Let's talk about the NFL ... Week #5 .... What do you like ??

[Betallsports]

Well after a nice 8-2 Solo Start ... I'm stinking up the place... lol
3-2 in week #3, and my first losing week, week # 4 with a 2-3 record ... Overall Solo Record of 13-7 ( the LVH leader is a Stunning 18-2 ) that's 90% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I usually say what have WE learned in week #4 ... but this week, It's what did I learn....

I learned that I should use most, if not All of my Early leans... and to STOP re-thinking Games.
I learned Not to brush off Division games when one of the teams really needs a Win ( Rams ) even though i did use the Jets, when Miami "Needed" the game.

I Learned Not to bet against the Bengals .... I Learned to stay away from the Broncos ( for now ).... Maybe

First game up : Houston vs. The Colts

Line came out today, PK
Line has moved to Colts -1 with Luck listed as Probable ..

Colts have won the last 5 in a row, and are 4-0-1 ATS in those last 5 games

Early Lean is the Colts -1
* Not because Luck is listed as Probable .... but because Mallet is listed as Probable

I said this in week #2, Mallet is not the answer for the Texans ... after last week when Hoyer came in, he should have earned the start this week.

IF ..... Hoyer get's to Start ... I will probably will change my Lean to Houston

BOL !

 

[cashducats]

i love bengals and pats for the reasons listed in my week 5 thread. i think texans win thurs nite. they resigned josh johnson or whoever that qb was they picked up last week. today, both luck and hasselbeck missed practice. hasselbeck was apparently sick. this colts team is a mess. i think pagano's win one for the gipper style of coaching has run its course. he will prob get fired after this year and then jim harbaugh will ditch mich and win a sb with the colts.

 

[ThaDude]

My initial thoughts: KC and Philly are undeserving of laying those big numbers. I see early money felt the same way.

Very interesting that the look ahead line of Seattle -2 has flipped to Cincy -3. I think the new line is correct and there's no real value on either side. Gun to my head I take Cincy though. I thought they were going to knock Alex Smith out of the game last week they were so physical with him. RW may be in big trouble.

I see a little value with Buffalo. They are a good team and I have them -6.5 on a neutral vs Tenn. Marriota finally sees an elite defense and I'll make him prove it to me.

 

[justanobserver]

Looks to me like the Colts line has moved to +2.5 , seems to easy? Would you guys buy at that price?

 

[PrinceoftheCity]

Looks to me like the Colts line has moved to +2.5 , seems to easy? Would you guys buy at that price?

No i wouldnt. Colts are depleted. practice squad guys running their secondary, Toler is back this week so that helps but several holes. No blocking for Gore or Luck, this will be a boring ugly game. If Mallett implodes Colts may win and cover, but if he plays clean (big IF) Houston should cover and win SU.

 

[Betallsports]

Looks to me like the Colts line has moved to +2.5 , seems to easy? Would you guys buy at that price?

Still trying to figure out WHY Hoyer isn't starting this game ????
and what Idiot made that call

 

[Betallsports]

Well now the Spread is really getting out of hand.... Really wished that Hoyer was starting for the Texans.

Now on the Colts side we have a 40 Year old QB that was Sick just a couple of days ago, Starting....

I did hear that Luck will be throwing on the sidelines Before the game. So I will give a Small warning here.... WATCH the Pre-Game ( just in case )
and watch if Mallet isn't doing his job during the first half.... you just might see Hoyer come in the 2nd half

Other than that... I need to get a feel for the Total... otherwise No Play for me.

