LINE MOVEMENT QUESTION,,, For Pat,,, or whoever,,

[tatehill2000]

Hi Patrick McIrish,,,

I have read your writeups many times over on other subjects,,, I am really interested in getting a Good angle on this specific question,,,

in the Phili Game,,,, I watched the Line ALL week,,,, it was at -3 for the most part,,, and the VIG at my book started at -120,,, then on thurs,,, it moved to -115, then Sat -110 then later sun -105 then Even on monday,,,, so heres the question,,,,
Why did they move the VIG not the Points??? I think I know the answer,,,, but I would like other opinions,,,,
is it the fact that its on that Magical number 3???? were they trying to Dupe people to a side???
what makes the VIG a better choice to move for the house,,, other than the line move itsself,,

thanks to all,,,
Tater

 

[Fishhead]

They dont want to be middled....and of course.....-3 is the most common # for a game to fall on.

 

[tatehill2000]

Thanks Strut/Fish,,,,
thanks,,,,,,
Still,,, the middleing angle is probably so,,,, but if the line moves,,,, you would still get action on the opposite side,,,,to Balance any middleing??? Right???
Oh well,,,, thanks for the words,, I figured more people would have an opinion on this topic,,,,
thanks again,,,
tater

 

[assassin]

You can see from the movement on the line that more money was coming in on TB (they were right, my damn Eagle suck), if the Book dropped the line to 2.5 (some books did) then they were risking people having Eagles -2.5 and Bucs + 3. While they might win the vig, they risk pushing the 3 bets and losing the 2.5 bets.


As pointed out in various threads, 3 is the key NFL #. Now is the line was 9, they would have no probem moving to 8.5, very little risk of the middle.

Had I still been scalping I found Eagles -3 +110 and TB +3 -110 and could have scalped out a nice bonus.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Tate - These guys are exactly right. I'm bad at this but maybe I can illustrate it with a very generic example. You are hanging Philly -3/Tampa +3 at -110 all week. Late in the week you start getting a lot of Tampa +3 money. Without going into numbers you want to encourage people to bet Philly without moving the number to 2.5 so you move the juice instead. Hopefully when you move the line to Phily -3 EV folks will either bet Philly or stay off the game. If you go down to Philly -2.5 you are going to get heavy Philly action and it has created a number you can get sided on now. A VERY popular number. So what happens now is you will be sitting on a big position with Philly -2.5 since no one is taking Tampa +2.5, if Philly wins by 3 you are screwed. All the people who bet -3/+3 earlier in the week will push and you are left with nothing seemingly but winners on the Philly -2.5 tickets. Much better to play with the juice than expose yourself like this when dealing with 3's. This game didn't land but games lined on 3 like this are very consistant hitting, especially when you don't want them to. LOL. Had the number been 11.5 or 9.5 it is a different story. When the numer is 3 you will see a lot of -120, -130's etc....

Hope this makes sense. I am far out of the loop and this example is not realistic probably but maybe you can get the drift. The bad thing about moving the juice instead of the line is people do not understand it. I had a guy cursing at a poker game on Tuesday he had to lay 6/5 on this game to bet the Bucs. "They must think I am a sucker betting into them at 6/5 instead of 11/10".

 

[Fishhead]

What Pat explained is exactly right. Personally, as a bookmaker I would usually prefer to go -3.5 on a favorite rather than go to -3 -130. What I am saying is -3 -125 was my cutoff and then rarely, and to tell you the truth, usually -3 -120. Same would apply going on the underdog side.

 

[jwunderdog]

Bettor's me included get so fixed on the # verses the Vig we lose track of value.A -3,+3-110 number that is moved to -3 +100, +3 -120, is a 10% move where as the odds of philly winning by exactly 3 is less then 10%, in a sense the book is giving you a better # to bet by moving the juice and not the line if you are betting philly. In other words philly -3 is +100 is a much better bet stat wise then philly -2.5 -110.

 

[tatehill2000]

PAT,,, WUNDER,,, Fish,,,

Crystal Clear !!! I can see their angle now,,,, I have been watching lines more closely,,,, kindof interesting to see how the VIG or lines move on the NFL Games,,,, especially the Degree of the move,,,,Its wild to see the outcome with Steam,,,
all the best GUYS,,,,
Thanks for your words,,,
Tater

 

[Fishhead]

Your welcome. Always remember, each bookmaker has his philosphy and there is not right or wrong in alot of cases. Many times the situation will dictate how a bookmaker reacts. Good luck.

 

[lurkerforages]

jwunderdog
In other words philly -3 is +100 is a much better bet stat wise then philly -2.5 -110.

Totally false, -2.5 -110 is much better than -3 +100.

-2.5 -110 is equivalent to a ML of about -130 where as -3 +100 is the eqivalent of about -145

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

You're right Lurker, I think Jdog meant to say it the other way. Obviously -2.5 -110 is tremendously better than 3- EV for the players.