I'm convinced this is profitable, or close to it.
Barry has 20 HR in 91 games....hitting a HR in 22% of games (if he only hit one each time)
I count 4,000 outfield seats with a legit chance to catch a HR ball, including the gap in dead center as "seats." This includes left center seats and does not include seats in the top sections of the deepest parts of the park. If he goes the other way, it'll probably land in the first 8 rows.
If you pay 1000 men $30 for 90% of the rights to the ball.....and there is a home run hit....I give them a 1/3 shot to catch the ball. Not 1/4 since there are 4000 seats, but 1/3 because your MEN will fight for the ball moreso than a woman or child would. Figuring 1/4 of the people in the outfield are women and children, I'm subjectively going with a 1/3 chance to catch the ball if it is hit.
McGwire's 62nd was worth 3 million. Auction experts though agree Barrys ball will be worth 1 million maximum, and likely 500K.
If you sign over 10% of the rights, you are paying $30,000 for a chance at $450,000
Going back to chances of Barry hitting a HR....he has 3 HR in 25 career AB against Penny. Taking into account all other factors such as: Dodger stadium is a pitchers park, Penny is a righty, these are night games, Barry has the pressure on him, Barry wants to get it done sooner rather than later, Barry will feed off the booing of the crowd, ETC....I give Barry a 22% chance to hit a HR tonight. I looked for odds on betting websites and didn't see any immediately.
So barry has a 22% chance to hit it, and you have a 30% chance to catch it if he hits it. That gives you a 6% chance of catching a Bonds HR tonight.
Stanford Wong tells me that for events with 6% probability, you need odds of 14.38:1 to break even in the long run. $30k to win $450K is a +1500 investment.
Therefore, it is slightly profitable. Of course, much of this is very subjective. 22% chance of hitting a HR may be a bit high. $30 is pretty low per ticket but if you COULD find people to accept $30 cash for this opportunity, its a good deal for you. Also you may negotiate the 90% rights up to 95% or even 100% with some people.
Barry has 20 HR in 91 games....hitting a HR in 22% of games (if he only hit one each time)
I count 4,000 outfield seats with a legit chance to catch a HR ball, including the gap in dead center as "seats." This includes left center seats and does not include seats in the top sections of the deepest parts of the park. If he goes the other way, it'll probably land in the first 8 rows.
If you pay 1000 men $30 for 90% of the rights to the ball.....and there is a home run hit....I give them a 1/3 shot to catch the ball. Not 1/4 since there are 4000 seats, but 1/3 because your MEN will fight for the ball moreso than a woman or child would. Figuring 1/4 of the people in the outfield are women and children, I'm subjectively going with a 1/3 chance to catch the ball if it is hit.
McGwire's 62nd was worth 3 million. Auction experts though agree Barrys ball will be worth 1 million maximum, and likely 500K.
If you sign over 10% of the rights, you are paying $30,000 for a chance at $450,000
Going back to chances of Barry hitting a HR....he has 3 HR in 25 career AB against Penny. Taking into account all other factors such as: Dodger stadium is a pitchers park, Penny is a righty, these are night games, Barry has the pressure on him, Barry wants to get it done sooner rather than later, Barry will feed off the booing of the crowd, ETC....I give Barry a 22% chance to hit a HR tonight. I looked for odds on betting websites and didn't see any immediately.
So barry has a 22% chance to hit it, and you have a 30% chance to catch it if he hits it. That gives you a 6% chance of catching a Bonds HR tonight.
Stanford Wong tells me that for events with 6% probability, you need odds of 14.38:1 to break even in the long run. $30k to win $450K is a +1500 investment.
Therefore, it is slightly profitable. Of course, much of this is very subjective. 22% chance of hitting a HR may be a bit high. $30 is pretty low per ticket but if you COULD find people to accept $30 cash for this opportunity, its a good deal for you. Also you may negotiate the 90% rights up to 95% or even 100% with some people.
What do you think WVU? The above sound pretty close?
I noticed you said only a 5% chance to catch if he hits it with 1000 people, and I said 30%
I couldn't find exact numbers on the outfield seats but I would think there are 10,000 max.....then selectively choosing the sections he is most likely going to hit a HR too, eliminating the upper section in left center field for example which would be like 450 feet opposite field...I came out with 4000 possible seats where the ball would land....you have 1000 people out there gives you at least a 1/4 chance, and if you pick your people somewhat carefully I think you can get it a little better, though 1/3 might be pushing it
I noticed you said only a 5% chance to catch if he hits it with 1000 people, and I said 30%
I couldn't find exact numbers on the outfield seats but I would think there are 10,000 max.....then selectively choosing the sections he is most likely going to hit a HR too, eliminating the upper section in left center field for example which would be like 450 feet opposite field...I came out with 4000 possible seats where the ball would land....you have 1000 people out there gives you at least a 1/4 chance, and if you pick your people somewhat carefully I think you can get it a little better, though 1/3 might be pushing it
Well at least I have one person who agrees it could be +EV. I have saved 25k already though, lol. Choosing the people would be very difficult. I pretty much came to the conclusion that I would either be arrested or ignored if I set up a booth outside of the stadium trying to give away $25 for signatures.