 

[rolltide]

toughest week to find plays IMHO. short list:

Pats in a crazy good spot off a bye but line jumped 1.5 already

tons of stuff on Houston as far as a 1-3 team off a loss (usually a great ATS play in game 4) and Indy in a brutal spot with 3 days rest after OT game (was something like a 3-20 ATS spot)

ton of systems on Cleveland but playing the late west game with 6 days rest then playing 3 time zones away vs a team off for 9 days is ugly

teams, like tenn, usually bounce back after bye week when got drubbed but buff need to bounce back as well

skins in big OL/DL advantage and getting a TD is interesting....#1 off hog (OL rating) vs #31 def hog (DL rating) and other lines (#7 off hog vs #6 def hog) basically a wash

5.67	1	[h=4]Offensive Hog Index[/h]	11.67	7
12.00	6	[h=4]Defensive Hog Index[/h]	25.67	31

 

[CruzControl]

Well now the Spread is really getting out of hand.... Really wished that Hoyer was starting for the Texans.

Now on the Colts side we have a 40 Year old QB that was Sick just a couple of days ago, Starting....

I did hear that Luck will be throwing on the sidelines Before the game. So I will give a Small warning here.... WATCH the Pre-Game ( just in case )
and watch if Mallet isn't doing his job during the first half.... you just might see Hoyer come in the 2nd half

Other than that... I need to get a feel for the Total... otherwise No Play for me.

BAS,
This could make for some interesting 2nd halfs plays. Hoping Hoyer comes in myself

 

[halekulani]

twitter saying luck might be tossing on the sidelines but is out for good

 

[Betallsports]

BAS,
This could make for some interesting 2nd halfs plays. Hoping Hoyer comes in myself

wait for it, because I think it's coming

 

[Winning$$]

Nice call betallsports!! Going to be an interesting second half

 

[Betallsports]

Nice call betallsports!! Going to be an interesting second half

yep... I should have a play on the 2nd half ... unless of course the line is too big

 

[Betallsports]

and that's how it's done Boys...

 

[Betallsports]

3 Unit Play for Me ...

Spread -5 -110 for 2nd Half

 

[Betallsports]

3 Unit Play for Me ...

Spread -5 -110 for 2nd Half

A lot of line movement on this... Down to -4 at most shops...

Did I make a mistake ?? Guess we will see

 

[Betallsports]

3 Unit Play for Me ...

Spread -5 -110 for 2nd Half

too bad Houston couldn't stop a paper airplane...

oh well

 

[Betallsports]

So glad that game is out of the way... Now to this weeks Card

Jax vs. TB ... as much as you would think these two Florida teams would meet against each other in regular season play... they have only faced each other Twice since 2004
Plenty of times in Pre-Season.

Not much going on with these 1-3 teams... Only thing you can say is you get a Rookie QB ( Jameis Winston ) vs. 2nd Year QB ( Blake Bortles )

Line Opened TB -3 and hasn't moved

Probably a game I won't touch, as there are Much more games that have Value

Pass

 

[Betallsports]

Buffalo vs. Tenn is an Interesting match up... Titans Off the bye since 2005, 5-6 ATS

Buffalo looking to bounce back after being run over by the NYG
A lot of questions for the Bills this week ...McCoy is still Out, and now Watkins listed as Questionable

As much as I believe Buffalo has a very good Defense .... Looking at Who they have beaten and who they have lost to... they are just a little Above Avg.
But I do believe they can Beat Tenn ( not that good of a Team )

On a Footnote : Tenn has beaten Buffalo 9 out of 10 times dating back to 2000, and are 6-3-1 ATS

Line Opened anywhere from -3/-4 at some shops and is down to -2 / -2.5

 

[TomandJerry]

So glad that game is out of the way... Now to this weeks Card

Jax vs. TB ... as much as you would think these two Florida teams would meet against each other in regular season play... they have only faced each other Twice since 2004
Plenty of times in Pre-Season.

Not much going on with these 1-3 teams... Only thing you can say is you get a Rookie QB ( Jameis Winston ) vs. 2nd Year QB ( Blake Bortles )

Line Opened TB -3 and hasn't moved

Probably a game I won't touch, as there are Much more games that have Value

Pass

I think this game is wrong side favor; and J.Thomas debut in this game for Jax?