Let's break down - Affilction: Banned 7/19/08

[Uno]

Matchups:

<matchup>Fedor Emelianenko (Pictures) vs. Tim Sylvia (Pictures)

Josh Barnett (Pictures) vs. Pedro Rizzo (Pictures)

Andrei Arlovski (Pictures) vs. Ben Rothwell (Pictures)

Renato Sobral (Pictures) vs. Mike Whitehead (Pictures)

Matt Lindland (Pictures) vs. Fabio Negao (Pictures)

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (Pictures) vs. Vernon White

Aleksander Emelianenko (Pictures) vs. Paul Buentello (Pictures)

Vitor Belfort (Pictures) vs. Terry Martin (Pictures)

Justin Levens (Pictures) vs. Ray Lizama (Pictures)

Mike Pyle (Pictures) vs. JJ Ambrose (Pictures)

Savant Young (Pictures) vs. Mark Hominick (Pictures)
</matchup>

 

[Uno]

Sylvia is tempting at +300 isn't he? I don't think he should be favored by any means but I think this is inflated and carries some value.

Fedor has not fought in 2008 and has not fought anyone of this caliber since 2005 when he beat CroCop.

No doubt the guy has been the best in his career but is he THAT much better than Sylvia right now?

 

[sleung]

I broke down some of the fights already. Many miss matches.

Hey i hate Sylvia but he has a chance. I would not bet on him but i think he can put up a fight. I would rather bet on the over in rounds for that fight

I see some dogs victories like Ben Rothwell over Andrei Arlovski and Mike Whitehead +215 over Renato Sobral -275


http://www.fighting-mma.com/articles/2008/affliction-mma-betting-main-event.php

 

[TheBrainiac]

How is Tim gonna win this tho ? Very unlikely he will KO Fedor , sure wont sub him or GnP . Fedor can take him to ground at will almost any time unlike guys like Arlovski who was hyped as sambo expert and shit but guy has no clue on the ground .

 

[JakeT.]

How is Tim gonna win this tho ? Very unlikely he will KO Fedor , sure wont sub him or GnP . Fedor can take him to ground at will almost any time unlike guys like Arlovski who was hyped as sambo expert and shit but guy has no clue on the ground .

Tim can win by KO or boring decision. His takedown defense is very good and if he can stay, he should win. That being said, if it hits the ground he is in trouble.

 

[valdosta]

His takedown defense is way overrated. Is this in a ring? If so that's even worse for him.

 

[wired]

Fedor Emelianenko -375
Tim Sylvia +315

Josh Barnett -336
Pedro Rizzo +306

Fabio Negeo +350
Matt Lindland -400

Aleksander Emelianenko -320
Paul Buentello +301

Mike Whitehead +215
Renato Sobral -240

Source: http://www.bestfightodds.com


Fedor is not gonna have any problems clinching with Sylvia and taking him down. Imo parlaying the favourites is a pretty solid bet.

 

[sphincter]

if you look closely,you`ll notice that many of pride`s old stars have struggled outside of pride...and that surprises me...i was more of a pride fan than a ufc fan...

fedor is a beast...i agree...but,i`ve seen him buzzed more than once....he`s gonna have to navigate through that reach......he`s only 6 ft tall...and it`s been awhile since he faced a legit,dangerous heavyweight....a very tall,legit heavyweight...

i think it`s a dangerous match-up for fedor...particularly given the inactivity...

and remember..his only loss was via cut....sylvia `s a striker...`

 

[JakeT.]

His takedown defense is way overrated. Is this in a ring? If so that's even worse for him.

Timmy has good balance and hard punches with a good knee game. I'd say his takedown defense is as much offensive as it is defensive. Not your typical takedown D. He isn't overly hard to get down when grabbed, but getting inside on that long reach is what makes for trouble IMO.

