Listen, and listen closely!!

Fishhead · Nov 22, 2004

After this past Sunday, the JOHN Q. PUBLICS of the world have lots of stash in their wallets, bank accounts, and offshore accounts.

Be VERY leary of backing public teams throughout this Thanksgiving weekend.............and if Heaven forbid they increase their bankrolls again this weekend..............BE QUADRUPLE cautious(or contrarian) the following week on public backed teams.

Personally, I will be looking to bet some heavy action AGAINST some of these JOHN Q. PUBLIC backed teams in the next 4-14 days.

Lawrence · Nov 22, 2004

Indy, San Diego, and Atlanta were played heavy by the public huh?

WorldRunner · Nov 22, 2004

Lawrence said:
Indy, San Diego, and Atlanta were played heavy by the public huh?

Actually I think those were the three heaviest played teams by the public.

Ego74 · Nov 22, 2004

Fishhead said:
After this past Sunday, the JOHN Q. PUBLICS of the world have lots of stash in their wallets, bank accounts, and offshore accounts.

Be VERY leary of backing public teams throughout this Thanksgiving weekend.............and if Heaven forbid they increase their bankrolls again this weekend..............BE QUADRUPLE cautious(or contrarian) the following week on public backed teams.

Personally, I will be looking to bet some heavy action AGAINST some of these JOHN Q. PUBLIC backed teams in the next 4-14 days.

Wholeheartedly agree. Posted similar in my NFL thread. Back to my contrarian ways, definately.

Ego74 · Nov 22, 2004

From Wagerline:

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=530 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top align=left><CENTER><CENTER>Who Does "Joe Public" Like?

</CENTER><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=400 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=left><SMALL>Below are the most popular NFL teams, ranked by the total amount wagered on Wagerline.com, over the past 30 days. Contrarian handicappers believe that teams which are favored most by the public are over valued. Likewise, teams which are favored least by the public are under valued.

</SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width=400 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#0033cc><TD align=left>Rank</TD><TD align=left>Team</TD><TD align=left>Amount Wagered</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0f0><TD align=left>1.</TD><TD align=left>Seattle</TD><TD align=left>1783000</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD align=left>2.</TD><TD align=left>Philadelphia</TD><TD align=left>1762900</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0f0><TD align=left>3.</TD><TD align=left>Ny Jets</TD><TD align=left>1646900</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD align=left>4.</TD><TD align=left>Indianapolis</TD><TD align=left>1642400</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0f0><TD align=left>5.</TD><TD align=left>New England</TD><TD align=left>1634600</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD align=left>6.</TD><TD align=left>San Diego</TD><TD align=left>1581700</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0f0><TD align=left>7.</TD><TD align=left>Green Bay</TD><TD align=left>1547100</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD align=left>8.</TD><TD align=left>Ny Giants</TD><TD align=left>1508800</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0f0><TD align=left>9.</TD><TD align=left>Baltimore</TD><TD align=left>1498400</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD align=left>10.</TD><TD align=left>Kansas City</TD><TD align=left>1463500</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0f0><TD align=left>11.</TD><TD align=left>Denver</TD><TD align=left>1429700</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD align=left>12.</TD><TD align=left>Pittsburgh</TD><TD align=left>1363300</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0f0><TD align=left>13.</TD><TD align=left>Detroit</TD><TD align=left>1330400</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD align=left>14.</TD><TD align=left>Buffalo</TD><TD align=left>1307500</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0f0><TD align=left>15.</TD><TD align=left>Minnesota</TD><TD align=left>1250000</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD align=left>16.</TD><TD align=left>Dallas</TD><TD align=left>1195000</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0f0><TD align=left>17.</TD><TD align=left>St Louis</TD><TD align=left>1127000</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD align=left>18.</TD><TD align=left>Atlanta</TD><TD align=left>1111900</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0f0><TD align=left>19.</TD><TD align=left>Houston</TD><TD align=left>1102100</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD align=left>20.</TD><TD align=left>Tampa Bay</TD><TD align=left>1049600</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0f0><TD align=left>21.</TD><TD align=left>Cincinnati</TD><TD align=left>1040400</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD align=left>22.</TD><TD align=left>Chicago</TD><TD align=left>1012200</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0f0><TD align=left>23.</TD><TD align=left>San Francisco</TD><TD align=left>972100</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD align=left>24.</TD><TD align=left>Washington</TD><TD align=left>955200</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0f0><TD align=left>25.</TD><TD align=left>Arizona</TD><TD align=left>951500</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD align=left>26.</TD><TD align=left>Carolina</TD><TD align=left>946500</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0f0><TD align=left>27.</TD><TD align=left>Cleveland</TD><TD align=left>933800</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD align=left>28.</TD><TD align=left>Jacksonville</TD><TD align=left>932500</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0f0><TD align=left>29.</TD><TD align=left>New Orleans</TD><TD align=left>908000</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD align=left>30.</TD><TD align=left>Miami</TD><TD align=left>864600</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0f0><TD align=left>31.</TD><TD align=left>Oakland</TD><TD align=left>759200</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD align=left>32.</TD><TD align=left>Tennessee</TD><TD align=left>675400</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></CENTER></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=530 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Fishhead · Nov 22, 2004

Talked to a local here in Tampa and he metioned to me that it was his worst Sunday EVER.

