We had some good discussions going last year on these, and if I did well, I imagine several of you did well also because we were all on the same page on a lot of them. Under; Texas A&M, Arkansas Purdue and Over; Penn State, North Carolina were some that I think a lot of us cashed on. Here are the one's I am looking at this year:
Arizona State un 6.5 -110
Sure they have a formidable defense but this will be one lowly ranked offense. Dmitri Nance was poor last year as a runner, the OL will still be bad and Danny O'Sullivan is a very meager QB, I doubt he makes it through the season, I think this team starts off 4-2 with losses at Georgia (good play for an under there) and at home to Oregon State. Then rattles off losses @ Stanford vs. Cal, vs. USC, and @ Oregon. At this time they are flailing for a bowl bid, and may have to go on the road to face an improving UCLA team at the end of the season. Dennis Erickson may start playing Brock Osweiler in prep for the future. Lucky to make a bowl at best.
Uconn un 6.5 -200
The juice is bad here but this one is just far too attractive. Donald Brown was e.v.e.r.y.t.h.i.n.g. to this team last year and it will be a long season to replace him. I thought Lorenzen was horrible last year, and him being the starter should tell you enough. Frazer reportedly did not look good in spring and they have no experienced TE, which is usually bad news for a new QB. The defense should be alright with all the LB back but they lost playmakers from the DE and future star Darius Butler. Look for a possible upset loss in the first road game @ Ohio. Even if they lose that, I don't see them having a prayer vs. UNC or @ Baylor. Add to that almost guaranteed losses @ Pitt @ WVU @ Cinci and @ Notre Dame, and they have no change at clearing 6 here. Almost no way this team makes a bowl with what they lose.
Georgia un 8.5 -120
This is another bad offense I don't see making up for the star personnel losses. Very similar situation to Arizona St. where the long time starter and star at QB (Stafford and Carpenter) graduate and it's now the backup SRs term who has waited 4 or 5 years for his one year shot. Usuaully doesn't work out well, and color me unimpressed in Georgia's spring game, I saw an offense that won't do much. I think they have losses @ OSU @ Arkansas vs. Florida and @ Georgia Tech. That still has toss up games vs. USCe, vs. Florida nad then a back to back road trip @ Tennessee and @Vanderbilt.
Iowa ov 8 -130
Ricky Stanzi is a QB I really like. He got an easy first season with Shonn Green carrying the load and was able to ease into being a QB. His stats weren't impressive due to the dumb QB competition that spilled over into the season, but Ricky is clearly the guy now. Jewel Hampton getting hurt makes me hesitate, but whoever is the RB will be running behind a great OL. They have a star in LT Bryan Bulaga. On defense, they will be impressive once again even with losing their DT duo. Most everyone else returns from a good defense last year. The only semi-weak spot was the pass defense and they get 3 guys back. This will be a very good defense at all levels and will get off Iowa to a good start. I think you see easy wins vs. NIU, @ Iowa State, vs. Arizona, vs. Arkansas State, vs. Michigan @ Wisconsin vs Indiana and vs Northwestern. That gets you to 8 right there and you still have vs. Minneosta and 3 more road games @ Penn State, OSU and Michigan State. That defense is good enough to even win one of these, this should be a push at worst.
LSU ov 8.5 -105
I faded LSU all over the place last year with their disaster in the secondary and at QB. I think they found a guy they can lean on in Jordan Jefferson even though he isn't the best passer. Those RBs are fantastic. Charles Scott and Keiland Williams is as good as a duo as you are going to see. The OL is good enough and the receivers should be solid. LaFell is back, Toliver is improving and TE Richard Dickson is really good. Balanced offense. This defense will probably see improvement after the lul last year. Chavis is really shaking it up and will make a difference, Patrick Petersen really came on at the end of hte year and will be a difference. I didn't like Chad Jones in coverage last year but that might have been just youth. The LBs are good, but nothing stands out on DL. The schedule sets up well, After games vs Washington, vanderbilt, UL Lafa, @ MSU and @ Georgia. Should be undefeated 5-0 going into a home game against Florida that the whole world could be watching. Could win that game. Even still they have more easy games vs. Auburn, Tulane, LA Tech and Arkansas all at home. They should have a good shot @ Alabama and @ Ole Miss as well. Potential NC darkhorse, with the right breaks they could go 11-1 or 12-0 IMO.
North Carolina ov. 8.5 Even
This is the year for North Carolina that Butch Davis has built up for. A legit ACC contender with a balanced team all around. TJ Yates is very capable if he stays healthy and the RBs are great. The offensive line is experienced and good, the WRs are a hitch after losing all their guys but they can't be too bad. The defense is speedy and impresive. 9 starters are back 6 on a good front 7 that shuld improve. The secondary has plenty of players as well. Good schedule, I see easy wins vs Citdal, @ Uconn, vs ECU, vs Virgina, Vs Georgia Southern, Vs Duke and @ boston College. That still leaves two more home games they can win vs average FSU and Miami teams, and a game @ NC State as well as a game @ GTech where they shut down the triple option last year. ACC contenders.