 

[Mr_Mark]

cant wait for this weekend going to be some awesome fights really excited to see belfort guy is amazing

 

[Mr_Mark]

its really hard to go against fedor but if anyone is going to have a chance at beating him sylvia might be the best bet. fedor didnt look that impressive vs mark hunt but u still think he is going to win. but i wouldnt be at all suprised if tim pulls it out

 

[turbozed]

I think Aleks has a better chance of losing than Fedor, even though Aleks is fighting a comparatively inferior fighter. Aleks has exhibited a lack of focus in some of his fights and also hasn't been very active either. Fedor has questioned Aleks' focus and motivation a few times in interviews.

Yes, Tim has a good chance against Fedor, but it's hard to bet against Fedor since he remains a mystery as of late. Sure, the 2005 or 2006 Fedor who fought somewhat regularly would undoubtedly beat any HW that we could put in front of him. But it's now mid 2008, and, in the past year and a half, we've only seen Fedor beat up on Lindland, a great fighter but a MW, and Choi who is a huge fighter with legit K-1 skills but no track record in MMA. Obviously this doesn't provide enough evidence to make an informed decision whether he's still the same Fedor of a few years ago.

Incidentally, this mystery is also where the battle lines are drawn between Fedor-bashers and Fedor-supporters.

The anti-Fedor crowd's argument is that Fedor has been 'too inactive' and has thus become 'irrelevant.' Well, regardless of inactivity and fighting questionable opponents, this doesn't necessarily mean he has lost the skill we know for sure he once had. It seems to be wishful thinking on their part to hope that a year or so has rusted out the most dominant HW in MMA history. Absent evidence to support that theory, saying that Fedor's inactivity definitely *will* be the reason he loses this fight probably reflects a desire that this be true.

On the other hand, the Fedor supporters also don't have much evidence to support the idea that Fedor can still dominate in the HW division since his last fight at that weight was NYE 2006. A year and a half layoff from top competition should be a concern for any fighter, and those few seconds of fighting Fedor had in 07 doesn't really give us much of an idea of where he is at. Still, at least one fighter in the HW division came back from a long layoff to win a high profile HW fight and was in a similar situation (actually more than similar because Sylvia was involved in that one as well).

I think the best bet here in Sylvia/Fedor is to stay away. If this is the same Fedor that dominated the HW division for years, then he is justifiably the big favorite. However, if you were to put a gun to my head I would bet on Sylvia, merely for the fact that +300 is a nice number amongst any two competitive fighters and anything can happen in MMA.

 

[fivestarjake]

barnett over rizzo by mass destruction.

 

[valdosta]

Not your typical takedown D. He isn't overly hard to get down when grabbed, but getting inside on that long reach is what makes for trouble IMO.

Which is more of what I was talking about. Monson,Nog and Couture all got him down. Hell Ausserio Silva would have gotten him down as well if Sylvia wouldn't have grabbed the fence. Fedor has a BIG speed advantage. I can't see him not getting a clinch and takedown. When he gets it to the ground Sylvia is obviously way overmatched.

 

[TheBrainiac]

There was something about Alex on sherdog main page . That guy who went to Russia to train with them said Alex was in great shape etc .

 

[FearTheRaven]

sylvia will get owned, god i hate that ******

 

[sleung]

i hate Sylvia, btu i dont think he will get owned like everyone thinks

he wil back away and try no to get shot on

this will go into the late rounds i'm betting on the over in this fight

 

[turbozed]

I might just put a few bucks down on Sylvia so in case Fedor loses, I'll have money to spend on alcohol that will be used to drown my sorrows and remove the image of Sylvia winning from my brain.

 

[TheBrainiac]

Whats up with Vitor ? Is he still interested or not , if he is I guess he can win this one if not he might be KOed here .

 

[TheBrainiac]

Wow , Alexander down to - 285 against Paul '' Knocked out in 4 seconds '' Buentello . See no reason not to take this line . I read everywhere that Alex has been training like a beast and I am sure he wants to win this one with so much money being involded in this event and attention this would be a good step to upper his payments for upcoming fights . I dont see Paul knocking out Alex not to speak taking him down and subbing him . This smells like a highlight reel KO in the first round with Paul laying on the ground calling for his mom .