Isn't predicting line movement easier than picking the games. The yanks opened around -170 and ended at -200, obviously no one thinks they lose three in a row. But if you would've bought them early then bought the o's on MB(with .01 cent lines) later you could have made some serious guaranteed cash either way. Does anyone have experience doing this, and are there any websites that could help with this?
This could be an interesting thing to track, how the line moves with certain teams/certain spreads.
I would hypothesize that big public teams (like the Yanks and Sox) following a loss would get hammered, and the line would move in their favor big time.
You aren't going to make much money doing this (only a few percent) but it is free money after all. I'm not sure if there's an exact science to it but something I'm going to give a try.
I would hypothesize that big public teams (like the Yanks and Sox) following a loss would get hammered, and the line would move in their favor big time.
You aren't going to make much money doing this (only a few percent) but it is free money after all. I'm not sure if there's an exact science to it but something I'm going to give a try.
im thinking about taking Cin and Atl as soon as the line comes out, both are at home facing horrible pitchers, (the line went from -140 to -165 when people saw "silva" against the twins) we'll see what happens. I know it's only 2%, but do that every day with thousands and it could be worthwhile...
It's going to take a lot more data to figure out trends for the line movement.
Simply shopping for lines could net you a good percentage of risk-free money if you bet both sides.
Here were yesterday's games at closing, differences in lines.
NYM v CIN
NYM -114 (5 Dimes)
CIN +118 (Bodog)
DIFFERENCE: +4
DET v TOR
DET +101 (Matchbook)
TOR +100 (Bodog)
DIFFERENCE: +1
SEA v MIN
SEA +131 (Matchbook)
MIN -116 (5 Dimes)
DIFFERENCE: +15
TAM v BOS
TAM -144 (5 Dimes)
BOS +145 (Matchbook)
DIFFERENCE: +1
NYY v BAL
NYY -180 (Pinnacle)
BAL +190 (Bodog)
DIFFERENCE: +10
KC v CWS
KC +151 (Pinnacle)
CWS -150 (WSEX)
DIFFERENCE: +1
CLE v TEX
CLE +111 (Matchbook)
TEX -106 (5 Dimes)
DIFFERENCE: +5
LOS v SDG
LOS -137 (5 Dimes)
SDG +144 (Bet Jamaica)
DIFFERENCE: +7
MIL v SFO
MIL -106 (Matchbook)
SFO +107 (WSEX)
DIFFERENCE: +1
TOTAL DIFFERENCE: +45
Then simply bet to have an even profit irregardless of who wins. Anyone who's good at math can tell us how to do this?
The easy way out is to bet the favorite to win 100 and put 100 on the dog, hoping they'd win. If they do, you profit, if not, no money lost. You would have been +.28 units yesterday doing this.
Simply shopping for lines could net you a good percentage of risk-free money if you bet both sides.
Here were yesterday's games at closing, differences in lines.
NYM v CIN
NYM -114 (5 Dimes)
CIN +118 (Bodog)
DIFFERENCE: +4
DET v TOR
DET +101 (Matchbook)
TOR +100 (Bodog)
DIFFERENCE: +1
SEA v MIN
SEA +131 (Matchbook)
MIN -116 (5 Dimes)
DIFFERENCE: +15
TAM v BOS
TAM -144 (5 Dimes)
BOS +145 (Matchbook)
DIFFERENCE: +1
NYY v BAL
NYY -180 (Pinnacle)
BAL +190 (Bodog)
DIFFERENCE: +10
KC v CWS
KC +151 (Pinnacle)
CWS -150 (WSEX)
DIFFERENCE: +1
CLE v TEX
CLE +111 (Matchbook)
TEX -106 (5 Dimes)
DIFFERENCE: +5
LOS v SDG
LOS -137 (5 Dimes)
SDG +144 (Bet Jamaica)
DIFFERENCE: +7
MIL v SFO
MIL -106 (Matchbook)
SFO +107 (WSEX)
DIFFERENCE: +1
TOTAL DIFFERENCE: +45
Then simply bet to have an even profit irregardless of who wins. Anyone who's good at math can tell us how to do this?
The easy way out is to bet the favorite to win 100 and put 100 on the dog, hoping they'd win. If they do, you profit, if not, no money lost. You would have been +.28 units yesterday doing this.
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akmaymn here's one thing I did find so far.
Home favorites have seen the line move their way 24/37 games, average movement of 5.027
Road favorites have seen the line move their way 7/11 games, average movement of 2.727
Home teams coming off a win have seen the line move their way in 11/18 games, average movement of 4.555
Home favorites coming off a win have seen the line move their way in 9/14 games, average movement of 6.571
Again we are 4 days into the season, but early indicators are that you should take home favorites, especially those coming off a win.
Home favorites have seen the line move their way 24/37 games, average movement of 5.027
Road favorites have seen the line move their way 7/11 games, average movement of 2.727
Home teams coming off a win have seen the line move their way in 11/18 games, average movement of 4.555
Home favorites coming off a win have seen the line move their way in 9/14 games, average movement of 6.571
Again we are 4 days into the season, but early indicators are that you should take home favorites, especially those coming off a win.
Thanks for your work...
Atl opened -188 now was +196
Cin opened -139 now pit +158
but.. Ny opened -165 now KC +155
the other ones are steady or have moved slightly in my favor, the top two were my favorite, but i added a bunch of others to see what happened, ill have to be more selective..
Atl opened -188 now was +196
Cin opened -139 now pit +158
but.. Ny opened -165 now KC +155
the other ones are steady or have moved slightly in my favor, the top two were my favorite, but i added a bunch of others to see what happened, ill have to be more selective..
