Let's just make this a giant thread with tips and info for the MLB season!!

[barman]

Cleveland is the more complete team right now. Im almost willing to call them the most complete team in baseball.

But everyone is DETROIT,DETROIT,DETROIT.

Would not be shocked to see them miss the playoffs altogether if the AL EAST 2nd place team has a better record, because I dont see them beating out cleveland.

It's not unreasonable to suggest that of all the teams in the majors, Detroit is likely to be as overvalued in preseason as anyone other than maybe Boston, or NY Mets (if Santana deal is completed).

 

[barman]

Here's an easy one that most experienced bettors will know but some of the rookies may not be aware of...

ALWAYS check the wind at Wrigley before you make a bet. The wind effects the totals so much there that it's crazy. The wind blowing in at Wrigley and the wind blowing out at Wrigley could move the total 2 runs or more so be aware. Just because Under 10 +115 looks juicy with Zambrano and Harang on the mound might not look near as juicy with the wind blowing out at 35 MPH. There is no ballpark in the game where the wind plays near as big of a factor in runs scored.

Ayuh...I need to gather the numbers, but I'm fairly sure that games in Wrigley which go off at 9.5 or less tilt to the Under and games that go off at 10.5 tilt to the Over.

So yes, if you see a 10.5 and Zambrano/Harang are working, you should not jump right into the Under. The inverse is true if you see 9.5 and both teams are tossing 3rd or 4th starters.

 

[SC_trojan]

agree with choptalk on detroit being overvalued. Their pen sucks, Todd Jones blows, Verlander gets dead arm at the end of the season and Maggz had a great season last year, but he will come back to reality.

 

[CapNCash]

bet all dogs

bet all overs

 

[SC_trojan]

just my experience, but never have I seen a player control a win or loss as much as Pujols. Been on both sides of Albert's 3 run Jack's.

 

[SC_trojan]

bet all dogs

bet all overs

:lol:

 

[barman]

He kicks ass in Tampa. I remember him having an amazing record there in Tropicana.

That's correct.

Wakefield at Trop

20G, 14 GS

9-1 -- 2.41 era -- 1.09 whip....Opp BA .198

Wakefield at HumpDome

11G, 11 GS

7-3 -- 3.95 era -- 1.16 whip....Opp BA .214

 

[barman]

Humble opinion that SplitStats vs Opposing Teams have decent value if weighed only against previous 5 years.

A few exceptions would be records against Bos/NYY/ATL because for the most part those teams have produced very consistent results going back up to 10 years. So opposing records vs them and in their ballparks have comparative value.

The inverse of that would be records against PIT/WAS/KC/TBAY because those teams have also shown pretty consistent results going back 10 years.

Modest caveat on that last segment is that I honestly believe Devil Rays could finally push 80 wins this season.

 

[SC_trojan]

being familiar on pre vs post all star pitchers.

Z & Santana are post for example...

 

[FairWarning]

White Sox and Tigers overs should be solid, neither has a bullpen.

Reds wins over worth a look as Dusty will burn out the whole pitching staff to show he's right.

 

[JakeT.]

heh

Jake, you seem to be one of the brighter contributors we have here.

And you're saying the "Knuckler on Humid Days" Angle was the first strategy that came to mind when looking ahead to the MLB season?

%^_

It's the first that came to mind when I started the thread I suppose. It's one of my favorite "hey look at me I'm smart" quotes when talking about MLB betting haha.

 

[nhoj]

Go against Woody Williams everytime and your good for the year. I also suggest the same for Andy Petitte this year as well.

 

[Rawpimple]

Ill give this a try



Choptalk has won the past 165 years betting MLB. Follow him.

 

[Mr.Smith]

if the yankees have lost 2 in a row to a bad team, look to fade the yankees in game 3 after the squares bomb in money all evening before the game starts and bump the line up into dumb or ridiculous territory. squares cannot resist games like this they are drawn in from all over as if by magnets "Yankees cant lose again!!!" "its free money!"' "Yankees wont want to be swept!" etc

you can look for the same thing with the red sox, the red sox can be pretty public too

 

[JakeT.]

Great stuff everyone. Thanks for contributing. Anyone else out there who is gun shy want to add? I have a few more if we get a little more participation...

 

[Harvey Dent]

Go against Woody Williams everytime and your good for the year. I also suggest the same for Andy Petitte this year as well.

Going against Andy means going against a damn good lineup

good luck with that

 

[JakeT.]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?sort=runsFactor&season=2007

Adding this link. Check it out. It's posted in the MLB forum as well.

 

[newb411breaker19]

thanks for the link Jake.

You have to be careful looking at park factors, i used the formula in michael murray's book, but i look at the last 5 or 6 seasons because there is a lot of variance in park factors.

 

[red007]

sf giants offense might be the worst in the history of MLB

 

[JakeT.]

sf giants offense might be the worst in the history of MLB

They will be pretty bad but I think that pitching staff can guide them to at least .500 and probably better. Cain and Lincecum are going to have very nice years and you could do alot worse than Zito and Lowry. Still, on offense, Aurilia is old, Durham is old, Bonds is gone, Rowand is overrated, Vizquel is old, Dave Roberts is old. Almost the whole team is gonna be retired in a few years it seems.