Lions.
Cowboys.
Thanksgiving.
It's tradition -- and it's worth celebrating.
Detroit has been playing Turkey Day games since 1934, when the
Lions lost to the two-time defending-champion
Bears in front of 26,000 at University of Detroit Stadium. This might be hard to believe, but that same
Lions team won it all in 1935. (Yes, the
Detroit Lions were champs.) Dallas, meanwhile, got the late
Thanksgiving game in 1966, besting the
Browns (who were not 0-11) at the Cotton Bowl, 26-14. That
Cowboys team would go on, later that season, to play the Lombardi
Packers in the first of two consecutive famous NFL Championship Games.
For years, nobody wanted to play on
Thanksgiving. Detroit had always hosted the game, and then
Cowboys VP Tex Schramm thought it a great showcase for his relatively young organization. Starting in the mid-to-late-'70s, other NFL teams wanted in. Finally, we saw the emergence of the night game a decade ago, which will be
Steelers at Colts this time around.
Andrew Luck's presence would make all the festivities a wee bit cooler, but
beggars can't be choosers.
View image on Twitter
Follow
Elliot Harrison ✔ @HarrisonNFL
Tradition. The first Lions Thanksgiving Day
@NFL game, 1934 versus the Bears.
#football
2:55 PM - 23 Nov 2016
Cool, huh? Those are the '34 Lions in action. Meanwhile, the '66
Cowboys quarterback, "Dandy" Don Meredith, lives on in quotes ...
AZCHawk @cockyboy69 @HarrisonNFL "If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we’d all have a merry Christmas." -Don Meredith Dallas still only beat 1 winning team
You've inspired me, Hawk ... IF the
Cowboys hadn't beaten the
Eagles,
Steelers and
Ravens, they'd all have winning records, BUT they did.
So, do the
Lions win this week? Yeeeeeeesh. That's hard. How about the
Cowboys? See below. As far as Steelers-
Colts, whoever wins will go over .500. As for
your team, the outcome is listed, as well. Feel free to send your take:
@HarrisonNFL is the place.
Now, let's get to it!
Elliot Harrison went 11-3 on his predictions for Week 11, giving him a record of 105-54-2 thus far this season. How will he fare in Week 12? His picks are below:
Thursday 12:30 PM ET CBS
26
24
Huge game in the scope of the NFC North. The
Vikings look to both capitalize on
their win over the Cardinals last Sunday and distance themselves from the divisional bullies in Green Bay. Or at least that's what the
Packers once were; now they're more like Sméagol. The
Lions have precisely the same motivation as Minnesota in wanting to create space in a tight North race. Question is, how do they get there, especially coming off
a game in which they ran for 14 yards?
Fourteen yards. Now Detroit faces a front four that Trump'd, er, trumped
Carson Palmer last week. The
Vikings don't even have to hesitate when it comes to going after
Matthew Stafford ... not without the threat of the run. Oh, by the way, remember
last Thanksgiving, when Stafford threw for 337 yards and
five touchdowns? Yeah, not this time around.
#MINvsDET
Thursday 4:30 PM ET FOX
31
28
This should be a high-scoring affair. The
Cowboys' offensive line is a mismatch for the
Redskins' front. (Please don't look at
James Starks' rushing totals from
Sunday night as evidence to the contrary; that's like holding up
Ben Affleck's rendition of "Daredevil" to rate all superhero flicks against.)
Kirk Cousins, who was hot Sunday, gets the benefit of facing an injury-depleted secondary for the second straight game. Dallas wins at home, salting away the clock with
Ezekiel Elliott and (
a quite motivated)
Alfred Morris in the four-minute offense. The
Cowboys are 6-1 all-time against the
Redskins on
Thanksgiving.
#WASvsDAL
Thursday 8:30 PM ET NBC
30
21
With
Andrew Luck sidelined, this matchup does not bode well for the
Colts. The
Steelers come into Indy on a one-game win streak, which is quite exemplary for them these days.
Le'Veon Bell destroyed the
Browns last week, putting up over two bills from scrimmage. It will be incumbent on Chuck Pagano's defense to hold Bell in check the way it did
DeMarco Murray on Sunday (70 rushing yards). Huge issue: Bell is far more of a weapon in the passing game than Murray.
T.Y. Hilton is playing great for Indy, but he's had Luck throwing him the ball. Not on Turkey Night.
#PITvsIND
Sunday 1 PM ET CBS
23
13
Tight game in Chicago this weekend -- or should I say,
Titan-ic game in Chicago this weekend, providing
Marcus Mariota continues to throw the ball effectively without the negative plays. Tennessee's quarterback has been nothing short of brilliant in November, save for
the loss in San Diego, when he turned the ball over two times in the second half. Given the
Titans' blueprint -- exotic smashmouth, or whatever you want to call it -- they can't afford giveaways. This is a run-first, throw-off-play-action team that is not designed to play catch-up. Here's the good news for Tennessee: The
Bears aren't designed to build an insurmountable lead, or even, really, any lead at all.
