let's discuss nfl season win totals

[cashducats]

i haven't played any season win totals yet, but have picked out some possible plays and wanted to see if we could get some dialogue/insight.

my possible plays at 1st glance are:

broncos un 9 -105 (heritage)
packers un 10.5 +120 (heritage
browns ov 4.5 -150 (heritage)
texans un 8.5 -125 (heritage)
chiefs ov 9.5 -135 (heritage)
rams un 7.5 -200 (heritage)
saints un 7.5 -130 (heritage)
giants ov 8 -130 (heritage)
eagles un 7.5 -200 (heritage)

i will be giving my reasons for each of these possible plays, and hope to hear some feedback and opinions of others. i'll pick 3 or 4 of the above plays before the season starts.

 

[Ubuksi]

Packers have the easiest schedule in the league and will have the clear qb advantage in 14 of 16 games, with Indy and Seattle being the other two, both of which at home... I feel that 11 wins is highly possible having to face the AFC south and NFC east this year... Even if they split with Minnesota and lose to Indy and Seattle, that gives them 13 wins.. It's over 10.5 or nothing for me on the packers.

 

[cashducats]

the case for broncos un 9 season wins...

1. they don't have a qb, i know they really didn't have one last yr either, but their current situation is much worse than last year's. their defense is good, but i'm sure it will drop off from the level they were playing at last year. they lost a couple guys to free agency and opposing offensive coordinators have had all off season to try and figure them out.

2. super bowl hangover. they aren't the patriots who seem to be the only team that doesn't get the super bowl hangover.

3. lets look at their schedule: divisional games i think best case scenario for them is 3-3 but more likely 2-4. they'll get swept by kc, and split with sd and oak. maaaaybe they sweep oak or sd, but i don't think so.

best case scenario is splitting 1st 4 games, losing to car, beating indi, losing to cinci and beating tb on the road (real possibility they lose on the road in tb, it will be their 2nd road game in a row and 2nd long plane ride). 2-2 after 4 games best case scenario for them.

next 4 games: beat atl, lose to sd on a short week road game, beat houston at home and maybe beat sd at home they will have come off a short week playing houston on monday night. lets just say 3-1 best case scenario for them.

next 4 games: lose to oak on the road, beat saints on the road, lose to kc at home, maybe beat jags on the road, i think they could lose this game very easily. 2-2 best case scenario.

last 4 games: beat tenn on road although 2nd long road trip in a row, lost to patriots at home, lose to kc on the road and lose last game of yr to oak in a game that will prob have no playoff implications for broncos and might have some for raiders. 1-3

the above scenario gives them 8-8 and i think that's generous. the best part is you don't lose the bet unless they get to 1- wins. HIGHLY unlikes IMO.

 

[Ubuksi]

The Broncos have only been under .500 5 times since 1976 and have finished 8-8 8 times. That's 13 times in the past 40 years with less than 9 wins. While I agree that if a play were to be made, under 9 would be the play; but denvers organization fortitude gives me enough pause to say I'd just stay away, even with their questionable qb situation.

 

[cashducats]

the case for packers un 10.5 wins:

1. teams like the packers, steelers, cowboys, and raiders will always be overvalued because they have huge fan bases that are spread throughout the country. so i believe the packers are slightly over valued to begin with.

2. this is a team that relies entirely on aaron rodgers. any team that relies soooo heavily on 1 player needs that player to play in all 16 games. rodgers has had injuries in the past, so there is that possibility. small advantage again for the under.

3. no real playmakers for the packers on offense besides rodgers. nelson is back but 1st year after acl and he is over 30. i don't expect him to pick up where he left off. lacy? no, maybe 3-4 games where he does something, then the weight will start adding back on. defense will not be as good as last year either.

3. winning 11 games in the nfl is a difficult task. many of the super bowl winners didn't win 11 games the year they won the super bowl. I only have to find 6 losses to win this. let me see if i can come up with them.

1st 4 games: split jax and minn (packers last 2 preseason games on the road and 1st two reg season games on the road), beat det at home, beat(???) giants at home (although giants have a history of owning rodgers and winning in gb). 3-1 with a real possibility of 2-2

2nd 4 games: beat dallas, beat chi, lose to atl on road, beat indi. 3-1

next 4 games: beat tenn, lose to wash, beat phil. beat houston, 3-1

last 4 games: lose to seahawks, lose to chi on the road, beat minn, lose to det on road. 1-3

ehhh.... after going through the schedule, this may be too tight. the 1st four games could go 2-2 and last 4 could go 2-2 but that gives them 10 wins. too close... will probably end up passing on this one.