RobFunk · Nov 22, 2004

my guess is the public likes those teams in the top 10 becuase they usually cover :shoot3:

PeteRoseJR · Nov 22, 2004

PETEY JR is curently 6-0 ATS at Wagerline.....

Bobcats cover vs. DET
UCONN hoops and foots vs. Buffalo
Mem-Gs OVER

These are a few of many from the weekend, that were over 75% consensus...Crazy..I am a bit contrarian so I am licking my chops for the upcoming weeks....

Ego74 · Nov 22, 2004

RobFunk said:
my guess is the public likes those teams in the top 10 becuase they usually cover :shoot3:

Not neccessarily......

1- Seattle 1-6 ats Last 7
2- Philly 2-3 Last 5 (won last 2)
3- Jets 2-4-1 Last 7
4- Indy 2-3 Last 5 (won last 2)

from there, New England and San Diego are both winning teams of late.

Dante · Nov 22, 2004

Fish you are a betting MONSTER

Brock Landers · Nov 22, 2004

So are you saying that all the "pros" lost this weekend? I had one of my bestof the year. Hope it doesn;t make me a "square" cause i killed Pinnacle to the tune of 16 dimes.

PeteRoseJR · Nov 22, 2004

I use the terms all the time as well but they are retarded,,,Sharps..squares,,,Who gives a f_ck...

If you win you are sharp..........period

Lawrence · Nov 22, 2004

Fishhead said:
After this past Sunday, the JOHN Q. PUBLICS of the world have lots of stash in their wallets, bank accounts, and offshore accounts.

Be VERY leary of backing public teams throughout this Thanksgiving weekend.............and if Heaven forbid they increase their bankrolls again this weekend..............BE QUADRUPLE cautious(or contrarian) the following week on public backed teams.

Personally, I will be looking to bet some heavy action AGAINST some of these JOHN Q. PUBLIC backed teams in the next 4-14 days.

Does this mean Indy on Thanskgiving is a bad idea?

PeteRoseJR · Nov 22, 2004

not necessarily...Get the line before it goes up..They are a very flashy public team tha will take money...100 pts in 2 weeks...

OccamsRazor · Nov 22, 2004

Pete Rose JR said:
I use the terms all the time as well but they are retarded,,,Sharps..squares,,,Who gives a f_ck...

If you win you are sharp..........period

Excellent point!!!

trytrytry · Nov 22, 2004

Fishhead said:
After this past Sunday, the JOHN Q. PUBLICS of the world have lots of stash in their wallets, bank accounts, and offshore accounts.

Be VERY leary of backing public teams throughout this Thanksgiving weekend.............and if Heaven forbid they increase their bankrolls again this weekend..............BE QUADRUPLE cautious(or contrarian) the following week on public backed teams.

Personally, I will be looking to bet some heavy action AGAINST some of these JOHN Q. PUBLIC backed teams in the next 4-14 days.

fish, you dont actually think that these teams play differently and somehow do not perform based on how much money the "public" has bet on them do you?? if so then by what mechanism? do the coaches put up the wagerline charts a the final team meeting and say, opps guys, forget what we talked about we need to underperform this week, see look at these charts, we cant cover today. The only thing that you could possible be hoping for is that the line is up 1/2 point or a point on a few public teams and you have a slight (mabe 1-2% edge in your wager) long term, but the weekend action is not long term! how many games will finish 1/2 or 1 point off of the posted number this weekend? My guess is none.

there is no reason at all to expect any team to underperform or change their game plan based on how much action is bet on them my Mr. Average bettor.

Mr.Jones · Nov 22, 2004

If New England wins tonight there will be 16 contestants in the NFL contest on Ron Raymond's site with perfect records this weekend. I checked hoping I would be one of only several. But 16, :WTF:

WorldRunner · Nov 22, 2004

I frankly don't care who the public is on. The fact that the public is on the same pick as me doesn't mean my pick is bad. The public wins sometimes too.

I don't pay attention to it. I find that it just clouds my judgement. Gotta stick to my own handicapping and not what the public thinks...even if they are usually wrong.

The other thing to is a lot of the times who the public is on is simply speculation.

PeteRoseJR · Nov 22, 2004

trytrytry....No but gambling is a game of percentages..The public only hits like 50% of its picks,,,so if they keep winning they will be a good fade..What goes up must come down...I dont think FISH was meaning this has anything to do with players...

dougstewart · Nov 22, 2004

"there is no reason at all to expect any team to underperform or change their game plan based on how much action is bet on them my Mr. Average bettor."

Thank you, Trytrytry, for your voice of reason in this thread. I'm surprised that Fishhead would espouse such a system. It's sorta like if red comes up 3 times in a row in roulette, then bet black because it's due!!!???