Oregon ov 8 +160
The under was -200 and frankly I don't get it. Yea I see the personnel losses on the lines, yeah it's important but Oregon has re cruited well, they should be able to reload. The defensive line won't lose too but. Tukuafu is good and Kenny Rowe should be a great player taht no one has heard of yet. The DTs can't be bad and they brought in some JC talent. Very very good crop of LBs and some stars in the Secondary. Masoli will only improve as a passer and Jamere Holland finally got his act together after being a basket case at USC. Ed Dickson is a real mismatch in the passing game so that will help. I don't get why Pflugard transfered, I thought he was gonna have a real shot at PT. I think they get wins @ Boise State, vs Purdue, Utah, Wazzu, and Arizona State. Sorry Cal for NC fans but I think Oregon beats them at home, and should pick up a few games @ UCLA, @ UW @ Stanford and @ Arizona. Win 2 at worst, likely 3, with a realistic shot at all 4. That puts them at worst at a push at 8.
Virginia Tech ov 9.5 +125
Vtech is the PSU of last year with all the peices of this team coming together. Tyrod Taylor removed the ugly hitch out of his throwing motion and should really quicken his release and imp rove him. The OL should be good, Darren Evans is a future star and the young budding WR corps is now a year older. The defense will always be good and they have some stars scattered throughout. The schedule imo sets up well. Wins vs. Alabama, vs Marshall, vs Nebraska, Miami @ Duke, vs. BC, @ ECU, @ Maryland vs NC State and @ Virginia. If they can make it through the stretch of @ GTech then at home for UNC 1-1, they clear easy and are in the NC discussion.
Wisconsin un 8 -115
This line was 9 last year, and now it's 8? Thank you. In my opinion, this is simply not a good team. The QB was bad and they lost their best players on the OL. They have 5 returning starters from a not so good defense, and I don't remember any of those players impressive me. Although the schedule is easy, I don't see how they ever get to 8, and I'm not worried at all about them gettin to 9. Probably see losses vs. MSU, @ Minnesota, @ OSU, vs Iowa, and vs Michigan. Who knows they could even lose @ NW or @ hawaii.
TCU ov 9 -115
I hope I'm not pressing here but I just think TCU is always damn good. I think they are a cut above BYU and should run through the MWC this year, despite a low numbeer of returning starters. They return some key players and that should be enough. I like them to win @ Virginia to start the year and roll from there, even @ Clemson is a tossup in my opinion. This defense is supposed to be as fast and as good as last year, and I believe it. Andy dalton ain't great but he ain't bad either. The RBs are good enough. BCS busters who could equal or exceed last years total. They get Utah at home in a revenge game and theres no other real challengers in the MWC. 9 wins at worst.
NC State ov 8 +160
This one is a bit of a gamble becuase did you really think a few years ago you'd be betting NC State ov 8? Well everything they need to returns on the offense. Russell Wilson is a dual threat star, and they probably have the best WR corps in the ACC. As an OL guru, O'Brien will have that group ready and Jamelle Eugene should rebound after a dissapointing year last year. I was really bummed about Nate Irving, but there is still playmakers on defense especially Willie young. There is a little question mark in the secondary but they get back Clem Johnson from injury. I like NC State to start out hot and win their first 7 games vs USCe, Murray State, Gardner Webb, Pitt @ Wake, vs Duke and @ BC. All of those are very winnable games and get's the team's confidence high going into the end of the schedule. It's brutal with games @ FSU and Vtech and vs Clemson and North Carolina. At home against Maryland should be a gimme and at least get them to 8. I think their chances to steal one more game, but this is the one I'm probably the least sure about.
South Florida ov 8 -110
This team is flying a little under the radar right now but I think they are your Big East champions. Matt Grothe is a hell of a player and struggeld a bit I thought in his junior season, I imagine he'll return to form for his senior year. If Mike Ford stays healthy he's a force and the WR is a deep group. The OL is the only place where this offense can go wrong. After facing double and triple teams last year George Selvie mgiht be freed up a little by some better play from the front 7 in general. Imprvoements needed in the secondary but the opportunity is there. Easy wins to start with Wofford, West Kentucky and Charles Southern. Gimme wins @ Syracuse, vs Louisville nad @ UConn gets them to 6 wins. There are plenty of other winnable games on the schedule vs Cinci, vs WVU @ Rutgers and vs Miami. There's nothing to say they won't be in it till the end @ FSU. I think FSU will not be as good this year.
