Lions lead list of worst drafting teams
Sharon Katz
On Monday we looked at the best drafting teams in the NFL. Not surprisingly, the Seahawks were atop the rankings after winning back-to-back NFC Championships with a homegrown roster of draft successes.
Today we are going to dive into the other side of the conversation -- the NFL's worst drafters.
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A full methodology of the study can be found in Monday's article, but the basic premise is that we are evaluating how teams have drafted since league expansion in 2002. The last two draft classes were omitted because there is not enough information on the successes and failures of the players.
To evaluate which draft picks were gems and which were busts, we utilized Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value (AV) metric to break down how every NFL draft pick since 2002 performed in his first four years in the league (approximate length of his rookie contract). We compared each player's four-year AV to what would be expected of a player selected in the same draft slot to determine which players over- and underperformed the most compared to expectations. By adding up the AV differences for all of a team's draft picks, we can determine which teams excel at finding value in the draft -- and which teams aren't as successful.
Worst Drafters
It's no coincidence that the five worst drafting teams since league expansion have four of the five worst records in the NFL since 2002. The Detroit Lions lead the way by a wide margin, after drafting several notable busts in the early-to-mid 2000s. Because early-round picks are expected to perform well, the worst picks are often the first-rounders who never panned out.
1. Detroit Lions
Minus-6.2 AV per draft
Worst value picks: Charles Rogers (2), Mike Williams (10), Jordon Dizon (45)
Since league expansion, Detroit has been the worst drafting team in the NFL by a wide margin. The number of unsuccessful picks goes well beyond the three players noted above. Since 2002, the Lions drafted 15 players ranked in the bottom 10 percent of AV added, most in the NFL, and many of those players came with a big price tag. Charles Rogers (No. 2 overall) and Mike Williams (No. 10 overall) are the most notable busts; they cost the Lions more than $25 million despite neither making it through their rookie contracts with the team.
Admittedly, the Lions hit on a few first-round picks like Ndamukong Suh andCalvin Johnson, but as top-2 picks, they were expected to perform well. What really hurt the Lions in the rankings is their inability to find value later in the draft. The Lions ranked last in terms of value added in rounds four through seven.
2. Oakland Raiders
Plus-2.0 AV added per draft
Worst value picks: JaMarcus Russell (1), Andrew Walter (69), Teyo Johnson (63)
The Raiders' draft ineptitude begins in the first round, where they have gotten the least value out of their first-round picks of any franchise since 2002. The conversation begins with possibly the biggest bust in NFL history, JaMarcus Russell, but it goes beyond Russell to other top-10 picks who failed to live up to expectations. What makes Oakland's first-round failures even more fascinating is the roster the Raiders could have assembled if they took the player who was selected next in the first round. Could you imagine Aaron Rodgers throwing toLarry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson? Pure excitement.
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</tbody></aside>With Al Davis calling the shots, the Raiders became enamored with speed rather than skill. From 2008 to 2011 the Raiders took either the fastest or second-fastest player at the combine, and none of those players turned into above-average assets. Recently, the Raiders seem to be on the right track after a successful 2014 draft, but the Raiders have a long way to go to make up for previous mistakes.
3. St. Louis Rams
Plus-3.8 AV added per draft
Worst value picks: Jason Smith (2), Tye Hill (15), Joe Klopfenstein (46)
With Les Snead as general manager, the Rams have turned over a new leaf. They undoubtedly came out the winner in the Robert Griffin III trade and had one of the best drafts of any team in 2014. Prior to Snead's tenure, however, St. Louis missed on a bunch of players. The most notable blunder was No. 2 overall pick in 2009 offensive tackle Jason Smith, who cost the Rams $32 million before they traded him to the Jets after three injury-riddled seasons.
What makes a team a great drafter, though, is the ability to find gems in later rounds. The Rams have not selected a player in rounds four through seven who went on to make the Pro Bowl since 1985, by far the longest streak in the NFL.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Plus-6.8 AV added per draft
Worst value picks: Brian Price (35), Dexter Jackson (58), Cadillac Williams (5)
There is a reason why the Bucs have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. From 2008 to 2013, Tampa Bay had a few successful draft picks but even more unsuccessful ones. Josh Freeman, despite a few good years, never turned out to be the franchise quarterback that the Bucs expected. Second-round picks Brian Price, Arrelious Benn and Da'Quan Bowers also failed to provide the value expected at their draft slots.