 

[cashducats]

Packers have the easiest schedule in the league and will have the clear qb advantage in 14 of 16 games, with Indy and Seattle being the other two, both of which at home... I feel that 11 wins is highly possible having to face the AFC south and NFC east this year... Even if they split with Minnesota and lose to Indy and Seattle, that gives them 13 wins.. It's over 10.5 or nothing for me on the packers.

after going through the schedule i think your right, i'm will probably stay away from this one. no way they get to 13 wins, but too close to bet on.

 

[cashducats]

The Broncos have only been under .500 5 times since 1976 and have finished 8-8 8 times. That's 13 times in the past 40 years with less than 9 wins. While I agree that if a play were to be made, under 9 would be the play; but denvers organization fortitude gives me enough pause to say I'd just stay away, even with their questionable qb situation.

didn't know that but they have had decent qb's from most of that time period. elway, griese was serviceable, plummer, and manning. can't think of the other guys they had off the top of my head. even if they get 9 wins i don't lose this bet, that's the good part about it.

 

[cashducats]

the case for rams un 7.5 wins:

1. qb situation.

2. jeff fisher.

3. 1st 4 games: lost to SF on the road monday night, short week and seahawks at home. fisher always seems to get a split with seahawks but not this time! loss...at tb loss, at az loss. 0-4, maaaaybe 1-3 best case scenario.

next 4: buff win maybe, at det loss, home against giants loss. carolina loss. maybe they beat nyg, or buff or both of them.. lets call it 1-3 again.

next 4: at jets loss, beat miami at home, at saints possible win, at patriots loss. 2-2 best case.

last 4: beat atl at home, loss at seattle, beat sf at home, win at home over az (assuming az has nothing to play for) 3-1

that's 7-9 and being very generous with they get wins over. i will probably end up playing this one even with the high juice.

 

[cashducats]

the case for clev ov 4.5

1. hugh jackson is a good coach, he took a raiders team that was similar in ineptness to this browns team and got 8-8 out of them before being inexplicably fired.

2. cleveland is a laughing stock and probably undervalued by the public.

3. only need to find 5 wins, let me see if i can...
@philly
@tenn
dallas (romo might be back by their nov 6 game but just barely. i wouldn't be surprised if he retires. he probably should if he wants any kind of quality of life after football.)
san diego
maybe they get 1 or 2 division win somewhere. hugh jackson very familiar with the division. pitt game in november (rothlisberger usually injured around then)
jets at home is a possibility,
@miami is a possibility

good possibility i play this one.

 

[cashducats]

saints un 7.5
1. brees is a stat machine, but hasn't done anything of note since the super bowl.
2. i feel like sean payton is overrated as a head coach.
3. defense is absolutely the worst and not getting better in foreseable future.
4. teams i could see them getting a win over:
atl at home
den at home (maybe)
rams at home
det at home
tb at home
oak at home (maybe)
@ (sf maybe)

thats 7 games and being generous. i will probably be playing the un 7.5

 

[Yankees5560]

Cash..

my my top totals are

1. Denver under 9.5 -140..... Agree that Denver is in for a long season... This is a QB league and they have no QB and I expect the defense to regress a bit and for them to lose more than their share of the close games.

2. Rams under 7.5 .... Again agree with above.... No QB.... And don't see them improving and actually wouldn't be surprised if they turned the reigns over to Goff midway through the season

3. Giants over 8..... Improved defense with several free signings on defensive side of field and now with Romo injury... Barring major injury don't see them at 7-9.

also looking at over 7 for tb as I expect them to be an improved team and expect them to be no worse than 7-9 with a good shot at 8.

 

[cashducats]

Cash..

my my top totals are

1. Denver under 9.5 -140..... Agree that Denver is in for a long season... This is a QB league and they have no QB and I expect the defense to regress a bit and for them to lose more than their share of the close games.