Well that is all the stuff I'm looking at, hoping to cut down on a few of them and maybe pick up a few that others are looking at. Let's hear what you think
Arizona State un 6.5 -110
Sure they have a formidable defense but this will be one lowly ranked offense. Dmitri Nance was poor last year as a runner, the OL will still be bad and Danny O'Sullivan is a very meager QB, I doubt he makes it through the season, I think this team starts off 4-2 with losses at Georgia (good play for an under there) and at home to Oregon State. Then rattles off losses @ Stanford vs. Cal, vs. USC, and @ Oregon. At this time they are flailing for a bowl bid, and may have to go on the road to face an improving UCLA team at the end of the season. Dennis Erickson may start playing Brock Osweiler in prep for the future. Lucky to make a bowl at best.
Uconn un 6.5 -200
The juice is bad here but this one is just far too attractive. Donald Brown was e.v.e.r.y.t.h.i.n.g. to this team last year and it will be a long season to replace him. I thought Lorenzen was horrible last year, and him being the starter should tell you enough. Frazer reportedly did not look good in spring and they have no experienced TE, which is usually bad news for a new QB. The defense should be alright with all the LB back but they lost playmakers from the DE and future star Darius Butler. Look for a possible upset loss in the first road game @ Ohio. Even if they lose that, I don't see them having a prayer vs. UNC or @ Baylor. Add to that almost guaranteed losses @ Pitt @ WVU @ Cinci and @ Notre Dame, and they have no change at clearing 6 here. Almost no way this team makes a bowl with what they lose.
Georgia un 8.5 -120
This is another bad offense I don't see making up for the star personnel losses. Very similar situation to Arizona St. where the long time starter and star at QB (Stafford and Carpenter) graduate and it's now the backup SRs term who has waited 4 or 5 years for his one year shot. Usuaully doesn't work out well, and color me unimpressed in Georgia's spring game, I saw an offense that won't do much. I think they have losses @ OSU @ Arkansas vs. Florida and @ Georgia Tech. That still has toss up games vs. USCe, vs. Florida nad then a back to back road trip @ Tennessee and @Vanderbilt.
Iowa ov 8 -130
Ricky Stanzi is a QB I really like. He got an easy first season with Shonn Green carrying the load and was able to ease into being a QB. His stats weren't impressive due to the dumb QB competition that spilled over into the season, but Ricky is clearly the guy now. Jewel Hampton getting hurt makes me hesitate, but whoever is the RB will be running behind a great OL. They have a star in LT Bryan Bulaga. On defense, they will be impressive once again even with losing their DT duo. Most everyone else returns from a good defense last year. The only semi-weak spot was the pass defense and they get 3 guys back. This will be a very good defense at all levels and will get off Iowa to a good start. I think you see easy wins vs. NIU, @ Iowa State, vs. Arizona, vs. Arkansas State, vs. Michigan @ Wisconsin vs Indiana and vs Northwestern. That gets you to 8 right there and you still have vs. Minneosta and 3 more road games @ Penn State, OSU and Michigan State. That defense is good enough to even win one of these, this should be a push at worst.
LSU ov 8.5 -105
I faded LSU all over the place last year with their disaster in the secondary and at QB. I think they found a guy they can lean on in Jordan Jefferson even though he isn't the best passer. Those RBs are fantastic. Charles Scott and Keiland Williams is as good as a duo as you are going to see. The OL is good enough and the receivers should be solid. LaFell is back, Toliver is improving and TE Richard Dickson is really good. Balanced offense. This defense will probably see improvement after the lul last year. Chavis is really shaking it up and will make a difference, Patrick Petersen really came on at the end of hte year and will be a difference. I didn't like Chad Jones in coverage last year but that might have been just youth. The LBs are good, but nothing stands out on DL. The schedule sets up well, After games vs Washington, vanderbilt, UL Lafa, @ MSU and @ Georgia. Should be undefeated 5-0 going into a home game against Florida that the whole world could be watching. Could win that game. Even still they have more easy games vs. Auburn, Tulane, LA Tech and Arkansas all at home. They should have a good shot @ Alabama and @ Ole Miss as well. Potential NC darkhorse, with the right breaks they could go 11-1 or 12-0 IMO.
North Carolina ov. 8.5 Even
This is the year for North Carolina that Butch Davis has built up for. A legit ACC contender with a balanced team all around. TJ Yates is very capable if he stays healthy and the RBs are great. The offensive line is experienced and good, the WRs are a hitch after losing all their guys but they can't be too bad. The defense is speedy and impresive. 9 starters are back 6 on a good front 7 that shuld improve. The secondary has plenty of players as well. Good schedule, I see easy wins vs Citdal, @ Uconn, vs ECU, vs Virgina, Vs Georgia Southern, Vs Duke and @ boston College. That still leaves two more home games they can win vs average FSU and Miami teams, and a game @ NC State as well as a game @ GTech where they shut down the triple option last year. ACC contenders.
