I made these bets back in late July, so the odds have probably changed. My opinions, though, remain the same.
Favorites: I’m scared of both Ohio State and USC, as once they play each other I don’t know who’s going to beat the team that won that matchup. So that’s probably half the national title game. Florida is scary with all their returning starters, but it’s so tough to get through the SEC unbeaten. Same goes for Georgia. I think we could have an unbeaten come from one of the other conferences, and that’s where I’m taking my shot. Here are my bets (1 unit on first two, ½ unit on the rest), by best lowest odds to highest.
Missouri (20-1): This actually isn’t even my favorite team in the Big 12, but it’s more of a safety bet. I think they lose at Texas and vs. Kansas, but both of those games are winnable. They also have Nebraska on the road, but their other road games are Baylor and Iowa State. They don’t play Oklahoma or Texas Tech, the two best in the South. I see them getting to the Big 12 title game, and once there and if unbeaten, they must be in the Top 3 nationally. I like Chase Daniels a year wiser, though missing Tony Temple will hurt. The defense has eight returning starters, so that should be enough to keep them in games.
West Virginia (20-1): Their season hinges on two games, a Thursday night at home against Auburn and the final game of the season at home against South Florida. They have to travel to Pittsburgh the week before South Florida, but after last year’s upset they’ll be ready for this year’s game. Pittsburgh is also their toughest road game. The question is whether they adapt to new coach Bill Stewart and whether RB Noel Devine can be even 80 percent of Steve Slaton. Four returnees on defense concerns me, and they have sleeper games at East Carolina and at Colorado in the first three games. But if they get to the Auburn game unbeaten (6-0), they will be noticed.
Texas Tech (50-1): Oklahoma could easily go 12-0, but if they lose it will be to Texas Tech. And Tech could roll into Norman at 10-0. They do have tough road games at Kansas State, Texas A&M and Kansas, but I’m banking on Graham Harrell being lights out as a third-year starter at QB. Ten starters are back on the offense (second WR graduated), and eight on defense. Chances are they’ll slip up somewhere and voters won’t give them a second chance, but at 50-1 I’ll take the shot.
Clemson (50-1): Admittedly I’m drinking the Phil Steele Kool-Aid here, but Clemson could run the table this year. They don’t play a road game until Oct. 9 at Wake Forest, and miss Virginia Tech, the only good team in the ACC Coastal. Toughest game is probably at Florida State and the season final vs. South Carolina, then probably Va Tech in the ACC title game. They do have Alabama to start the season, but I’m banking on them getting the win at home. They also play two 1-AA teams, SC State and The Citadel, so they shouldn’t be beat up to start the season.
Florida State (60-1): If Florida State can ruin Clemson’s season, why not put a flyer on Florida State? They don’t leave the state of Florida until October 16 (after playing at Miami), and will probably be 6-0 when they hit the meat of their schedule. Then they face Va Tech at home, travel to Ga Tech, play Clemson and BC at home, travel to Maryland and end with Florida at home. If they get by Va Tech and Clemson, momentum could keep them unbeaten until the ACC title game.
South Florida (85-1): This, along with Texas Tech, is my favorite play. If they beat Kansas at home Sept. 13, they’ll be favorites in every game they play until they go to West Virginia for the final game of the season. If I can get West Va and South Florida to this game unbeaten, I’m almost guaranteed one of them will be in the BCS title game. Matt Grothe and Mike Ford are an experienced dup in the backfield, and South Florida has 17 returning starters overall. The October 30 game at Cincinnati will be tough, but Cincy will have played just five days prior at Connecticut and have at West Virginia on deck. (Yes, S Fla will have been at Louisville the same day, but at least they’re on equal short footing.)
Favorites: I’m scared of both Ohio State and USC, as once they play each other I don’t know who’s going to beat the team that won that matchup. So that’s probably half the national title game. Florida is scary with all their returning starters, but it’s so tough to get through the SEC unbeaten. Same goes for Georgia. I think we could have an unbeaten come from one of the other conferences, and that’s where I’m taking my shot. Here are my bets (1 unit on first two, ½ unit on the rest), by best lowest odds to highest.
Missouri (20-1): This actually isn’t even my favorite team in the Big 12, but it’s more of a safety bet. I think they lose at Texas and vs. Kansas, but both of those games are winnable. They also have Nebraska on the road, but their other road games are Baylor and Iowa State. They don’t play Oklahoma or Texas Tech, the two best in the South. I see them getting to the Big 12 title game, and once there and if unbeaten, they must be in the Top 3 nationally. I like Chase Daniels a year wiser, though missing Tony Temple will hurt. The defense has eight returning starters, so that should be enough to keep them in games.
West Virginia (20-1): Their season hinges on two games, a Thursday night at home against Auburn and the final game of the season at home against South Florida. They have to travel to Pittsburgh the week before South Florida, but after last year’s upset they’ll be ready for this year’s game. Pittsburgh is also their toughest road game. The question is whether they adapt to new coach Bill Stewart and whether RB Noel Devine can be even 80 percent of Steve Slaton. Four returnees on defense concerns me, and they have sleeper games at East Carolina and at Colorado in the first three games. But if they get to the Auburn game unbeaten (6-0), they will be noticed.
Texas Tech (50-1): Oklahoma could easily go 12-0, but if they lose it will be to Texas Tech. And Tech could roll into Norman at 10-0. They do have tough road games at Kansas State, Texas A&M and Kansas, but I’m banking on Graham Harrell being lights out as a third-year starter at QB. Ten starters are back on the offense (second WR graduated), and eight on defense. Chances are they’ll slip up somewhere and voters won’t give them a second chance, but at 50-1 I’ll take the shot.
Clemson (50-1): Admittedly I’m drinking the Phil Steele Kool-Aid here, but Clemson could run the table this year. They don’t play a road game until Oct. 9 at Wake Forest, and miss Virginia Tech, the only good team in the ACC Coastal. Toughest game is probably at Florida State and the season final vs. South Carolina, then probably Va Tech in the ACC title game. They do have Alabama to start the season, but I’m banking on them getting the win at home. They also play two 1-AA teams, SC State and The Citadel, so they shouldn’t be beat up to start the season.
Florida State (60-1): If Florida State can ruin Clemson’s season, why not put a flyer on Florida State? They don’t leave the state of Florida until October 16 (after playing at Miami), and will probably be 6-0 when they hit the meat of their schedule. Then they face Va Tech at home, travel to Ga Tech, play Clemson and BC at home, travel to Maryland and end with Florida at home. If they get by Va Tech and Clemson, momentum could keep them unbeaten until the ACC title game.
South Florida (85-1): This, along with Texas Tech, is my favorite play. If they beat Kansas at home Sept. 13, they’ll be favorites in every game they play until they go to West Virginia for the final game of the season. If I can get West Va and South Florida to this game unbeaten, I’m almost guaranteed one of them will be in the BCS title game. Matt Grothe and Mike Ford are an experienced dup in the backfield, and South Florida has 17 returning starters overall. The October 30 game at Cincinnati will be tough, but Cincy will have played just five days prior at Connecticut and have at West Virginia on deck. (Yes, S Fla will have been at Louisville the same day, but at least they’re on equal short footing.)
You made the claim that Ohio State is possibly the most talented team in the country in August. Tell me you've changed your mind now we are in mid-october. Even if they run the table and win the Big-10, I'm not convinced in the least bit. Another blowout wether it be a Rose Bowl or maybe even the NCG will be expected.