2. Rams under 7.5 .... Again agree with above.... No QB.... And don't see them improving and actually wouldn't be surprised if they turned the reigns over to Goff midway through the season

3. Giants over 8..... Improved defense with several free signings on defensive side of field and now with Romo injury... Barring major injury don't see them at 7-9.

also looking at over 7 for tb as I expect them to be an improved team and expect them to be no worse than 7-9 with a good shot at 8.

i liked the giants initially as well, they lost a lot of close games last year, their o-line scares me though. defense is much improved. i will go through their schedule tomorrow.

 

[dealiak]

I like the broncos under as well....QB is so important in the game today and I think your right on they have no one proven. I already bet the browns over....public perception is key here everyone thinks they are a joke and they have been but I am also expecting some line value early this season. I also bet hou under and cowgirls under.

 

[dealiak]

I also like NE to win the division. -220 odds are great considering they always win the division. Bill best coach in football and back qb will not be asked to do much and what he does ask him to do he'll be ready for.

 

[cashducats]

the case for giants ov 8 wins:

1. they lost some close games last yr they should have won and and also had one of the worst defenses in the league last yr and finished 6-10. this yr their d will be much improved and i expect them to win the close games they lost last year. that alone gets them to at least 8 wins.

2. their offensive line is offensive again this yr but their offense was still a better than avg unit so i don't expect that to drop off.

3. Romo's injury, redskins will regress to mediocrity, and eagles should be horrible. almost be default that leaves the giants to win the division with a 9-7 or 10-6 record.

let's go through the schedule and see if i can get to at least 9 wins conservatively....

1st 4 games... beat dallas, beat Saints, beat Wash, beat minn 4-0
2nd 4 games... lose gb (even though they have had success against rodgers at gb in the past), lose balt at home, beat rams at london, beat philly at home 2-2
3rd 4 games .. lose to cinci, beat chi, beat cleve, lose at pitt, 2-2
last 4 games.. lose to dallas (i assume romo will be back and they end up splitting season series), beat det, lose at philly (they seem to have trouble with philly even when philly is horrible), beat wash to win division 2-2

that gives them a record of 10-6, gives me a cushion if they somehow lose last game of season to wash.

i will prob bet this ov

 

[cashducats]

kc ov 9.5

1. no one can dominate mediocre divisions like andy reid. he's a great reg season coach. i don't think anyone can dispute that.
2. with denver presumably falling off and the raiders not being quite ready yet i think kc wins division and get to at least 10 wins
3. turns out niners ditched wrong qb (alex smith playing with a chip on his shoulder which is weird to think about since he was a #1 overall draft pick) he has to be getting real comfortable in andy reid's offense in his 3rd yr now.

let's go through the schedule..

1st 4 games... beat sd, beat houston, beat jets at home, lose to pitt on road 3-1
2nd 4 games..beat oak on road off kc's bye week, beat saints at home, lose to indy on road, beat jax at home 3-1
3rd 4 games... lose to carolina on road, beat tb at home, beat den on road, beat atl on road 3-1
4th 4 games.. lose to oak at home on short week after playing atl on road, beat tenn at home, beat den at home, lose to sd on road 2-2

11-5 ....same as last yr. i think it realistic that they get to 12 wins even. 9.5 is generous.

i'll prob play this over.

 

[cashducats]

i'll go through a couple more tomorrow...

 

[Biz]

the case for clev ov 4.5

1. hugh jackson is a good coach, he took a raiders team that was similar in ineptness to this browns team and got 8-8 out of them before being inexplicably fired.

I'm a long time Raiders fan. There were many reasons jackson was fired, it was far from inexplicable. Starting with throwing the players under the bus after the season ending loss.

He's a very good coordinator, but you can have him as your head coach. Not me.

 

[cashducats]

I'm a long time Raiders fan. There were many reasons jackson was fired, it was far from inexplicable. Starting with throwing the players under the bus after the season ending loss.

He's a very good coordinator, but you can have him as your head coach. Not me.

oh really? tell me more. i'm very interested. i never understood why he was fired

 

[Slurve~Ball]

I like NWO to hit 8 wins. Better than last years team. Easy sched this year. Last time Brees was in final season of contract he had his best season ever. Plus he's magically the highest paid endorsement deal player in NFL this year. That always bodes well. They start 1-0 after beating Dennis Allen's old team. I wont be shocked to see them start 8-2 or 8-3.