Jay Cutler seems pretty questionable, despite
what we're hearing from John Fox. And
without Zach Miller and Alshon Jeffery, QB
Matt Barkley might not be able to pick apart Tennessee's secondary, à la
Andrew Luck last Sunday. Of course,
Matt Barkley might not be able to pick apart an NFL secondary, period.
#TENvsCHI
Sunday 1 PM ET CBS
30
17
Oh, boy. So the
Jaguars haven't won a game in over a month, and the
Bills have their playoff destiny in front of them. With
Sammy Watkins slated to return and
a back sked that shouldn't put Rex Ryan's team on the skids, expect Buffalo to handle
Blake Bortles on Sunday. One way for Jacksonville to slow that down would be to run right at Dennis Thurman's defense, but
Chris Ivory and
T.J. Yeldon ran 21 times against the
Lions' front
on Sunday and only came away with 55 rushing yards. With the offense sputtering, Gus Bradley can ill-afford
a massive special teams breakdown like last week. Buffalo moves to 6-5.
#JAXvsBUF
Sunday 1 PM ET CBS
30
24
As much as I would like to take the
Bengals in an upset in Baltimore, I don't see it happening
sans A.J. Green and Gio Bernard.
Jeremy Hill would have to pick up some serious slack. Super ... The only problem is, Hill has been inconsistent, and the
Ravens own
the top run defense in pro football. They held
Ezekiel Elliott in check -- or as much as you can these days --
last Sunday (25 carries for 97 yards). For Cincinnati to pull off the W,
Andy Dalton would need to be efficient as all get out -- no turnovers. And no drops.
Brandon LaFell and
Tyler Boyd must hold onto the ball. But that's kind of been a challenge in the past.
#CINvsBAL
Sunday 1 PM ET FOX
30
29
Matt Bryant wins it on a 50-yard field goal. This represents a tough road trip for the
Cardinals, who played a physical game against the
49ers two weeks ago, then got beat up
in Minnesota. The defense is not the same without Honey Badger. Even if
Tyrann Mathieu does play, how effective will he be in his first game back since Week 8? The
Falcons won't be able to get after
Carson Palmer the way the
Vikings did, but Atlanta's pass rush is a far cry from how bad it used to be ... which is to say, totally absent. Methinks Palmer still will be feeling the effects of being stepped on by the
Vikings a week later. Although, I wouldn't be shocked if
David Johnson posted over 200 scrimmage yards.
#AZvsATL
Sunday 1 PM ET FOX
24
10
Can we trust
Eli Manning? That guy has been up and down all season, even though
somebody predicted that he would be an All-Pro. So that's not happening. But Manning and the
Giants' offense woke up in the second half last week to put a couple of touchdowns on the board
against Chicago. Another slow start could put them in a tough spot in Cleveland. At this point, you would think the
Browns would be desperate for a win. With
Cody Kessler in the concussion protocol,
Josh McCown has been announced as the starter, which gives the
Browns their best chance to win. If you go by numbers, Kessler's passer rating dwarfs McCown's (92.6 to 66.2), yet the latter has been thrust into situations in which he needs to make plays. McCown takes chances -- granted, they haven't always worked out this year. But checking down when you are down two scores in the fourth quarter won't get a winless team anywhere. Back to Manning: Since the
Giants drafted him in 2004, Cleveland has employed 22 starting quarterbacks. Fun.
#NYGvsCLE
Sunday 1 PM ET FOX
25
17
The
Rams' defense has kept Jeff Fisher's team in games, but can they hold the fort against a
Saints offense that averages over 30 points per home contest? New Orleans scored 25
on the Seahawks' defense and 23
on the Broncos' D, two units that are at least comparable to Los Angeles. My concern is that, with
Jared Goff only making his second NFL start, the
Rams will not be able to hold the ball long enough to provide the D a break. If Goff is to be successful, he must find some way to complete passes down the field. He was 0 for 5 this past Sunday on throws that traveled 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Speaking of last week,
Drew Brees presents a much stiffer challenge than
Miami's Ryan Tannehill for L.A.'s secondary. And Brees will bring it for more than just the final five minutes, too.
#LAvsNO
Sunday 1 PM ET FOX
23
14
I remember back in 1995, when folks in Miami were talking
Super Bowl. It was Don Shula's swan song for the franchise, and the fans thought their Fins were loaded. Then the
49ers went into Joe Robbie Stadium (as it was known back before our beloved corporate sponsors got involved) and crushed the
Dolphins on "Monday Night Football," 44-20. Now Miami has won five in a row, and the fans are once again fired up about their Fins. The way to beat this
Dolphins defense is by torching the secondary. But I don't see
Colin Kaepernick doing that.
