps..squares,,,Who gives a f_ck...

If you win you are sharp..........period



Excellent point!!!


I will '3rd' this point....who gives a flying fvck, this is the most overrated BS, squares sharps, I could care less...anyone paying this much attention to what everyone else is doing, needs a new hobby.

 

[Journeyman]

The PUBLIC is wrong much more than they are right in regards to picking NFL winners.

This is common knowledge to any experienced NFL handicapper.

If this were true wouldn't every offshore clerk be filthy rich?

 

[sherman]

while i agree, the public sucks at capping nfl games, i like journeys question....why isnt every clerk rich? though journey probably cause they dont have big roll to start with and also because of chasing, money management etc.

BTW, someone mentioned Dallas always gave a few extra in the Irvin/Aikman days. As a Cowboys fan, I believe they continue to give extra points. Seems like they are a very favorite public team. And I hate it!

 

[Fishhead]

If this were true wouldn't every offshore clerk be filthy rich?

They should be, but the majority never have the BR or the GUTS to wager on crappy teams that cover.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Nice heads up Fish, thanks. I don't think this thread was intended to be a sure way everyone on the forum will be an automatic winner, yet it surely has some value. It's like being on a poker cruise in the middle of nowhere and hearing 6 of the worst poker players around all just split a huge slot pay-out, lot of jack floating around where it isn't at normally. Be lot of public money around, the squares are flush. While that alone won't make you a sure winner it's another piece of the pie, be aware is all he's saying. If for some reason you are going to play a team Joe Public historically loves (Indy, Philly, NE, Jets, Yankees, Duke etc.....) or perhaps just regular favorites then get your bets in early, they're probably going to drive the number up. Why would anyone gripe about a thread like this? At the very least it can't hurt any capper to be aware who's been winning lately.


Fish has worked half his life in the business somewhere yet some have no use for his opinion? Some of us squares need all the help we can get, keep it up sir.....

 

[Fishhead]

FWIW, have no problem with individuals ignoring who the public is betting as long as they are successful bettors.

However, for me personally, knowing who the public is betting on is an integral factor in who I wager on in the NFL.

 

[Fishhead]

Nice heads up Fish, thanks. I don't think this thread was intended to be a sure way everyone on the forum will be an automatic winner, yet it surely has some value. It's like being on a poker cruise in the middle of nowhere and hearing 6 of the worst poker players around all just split a huge slot pay-out, lot of jack floating around where it isn't at normally. Be lot of public money around, the squares are flush. While that alone won't make you a sure winner it's another piece of the pie, be aware is all he's saying. If for some reason you are going to play a team Joe Public historically loves (Indy, Philly, NE, Jets, Yankees, Duke etc.....) or perhaps just regular favorites then get your bets in early, they're probably going to drive the number up. Why would anyone gripe about a thread like this? At the very least it can't hurt any capper to be aware who's been winning lately.


Fish has worked half his life in the business somewhere yet some have no use for his opinion? Some of us squares need all the help we can get, keep it up sir.....

Thank you sir.

ps- Sorry you couldnt make it the other night..................although you didnt miss a whole yet.

 

[Journeyman]

Fish I wasn't questioning your methodology by no means, I respect what you say...Its just not something I care about, all the 'sharp' 'square' talk...