Oregon ov 8 +160
The under was -200 and frankly I don't get it. Yea I see the personnel losses on the lines, yeah it's important but Oregon has re cruited well, they should be able to reload. The defensive line won't lose too but. Tukuafu is good and Kenny Rowe should be a great player taht no one has heard of yet. The DTs can't be bad and they brought in some JC talent. Very very good crop of LBs and some stars in the Secondary. Masoli will only improve as a passer and Jamere Holland finally got his act together after being a basket case at USC. Ed Dickson is a real mismatch in the passing game so that will help. I don't get why Pflugard transfered, I thought he was gonna have a real shot at PT. I think they get wins @ Boise State, vs Purdue, Utah, Wazzu, and Arizona State. Sorry Cal for NC fans but I think Oregon beats them at home, and should pick up a few games @ UCLA, @ UW @ Stanford and @ Arizona. Win 2 at worst, likely 3, with a realistic shot at all 4. That puts them at worst at a push at 8.
Virginia Tech ov 9.5 +125
Vtech is the PSU of last year with all the peices of this team coming together. Tyrod Taylor removed the ugly hitch out of his throwing motion and should really quicken his release and imp rove him. The OL should be good, Darren Evans is a future star and the young budding WR corps is now a year older. The defense will always be good and they have some stars scattered throughout. The schedule imo sets up well. Wins vs. Alabama, vs Marshall, vs Nebraska, Miami @ Duke, vs. BC, @ ECU, @ Maryland vs NC State and @ Virginia. If they can make it through the stretch of @ GTech then at home for UNC 1-1, they clear easy and are in the NC discussion.
Wisconsin un 8 -115
This line was 9 last year, and now it's 8? Thank you. In my opinion, this is simply not a good team. The QB was bad and they lost their best players on the OL. They have 5 returning starters from a not so good defense, and I don't remember any of those players impressive me. Although the schedule is easy, I don't see how they ever get to 8, and I'm not worried at all about them gettin to 9. Probably see losses vs. MSU, @ Minnesota, @ OSU, vs Iowa, and vs Michigan. Who knows they could even lose @ NW or @ hawaii.
TCU ov 9 -115
I hope I'm not pressing here but I just think TCU is always damn good. I think they are a cut above BYU and should run through the MWC this year, despite a low numbeer of returning starters. They return some key players and that should be enough. I like them to win @ Virginia to start the year and roll from there, even @ Clemson is a tossup in my opinion. This defense is supposed to be as fast and as good as last year, and I believe it. Andy dalton ain't great but he ain't bad either. The RBs are good enough. BCS busters who could equal or exceed last years total. They get Utah at home in a revenge game and theres no other real challengers in the MWC. 9 wins at worst.
NC State ov 8 +160
This one is a bit of a gamble becuase did you really think a few years ago you'd be betting NC State ov 8? Well everything they need to returns on the offense. Russell Wilson is a dual threat star, and they probably have the best WR corps in the ACC. As an OL guru, O'Brien will have that group ready and Jamelle Eugene should rebound after a dissapointing year last year. I was really bummed about Nate Irving, but there is still playmakers on defense especially Willie young. There is a little question mark in the secondary but they get back Clem Johnson from injury. I like NC State to start out hot and win their first 7 games vs USCe, Murray State, Gardner Webb, Pitt @ Wake, vs Duke and @ BC. All of those are very winnable games and get's the team's confidence high going into the end of the schedule. It's brutal with games @ FSU and Vtech and vs Clemson and North Carolina. At home against Maryland should be a gimme and at least get them to 8. I think their chances to steal one more game, but this is the one I'm probably the least sure about.
South Florida ov 8 -110
This team is flying a little under the radar right now but I think they are your Big East champions. Matt Grothe is a hell of a player and struggeld a bit I thought in his junior season, I imagine he'll return to form for his senior year. If Mike Ford stays healthy he's a force and the WR is a deep group. The OL is the only place where this offense can go wrong. After facing double and triple teams last year George Selvie mgiht be freed up a little by some better play from the front 7 in general. Imprvoements needed in the secondary but the opportunity is there. Easy wins to start with Wofford, West Kentucky and Charles Southern. Gimme wins @ Syracuse, vs Louisville nad @ UConn gets them to 6 wins. There are plenty of other winnable games on the schedule vs Cinci, vs WVU @ Rutgers and vs Miami. There's nothing to say they won't be in it till the end @ FSU. I think FSU will not be as good this year.
Well that is all the stuff I'm looking at, hoping to cut down on a few of them and maybe pick up a few that others are looking at. Let's hear what you think