Trivia: Which Niners quarterback threw for 382 yards and four touchdowns in that '95 MNF win? Which
Dolphins running back -- who had been hired away from UPS -- scored on a touchdown run? #30
#SFvsMIA
Sunday 1 PM ET CBS
24
20
Definitely one of the tougher games to pick this Sunday. The
Chargers have been in every game this year -- literally -- with all of their losses being decided by one score or less. Don't see that changing this week. Anticipate less-risky throws from
Philip Rivers this time around, as the veteran quarterback was visibly dejected after his four fourth-quarter interceptions cost his team the game
in Week 10. Coming off the bye,
Melvin Gordon should be the most productive of Rivers' arsenal against a
Texans run defense that hasn't been that good. Can
Brock Osweiler make enough quality throws on third down and in the red zone? That's the key.
#SDvsHOU
Sunday 4:05 PM ET FOX
26
14
Without question, this is the game everyone is looking forward to this week. Maybe not. Most analysts think the
Seahawks are making their annual stretch run toward the postseason, emboldened by
the blowout win over the Eagles, as well as
the victory at New England in Week 10. Nobody seems to be taking the Bucs seriously. Remember, this Tampa Bay squad
beat the Falcons in Atlanta,
took the Raiders deep into overtime and just
toppled the Chiefs at their place. Worth watching: The Mike Evans-
Richard Sherman matchup. Will the All-Pro corner travel with Evans no matter where he goes in the formation? Evans is the most targeted wideout in the NFL. Tampa Bay sure could use 100 rushing yards from
Doug Martin. So could about 1,000,000 fantasy owners playing Call of Duty 18 in their dorm rooms.
#SEAvsTB
Sunday 4:25 PM ET CBS
28
14
The
Jets always seem to play the
Patriots tough. But what is Todd Bowles going to get from his offense? Do you believe in FitzMagic?? Probably not. Meanwhile, New England is coming back from a long West Coast trip that could cause them to come out flat -- but flat enough to lose to a struggling team starting a quarterback with 13 picks in nine games? Well, Bowles' group
is coming out of a bye week. Hopefully that translates to fresh legs for
Matt Forte.
Fun fact: The
Jets blitz more than any defense in the NFL (37.3 percent of pass plays), and
Tom Brady owns the highest passer rating against the blitz among quarterbacks (124.0). We're going to depart this blurb before we get more negative.
#NEvsNYJ
Sunday 4:25 PM ET CBS
30
27
A lot of people think this is a trap game for the
Raiders. Look, I am as concerned as anyone that they could be sluggish after potentially disregarding the warning about the water
in Mexico. I have personal experience, having lost weight unintentionally after taking in some of that water on Spring Break a few years back.
If
Derek Carr is on, I have a hard time seeing an Oakland loss.
Amari Cooper has been a stud.
Michael Crabtree should be more than motivated, coming off a tough outing in which he suffered a couple of drops. Carolina gets after the quarterback, but considering Carr's protection has been tops in the league, they won't be able to mitigate a secondary that is 27th in net passing yards allowed (which includes all the sacks) and tied for 23rd in touchdowns allowed.
#CARvsOAK
Sunday 8:30 PM ET NBC
21
17
Another in what I believe will be a low-scoring deal. Although the
Chiefs enter this one
nursing key injuries -- namely to Defensive Player of the Year candidate
Marcus Peters (hip) and sack leader
Dee Ford (hamstring) -- the Denver offense has struggled often this season. The
Broncos' defense, however, has picked up the slack with three touchdowns of its own. Last time out, the special teams unit delivered a rarity of all rarities:
the game-winning blocked PAT return. The key to Gary Kubiak's (and ultimately,
Trevor Siemian's) success will be if
Devontae Booker can get it going. Booker has received the bulk of the workload over the last four games, but has averaged a paltry 3.3 yards per carry during that stretch. The difference in this AFC West tilt, though, will be
Alex Smith, who has struggled the last three games.
Fun fact: The
Broncos are 7-0 this season when scoring at least 21 points. When they fall short of that mark? 0-3.
#KCvsDEN
Monday 8:30 PM ET ESPN
30
24
Typing this while watching the 1994
Thanksgiving classic between the
Packers and
Cowboys, which featured Brett Favre and Jason Garrett. If you are old enough to recall that game, you might remember Favre balling out and Sterling Sharpe scoring three touchdowns. Ultimately, Favre's defense was unable to stop the inexperienced Garrett in the road loss. We might see a similar outcome in Philadelphia this weekend, as I expect Rodgers to try to mitigate the hemorrhaging on defense (given what we saw
last Sunday night). Meanwhile,
Carson Wentz might be inexperienced, much like Garrett was in '94, but with this being his 11th start, I expect him to improve. Wentz began the season playing like Joe Montana -- then, when defenses caught up to him, the rookie regressed. Through the first three games, Wentz posted a 140.0 passer rating on passes that traveled 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Over the last seven games, Wentz's rating dipped to 29.9 on those same throws. This is the time of year when, if Wentz is as capable as advertised, he will implement what he's seen on film the last two months.
Fun fact (unless you are a Cheesehead): The
Eagles are only allowing 9.5 points per game at home this season.
#GBvsPHI
