Linesmakers...How do they do it on some of these ODD lines??

Dante · Aug 30, 2004

Take for example the Over/Under USA medals of 104.5

As we all know it ended at USA had 103 medals my question is HOW the PHUCK do they get so close to this total!! I mean these guys are good!! How do they CAP this so the total is so close!!

There are a TON of countries from Lativa to Estonia participating and all kinds of different things that could go on in the Olympics and they get the total almost on the NOSE!!

I am amazed

SportSavant · Aug 30, 2004

that is why they are the 'linesmakers' & we are the gamblers...

Fishhead · Aug 30, 2004

Yes, and the sharp gamblers are much sharper.

DickyW · Aug 30, 2004

I will give them credit I thought the number was to big. Even though I think they got smashed on the prop, amazing it fell so close to the number

quantumleap · Aug 30, 2004

Take a look at this thread in the Handicapping Forum. I like the quote by Mr Tanaka-

"You just tend to notice and remember the close ones more often."

http://forum.therx.com/eve/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=8183022525&m=781106111

drunkguy · Aug 30, 2004

like quantum said...

those same sharp linesmakers didn't do so hot on the USC/Va Tech total they posted at 56, got pushed down to 48, and still went under

OUCH!

never mind Va Tech +20 at some places, down to 16 or 15.5 by gametime, and still didn't need that many

for every "close" line there are probably 10 that are way off

SportSavant · Aug 30, 2004

one thing that you must remember...

more often than not the Final Outcome falls nowhere near the linesmakers posted odds... but we always dismiss those situations...

we only talk about it when it is close...

If the usa had finished with 200 medals there would never have been a thread that was started which stated:

"How come the oddsmakers so often are not close to the odds?"

It is like BAD BEATS... you always remember the Bad Beats, but quickly dismiss the 'Lucky Wins'