<aside class="inline inline-photo full" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-right-style: solid; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><figure style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; position: relative;">
<img data-sizes="auto" class=" lazyautosizes imageLoaded lazyloaded " data-image-container=".inline-photo" sizes="570px" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; display: block; vertical-align: top; width: 570px;"><figcaption style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 11px; line-height: 16px; padding-top: 10px; position: relative;"><cite style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); font-style: normal; display: inline-block; white-space: nowrap;">Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports</cite></figcaption></figure></aside>Add in the fact that the Bucs gave up first- and fourth-round picks in 2013 forDarrelle Revis, who ate up cap space and did not last more than a year, and it's not a surprise that Jason Licht took over at general manager at the start of 2014.
5. Cleveland Browns
Plus-9.8 AV added per draft
Worst Picks: Brady Quinn (22), Brian Robiskie (36), David Veikune (52)
The Browns went through five general managers in seven years from 2008 to 2014, so it's not shocking they are one of the five worst drafting teams in the NFL. The Browns' inability to find a starting quarterback is really what set them back. They have been through 22 starting quarterbacks since 1999, most in the league during that span, and last year they became the third team in the common draft era to select two first-round quarterbacks in a three-year span (Brandon Weeden and Johnny Manziel).
Trades have not been kind to the Browns, either. They moved up one spot to draft Kellen Winslow sixth overall in the 2004 draft and again one spot to draftTrent Richardson third overall in the 2012 draft. Those unsuccessful trades cost Cleveland multiple later-round picks, including a second-rounder in 2004. In theory, the Julio Jones trade -- which landed the Browns four extra picks -- should have been a win for Cleveland, but only one of the players that the Browns selected with the extra picks was on its roster last season.
All of the teams on this list have one thing in common: their draft ineptitude has cost them wins on the field. In the 2015 draft they will again look to rebuild. The rebuilding process begins in the first round, but remember, the real draft value is found with the late-round gems.
Dishonorable Mention: Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Washington Redskins
Sharon Katz
On Monday we looked at the best drafting teams in the NFL. Not surprisingly, the Seahawks were atop the rankings after winning back-to-back NFC Championships with a homegrown roster of draft successes.
Today we are going to dive into the other side of the conversation -- the NFL's worst drafters.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
A full methodology of the study can be found in Monday's article, but the basic premise is that we are evaluating how teams have drafted since league expansion in 2002. The last two draft classes were omitted because there is not enough information on the successes and failures of the players.
To evaluate which draft picks were gems and which were busts, we utilized Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value (AV) metric to break down how every NFL draft pick since 2002 performed in his first four years in the league (approximate length of his rookie contract). We compared each player's four-year AV to what would be expected of a player selected in the same draft slot to determine which players over- and underperformed the most compared to expectations. By adding up the AV differences for all of a team's draft picks, we can determine which teams excel at finding value in the draft -- and which teams aren't as successful.
Worst Drafters
It's no coincidence that the five worst drafting teams since league expansion have four of the five worst records in the NFL since 2002. The Detroit Lions lead the way by a wide margin, after drafting several notable busts in the early-to-mid 2000s. Because early-round picks are expected to perform well, the worst picks are often the first-rounders who never panned out.
Minus-6.2 AV per draft
Worst value picks: Charles Rogers (2), Mike Williams (10), Jordon Dizon (45)
Since league expansion, Detroit has been the worst drafting team in the NFL by a wide margin. The number of unsuccessful picks goes well beyond the three players noted above. Since 2002, the Lions drafted 15 players ranked in the bottom 10 percent of AV added, most in the NFL, and many of those players came with a big price tag. Charles Rogers (No. 2 overall) and Mike Williams (No. 10 overall) are the most notable busts; they cost the Lions more than $25 million despite neither making it through their rookie contracts with the team.
Admittedly, the Lions hit on a few first-round picks like Ndamukong Suh andCalvin Johnson, but as top-2 picks, they were expected to perform well. What really hurt the Lions in the rankings is their inability to find value later in the draft. The Lions ranked last in terms of value added in rounds four through seven.
