Let's get out of Alaska Thread!! AK's Picks

[akphidelt]

Howdy all, Alaska is a very cold and dark place. I do not want to spend another winter here! So we are going to make some very strategic sports picks and accumulate enough cash so I can buy a small condo in Miami or something. The goal is $50K. The starting point is $5K. Let the picking begin!

NBA Tonight

Toronto/Charlotte Under 194
--Both these teams are really bad and I just don't think either team will reach 90 points. It will be a slow Eastern Conference game with probably about 1000 people in the stands.
(262.50 to win 250)

Houston Rockets Team Total Under 89.5
--Houston is a solid team and can very well win this game like 80-76. I honestly don't think Houston will win, and I think they will score around 75-80 points.
(330 to win 300)

San Antonio Spurs 1H -2.5
--I may end up taking the game line also, but I just think if any half the Spurs should control the game early and possibly lose it in the second half with OKC's youth. Could be completely off here, but I think this is a solid bet.
(230 to win 200)

Alright those are my 3 picks, I will be up front with you all saying I am no where near a professional gambler, I do it for fun... don't have any magical formulas, just straight capping. So lets do this!!

Good luck all

 

[HighFlyinKilla]

.
Toronto/Charlotte Under 194
--Both these teams are really bad and I just don't think either team will reach 90 points. It will be a slow Eastern Conference game with probably about 1000 people in the stands.
(262.50 to win 250)

Very poor analysis on this game. Toronto plays an uptempo game and scores 96 ppg on the rd while giving up 102 ppg. Tor overs are 9-2 with Shawn Marion. Bobcats are a lot better than you give them credit.

 

[akphidelt]

Very poor analysis on this game. Toronto plays an uptempo game and scores 96 ppg on the rd while giving up 102 ppg. Tor overs are 9-2 with Shawn Marion.

Touche, however I wouldn't quite go as far as saying they play "that" uptempo of a game. Their scores seam to follow the teams they are playing. Against defensive teams it's a low scoring game, against runners they get up there in that 100 pt range.

They've already played Charlotte twice this year.
Game 1 - 89-79
Game 2 - 93-86

So, we will see. Im thinkin the 180 range so that is why the value was there for me. But that's why it's called gambling!

 

[HighFlyinKilla]

Touche, however I wouldn't quite go as far as saying they play "that" uptempo of a game. Their scores seam to follow the teams they are playing. Against defensive teams it's a low scoring game, against runners they get up there in that 100 pt range.

They've already played Charlotte twice this year.
Game 1 - 89-79
Game 2 - 93-86

So, we will see. Im thinkin the 180 range so that is why the value was there for me. But that's why it's called gambling!

Those games were at the begining of the season before trades and coaching changes. Both these teams are play very differently now.

 

[akphidelt]

Those games were at the begining of the season before trades and coaching changes. Both these teams are play very differently now.

8 of Charlottes last 12 games have been under 200 pts. Including 7 of those under 190 points, I really don't see what is so different about their game. And 2 of the over 200 point games were to Golden State and the Knicks which just about every game those 2 teams play is over 200.

I think Detroit is a fairly equivalent team to Charlottes style of good defense and fundamental half court offense. It took overtime the last game between the Pistons and the Raptors to get to 194.

So maybe we are interpreting things different but we will see after the game is played what analysis was correct. Hopefully mine, but if its yours I will start tailing you more, haha. Good Luck

 

[akphidelt]

Wow they couldn't miss a shot the last 3 minutes of the 1st quarter. 49 points. Kind of scary but still a fighting chance! We need a second quarter with 35 points!!

 

[HighFlyinKilla]

Also with unders coming in 13-4 through the weekend the overs are going to hit tonite anyway. Its unavoidable because the unders will not keep cashing at that rate.

 

[akphidelt]

Also with unders coming in 13-4 through the weekend the overs are going to hit tonite anyway. Its unavoidable because the unders never hit 3 nights in a row.

If they shoot like they did the last 3 minutes it is. But Toronto played last night. Hopefully they get gassed and slow the game down some more!

 

[akphidelt]

WOW, I was off on this pick. They look like the Suns/Warriors last night!!

 

[akphidelt]

You know, this might be a good sign. If Charlotte has a large lead, the 4th can just be a "lets get this game over with" quarter and score like 38-40 points.

That's my dream!

 

[TopPicks]

Or they could start hitting 3 pointers since they're only a combined 5 - 22.

 

[akphidelt]

San Antonio Spurs 1H -2.5 (230 to win 200)

WOW!! Frikkin OKC made this one a nail biter after the first quarter and the SPURS up 15.

Forum Total
1-0 (+$ 200)

 

[akphidelt]

Toronto/Charlotte Under 194 (262.50 to win 250) LOSS
Houston Rockets Team Total Under 89.5 (330 to win 300) LOSS
San Antonio Spurs 1H -2.5 (230 to win 200) WIN

What a horrible first night. The only saving grace was that I picked the Spurs 1H instead of game line. I would not have picked the Rockets team total if I knew Yao was not playing before I made the bet. The raptors bet was just a bad one except that they almost made it happen, hahaha... that was a close 4th quarter.

For Tuesday the 17th, Im leaning right now towards
Hawks/Kings Over 202
Celtics
Spurs

Ill post my final picks later. I'm going to do a little more research. Good luck all!

Forum Record
1-2 (- $ 392.50)