Line Movements affecting plays - Please Advise

BuckEyez · Mar 16, 2004

All,

I would be interested in any statistics regarding line movements and winning percentages. Over the last few weeks, the RX has had a ton of agreed picks that have lost. In all of those games the lines moved anywhere from .5 to 1 point against our bets.

What is the statistical winning percentage of bettting with the move in your favor. e.g. Toledo opened the morning +8 and moved to +7. Seein the dip in the line, jump on Marquette -7. I would be interested to see the percentage win of this type of system.

[This message was edited by BuckEyez on March 17, 2004 at 01:03 PM.]

BuckEyez · Mar 16, 2004

Anyone have any input on this ?

SportSavant · Mar 16, 2004

Buck Eyez,

I once used a system where I would bet against the move at the last minute of any NCAAB College game or total where the line moved at least 3 points on 'action' ie no injuries.

I certainly didnt lose money while I tried it but stopped keeping track...

One to watch today is the Michigan Total...140 last night, now 143...Now perhaps one may argue that the sharps play overnite so this is very dangerous....& yes I would agree to some degree, however my philosophy is this...even the best sharps are wrong 43% of the time...& they got the over at 140...now it sits at 143...If it keeps getting pounded perhaps at the last minute or so it will be 144....

This seems to me to be a value play at that point on the under...after all the oddsmakers adjust their line based on the fact that they know the over is popular in the first place.

BuckEyez · Mar 16, 2004

I think I may place a small wager on the under. Maybe I will start this system.
If a line movements occur as often as they do and the public was right the majority of the time, the public would be makeing more money from the books would prefer and someting would change. therein is the basis for this theory

thansk for the input savant

SportSavant · Mar 16, 2004

673 MISSOURI 139 140/141½/142/142½/143/143½/144/144½
9:00 PM

674 MICHIGAN 3 2½

SportSavant · Mar 16, 2004

buckEyez, u cash here? lets track this in this thread...looking for 3 pts or greater...

truelyhandicapping · Mar 16, 2004

last night the first line i saw on vegas insider was marq -6-.

SportSavant · Mar 16, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> last night the first line i saw on vegas insider was marq -6-. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

what is it at now?

BuckEyez · Mar 17, 2004

truley and savant,

truley, i was just trying to make an example of the marquette movement for evidence for my thread. i apologize if the line i stated was off.

savant, i played a paper wager here to see if the thought process worked. I got on the under at the 144.5 and it did win ON PAPER. I agree lets track this thread.

as for today, we have an interesting situation going on with the ND play as some books have moved the line to 5 and 5.5. i could have another paper/real play today with that one.