Plus-2.0 AV added per draft
Worst value picks: JaMarcus Russell (1), Andrew Walter (69), Teyo Johnson (63)
The Raiders' draft ineptitude begins in the first round, where they have gotten the least value out of their first-round picks of any franchise since 2002. The conversation begins with possibly the biggest bust in NFL history, JaMarcus Russell, but it goes beyond Russell to other top-10 picks who failed to live up to expectations. What makes Oakland's first-round failures even more fascinating is the roster the Raiders could have assembled if they took the player who was selected next in the first round. Could you imagine Aaron Rodgers throwing toLarry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson? Pure excitement.
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| NEXT PICK | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | JaMarcus Russell | Calvin Johnson |
| 2006 | Michael Huff | Donte Whitner |
| 2005 | Fabian Washington | Aaron Rodgers |
| 2004 | Robert Gallery | Larry Fitzgerald |
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Plus-3.8 AV added per draft
Worst value picks: Jason Smith (2), Tye Hill (15), Joe Klopfenstein (46)
With Les Snead as general manager, the Rams have turned over a new leaf. They undoubtedly came out the winner in the Robert Griffin III trade and had one of the best drafts of any team in 2014. Prior to Snead's tenure, however, St. Louis missed on a bunch of players. The most notable blunder was No. 2 overall pick in 2009 offensive tackle Jason Smith, who cost the Rams $32 million before they traded him to the Jets after three injury-riddled seasons.
What makes a team a great drafter, though, is the ability to find gems in later rounds. The Rams have not selected a player in rounds four through seven who went on to make the Pro Bowl since 1985, by far the longest streak in the NFL.
Plus-6.8 AV added per draft
Worst value picks: Brian Price (35), Dexter Jackson (58), Cadillac Williams (5)
There is a reason why the Bucs have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. From 2008 to 2013, Tampa Bay had a few successful draft picks but even more unsuccessful ones. Josh Freeman, despite a few good years, never turned out to be the franchise quarterback that the Bucs expected. Second-round picks Brian Price, Arrelious Benn and Da'Quan Bowers also failed to provide the value expected at their draft slots.
<aside class="inline inline-photo full" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-right-style: solid; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><figure style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; position: relative;">
<img data-sizes="auto" class=" lazyautosizes imageLoaded lazyloaded " data-image-container=".inline-photo" sizes="570px" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; display: block; vertical-align: top; width: 570px;"><figcaption style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 11px; line-height: 16px; padding-top: 10px; position: relative;"><cite style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); font-style: normal; display: inline-block; white-space: nowrap;">Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports</cite></figcaption></figure></aside>Add in the fact that the Bucs gave up first- and fourth-round picks in 2013 forDarrelle Revis, who ate up cap space and did not last more than a year, and it's not a surprise that Jason Licht took over at general manager at the start of 2014.
Plus-9.8 AV added per draft
Worst Picks: Brady Quinn (22), Brian Robiskie (36), David Veikune (52)
The Browns went through five general managers in seven years from 2008 to 2014, so it's not shocking they are one of the five worst drafting teams in the NFL. The Browns' inability to find a starting quarterback is really what set them back. They have been through 22 starting quarterbacks since 1999, most in the league during that span, and last year they became the third team in the common draft era to select two first-round quarterbacks in a three-year span (Brandon Weeden and Johnny Manziel).
Trades have not been kind to the Browns, either. They moved up one spot to draft Kellen Winslow sixth overall in the 2004 draft and again one spot to draftTrent Richardson third overall in the 2012 draft. Those unsuccessful trades cost Cleveland multiple later-round picks, including a second-rounder in 2004. In theory, the Julio Jones trade -- which landed the Browns four extra picks -- should have been a win for Cleveland, but only one of the players that the Browns selected with the extra picks was on its roster last season.
All of the teams on this list have one thing in common: their draft ineptitude has cost them wins on the field. In the 2015 draft they will again look to rebuild. The rebuilding process begins in the first round, but remember, the real draft value is found with the late-round gems.
Dishonorable Mention: Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Washington Redskins
