[FONT="](4) Michigan State (26-8)[/FONT]
[FONT="]Michigan State won the Big 10 tournament championship after losing 7 of their final 12 regular season games and now everyone loves the Spartans’ chances of winning the Championship. In fact, all 5 analysts on ESPN’s NCAA selection show picked Michigan State to win the championship, citing that the Spartans are the best team in the nation when everyone is healthy. Michigan State had some key injuries this season (4 starters missed a total of 23 games) and the Spartans were 12-5 when at least one of the starters was out and 14-3 in games with all 5 starters playing (losses to North Carolina, Illinois and Ohio State). Michigan State’s rating in those 17 games with all 5 starters playing is a couple of points better than their overall rating and would put them at #6 in my ratings, which certainly makes them worthy of a higher seed. However, it seems like a lot of people are picking the Spartans to win the tournament so I don’t think there is good value in picking them to win it all.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Michigan State won the Big 10 tournament championship after losing 7 of their final 12 regular season games and now everyone loves the Spartans’ chances of winning the Championship. In fact, all 5 analysts on ESPN’s NCAA selection show picked Michigan State to win the championship, citing that the Spartans are the best team in the nation when everyone is healthy. Michigan State had some key injuries this season (4 starters missed a total of 23 games) and the Spartans were 12-5 when at least one of the starters was out and 14-3 in games with all 5 starters playing (losses to North Carolina, Illinois and Ohio State). Michigan State’s rating in those 17 games with all 5 starters playing is a couple of points better than their overall rating and would put them at #6 in my ratings, which certainly makes them worthy of a higher seed. However, it seems like a lot of people are picking the Spartans to win the tournament so I don’t think there is good value in picking them to win it all.[/FONT]
(1) Arizona (30-4)
Arizona is the best defensive team in the nation but the Wildcats are susceptible to cold shooting (a combined 8 for 38 from 3-point range in losses to Cal, Arizona State, and Oregon) and their defense can be penetrated by teams with highly efficient offenses and individual offensive talent, such as UCLA, who led by stud Kyle Anderson just beat the Cats in the Pac 12 Tournament Championship game (a team like Creighton also fits the bill). The other problem with Arizona is their horrible free throw shooting (65.5%), which becomes more important in the NCAA Tournament when they are likely to play close games in later rounds. Arizona is certainly not a perfect team but there aren’t any truly dominant teams this season and the Wildcats are my 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] rated team heading into the tournament. It depends on their draw, but Arizona seems like a #1 seed that is going to slip up along the way against a team that defends well and has individual offensive talent.
Arizona is the best defensive team in the nation but the Wildcats are susceptible to cold shooting (a combined 8 for 38 from 3-point range in losses to Cal, Arizona State, and Oregon) and their defense can be penetrated by teams with highly efficient offenses and individual offensive talent, such as UCLA, who led by stud Kyle Anderson just beat the Cats in the Pac 12 Tournament Championship game (a team like Creighton also fits the bill). The other problem with Arizona is their horrible free throw shooting (65.5%), which becomes more important in the NCAA Tournament when they are likely to play close games in later rounds. Arizona is certainly not a perfect team but there aren’t any truly dominant teams this season and the Wildcats are my 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] rated team heading into the tournament. It depends on their draw, but Arizona seems like a #1 seed that is going to slip up along the way against a team that defends well and has individual offensive talent.
